April 5: Is Biden getting his way in the Middle East?

In which, American meddling pays dividends in Israeli politics, France eyes its own Security Council resolution, and Trump and Biden reach new lows in rallying their bases on Easter.

This was a week that seemed to be dominated by subplots. It wasn’t just the Israel-Hamas war, it was the humanitarian aid subplot, the UN subplot, the Biden-Bibi subplot, etc.

It wasn’t just the 2024 election, it was the Trump and his pandering to evangelicals subplot, and Biden and his Easter snub subplot.

It wasn’t just the economy, it was the stock market subplot, the Fed subplot, etc.

You get the picture. So this week’s brief is largely going to be tracking subplots, but don’t forget the broader context in which these stories are occurring!

Did Biden get his way in the Middle East?

The Biden administration created quite the backlash in Jerusalem over the last couple of weeks by first hosting opposition leader Benny Gantz in DC and snubbing Biden, then calling for new elections to oust Netanyahu, then returning to the “Palestinian state to get broader regional peace” position, all while continuing to pressure Israel to “do more” (publicly, purposefully nonspecific) to ensure civilian safety and getting humanitarian aid into Gaza, and pressuring the Palestinian Authority to reform. 

This week, it seems like the pressure campaign is having an effect on Israeli and Palestinian politics. As a tragic mistaken identity incident led to the deaths of humanitarian aid workers in an IDF strike and Israel upped the ante on Iran by nailing an IRGC annex in Damascus (Israel has been accusing Iran of smuggling weapons into the West Bank), the sense that Netanyahu and the IDF were losing the plot became palpable. Perhaps that’s why the Israeli government called for a regional security force for Gaza post war.

The result was that anti-Netanyahu protests returned to the streets en masse for the first time since the October 7 Hamas attack and opposition leader Gantz did the Biden admin’s bidding… uh, I mean, uh… acting under his own prerogative, called for new elections.

With the Biden administration continuing its pressure on the Israeli government, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan was in Riyadh to get the ball rolling again on Israel-Saudi Arabia normalization.

It seems that the Biden administration is counterintuitively driving a rift with Israel in order to get back to the pre-October 7 world of negotiating Israeli-Saudi normalization, but this time with the cherry on top of a Palestinian state and a two-state settlement achieved… all while ignoring Hamas.

This week it looks like Biden is intent on getting his way in the Middle East and reaching for the proverbial brass ring.

But, unintended consequences can be a real corker in this neighborhood…

Remember, disrupting the Abraham Accords was certainly part of Hamas strategy, so it’s unlikely that they’ll let the Palestinian Authority reform itself without seeking to tie the PA to the US and undermine its legitimacy. They also can see that America is doing its darndest to ignore them. 

Rising intra-Palestinian violence in the West Bank seems to indicate that Hamas is already deploying its disruptor playbook. After all, as has been noted in this space before, Hamas has the greater popularity on the street, so they’ve got the political capital to do such a thing.