April 25: Trump + 100 days, where do we stand?

In which, we evaluate the mixed result of the Trump administration at the artificial and far-too-early benchmark of 100 days.

Trump + 100 days, where do we stand?

President Donald Trump signs executive orders alongside Secretary of Education Linda McMahon and wounded warriors in the Oval Office, Wednesday, April 23, 2025. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley)

Next Wednesday, April 30, will mark Day 100 for the Trump administration, which is typically the time (thanks to FDR) for pundits and politicians alike to pronounce the new administration a success or failure. Given that in our Constitutional system, Congress is supposed to be the strongest branch and carry the legislative burden AND be deliberative, which necessarily means things are supposed to move slowly, the “100 days” standard is dumb and Constitutionally illiterate. But it’s also a media event, so you’re going to be getting inundated with these “Trump’s first 100 days” type stories, so it’s worth taking the time to at least do a bit of a context check on where things stand.

The economy

The economy, by most markers, is as mixed in its signals as it was in the Biden administration, but along different lines. While inflation remains in manageable territory, tariffs are clearly weighing on consumers, but it’s too soon to tell where price increases will set in. The Trump administration is apparently working on 18 separate trade deals with different countries, and the President appears to have floated an olive branch to China. CEOs are thus sitting on investment dollars and consumers are spending cautiously, not just due to tariff concerns, but also waiting to see where things land with budget reconciliation and whether or not the 2017 tax cuts will be made permanent. Should trade deals start happening, the China trade war cools off, and the tax cuts get through this summer, expect the economy to look more lively this fall/winter. Until then, however, recession concerns remain.

Bitcoin is something of a bright spot, for now, as the value of Bitcoin has markedly increased in contrast to the volatile markets.

Immigration

One big win for the Trump administration here is the number of attempted illegal crossings that fell off a cliff over the last few months as securing the US-Mexico border was quickly prioritized.

Deportations of illegal immigrants have proceeded, but not at the rate the Trump administration would like given numerous court injunctions. While the Trump administration continues its deportation work, it is moving slower as a result of the court battles. Is Trump ignoring the courts on this? That’s the narrative drumbeat of the opposition media, but the reality is more mixed, and may even work in the GOP’s favor come election time IF the Trump administration can manage to be less combative with the courts and push a legislative solution to immigration reform.

DOGE and dereg

Elon Musk is pulling back on his DOGE role (but not exiting) leaving somewhat mixed results. While falling short on a promise to find and cut 2 trillion dollars in federal spending, DOGE has clearly scored significant wins in terms of waste and redundancies, and pulled back the curtain on the abysmal state of federal accounting practices.

At a deeper level, Secretary of Defense Hegseth recently issued a memo that has the potential to really streamline the DOD’s creaky procurement process.

Big Tech

This is a surprise late entry to the work and activity of the Trump administration that has largely flown under the radar. Over the last couple of weeks, the DOJ has carried forward anti-trust lawsuits against Google and Meta. Meta, in particular, appears to be most at risk of being punished for anti-competitive practices. While collaring Big Tech enjoys some measure of bipartisan support, as such it was never a major campaign issue last year. However, it shouldn’t be dismissed lightly if the Trump administration successfully prosecutes these cases. It’ll remake the tech landscape, potentially opening the field to more competition as precisely the moment AI and quantum computing are poised for major breakthroughs.

Foreign policy

Foreign policy is a pretty mixed bag at this point. Ceasefire diplomacy in Ukraine and Gaza are both bogged down, but that’s hardly the fault of the Trump administration (Trump’s overconfident rhetoric notwithstanding) as ceasefire diplomacy in these arenas bedeviled the Biden administration as well. That being said, the flurry of activity on European rearmament can certainly be put in the “win” column as this has been a longstanding American objective.

Iran diplomacy and the better than average odds of some kind of nuclear deal emerged as a surprising opportunity, as was the sustained air campaign against the Houthi rebels in Yemen that appears to be opening up the Red Sea to shipping once more.

The potential of a Taiwan contingency remains, but seems to have taken a decided back seat to trade concerns.

Of major concern to me is the possibility of the Trump administration closing diplomatic posts across Africa even as the security situation on the continent continues to deteriorate. That’s a bad look on a good day, but in a world of great power competition, it seems like a strategic mistake.