April 22: Iran’s proxy war with Israel heats back up

In which, rockets fall on Israel, Russia’s Donbas offensive begins, Sri Lanka teeters on the edge of collapse, and the Solomon Islands make a deal with the dragon.

Iran’s proxy war in Israel heats back up

America’s nuclear negotiations with Iran are hung up on the issue of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Trump administration designated this group as a terrorist organization in 2019, and the Biden administration has thus far maintained that designation. Now, Iran appears to be making a removal of that designation a non-negotiable in further talks with the US. What does this have to do with Israel? Well, considering that the destruction of Israel is a core element of the IRGC’s mission, it has a lot to do with that.

I reported last week that Israeli-Palestinian violence had flared back up, leading to a breaking up of the Israeli governing coalition. That violence escalated with protests and fighting around the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, and Hamas launching a flurry of rockets into Israel that were met with Israeli retaliation. 

Originally, the violence seems to have been sparked by ISIS affiliated individuals, but the escalation by Hamas brings Iran into the picture since the IRGC is supporter, training, and sponsor of Hamas. As the Biden administration mulls over removing the terrorist designation of the IRGC, Iran is clearly demonstrating why the designation was put in place to begin with.

The twists and turns of the Twitter takeover

Elon Musk’s bid to conquer Twitter continued its high stakes drama this week as the Twitter board of directors swallowed the proverbial poison pill, which means they rejected Musk’s original $43 billion offer, moving the contest for control into hostile takeover territory.

Musk’s countermoves this week involved lining up loan commitments from a major bank, which ups the offer to $46.5 billion. The sweetening of the deal lays the groundwork for Musk to circumvent the board and go directly to shareholders with his offer, which, if successful, would complete the hostile takeover of Twitter by Musk. More drama to come.

Russia’s increasing isolation

At the outset of the Ukraine war, I said that one of Russia’s objectives was the restoration of historical Novorossiya. Today, a Russian general said that’s exactly what’s happening. It’s unclear if that general was speaking in an official capacity, but it leaves little doubt that the Russian offensive in Donbas is not some precursor to a negotiated settlement.

As the defenders of Mariupol refuse to give in amidst a tightening ring of Russian forces, the Russian offensive hasn’t exactly gotten off to the best start, though it appears as though the Russians are making some gains. 

The US approved yet another $800 million aid package to Ukraine while tightening sanctions on Russia along with other allies. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell walked out of a G20 meeting when the Russian rep rose to speak, Wimbledon refused to allow Russian and Belarussian athletes to use its facilities, and Germany plans to end Russian oil imports by year's end. It’s a general picture of increasing Russian isolation amidst the worsening conditions on the ground in Ukraine.

While new military gear arriving should give a firepower boost to the Ukrainians, whether or not that will be enough to hold the ground is unclear. What is clear is that it will certainly prolong the fighting.

China’s sliding economy