April 15: Is it genocide?

In which, Biden uses the ‘G’ word, Elon Musk ups the ante on a Twitter takeover, and policymakers face the Covid music… just in time for an uptick in cases.

Is it genocide?

In Ukraine, the battle map looks very different from just a couple weeks ago as both sides dig in for the fight in the Donbas region. As in previous European wars, the Eastern Front once again appears to be the location for decisive action.

Both Russia and Ukraine claimed victories this week - Russia claiming the surrender of a large contingent of forces defending Mariupol, and Ukraine succeeding in sinking the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. Small victories in the wider conflict.

As both sides dig in, America has kicked in another $800 million in aid to Ukraine, this packaged reputed to include helicopters.

On the diplomatic front, President Biden called civilian killings by Russia “genocide,” perhaps just for rhetorical flair, but also a term that has a certain standing in international law that could be used to justify a humanitarian intervention. Russian killings of civilians are wicked and despicable, but does it suggest the kind of targeted national policy the term “genocide” usually entails? That’s harder to say at the moment, but it certainly indicates the latest closure of possible off ramps for Putin. This is quickly becoming an “all or nothing” fight not just for Russia and Ukraine, but for the West as well.

Musk’s Twitter takeover

Last week, Elon Musk had become the biggest stakeholder at Twitter and been offered a seat on the board of directors in what looked to all accounts to be the opening moves of a hostile takeover of the social media platform. How simple things were then.

In the space of the last 72 hours, Musk first turned down the board of directors seat, signaled he’d be buying more Twitter stock, then made an offer to buy the company outright at a huge premium, which effectively put the board of directors in a bind: refuse the offer and violate its fiduciary responsibilities, or take the offer and let Musk take the company private.

Why does this high stakes power move matter? Mostly because Twitter is perhaps the dominant platform for political discourse in the US, and Musk has plans to radically alter its content moderation rules away from what critics have described as censorship. 

Given the very public and transparent way this is unfolding, it’s also a great opportunity for outsiders to see how a hostile takeover happens/works in the business world. It’s one of the most fascinating business stories of our time.

Biden’s brewing storm