I’m back. What’d I miss?

The Weekly Brief - April 3, 2020

I’m back. What’d I miss?

Wow, what a month to take off. When I last wrote this newsletter all the way back in the halcyon days of February there were still 6 Democrats (or so) on the debate stage, coronavirus was something happening in China, but concerns were growing about the spread of the virus and its economic impact. Well….. Why don’t we pick up where we left off?

Coronavirus

How’re we doing (current status)?

What a difference a month makes. Back in February, there were less than 20 American cases of coronavirus and they were safely offshore on quarantined cruise ships. Now, the world is at one million plus cases of this nasty bug, 80% of Americans are under “shelter in place” orders, and with jobless claims piling up as the economy slows to a faint pulse, most Americans are already using the words “recession” and “depression.” The stress is beginning to show, too, as instances of domestic violence are ticking up.

Meanwhile, in China, the epicenter of the bug, Beijing claims that they’re getting back to business as normal (like shipping faulty medical gear to COVID-19 nailed Europe).... Or are they? Like I noted in February, concerns over the accuracy and honesty of Chinese self-reporting on the virus have only climbed; and reports are that China is resorting to forced labor to jumpstart it’s economy while civil unrest is breaking out in Hubei province (origin point of the virus) as some patients who had recovered show signs of relapsing.

Meanwhile, the virus is beginning its dirty work in Latin America and Africa, and both regions are far less prepared for this than others.

The data

For all the daily tallies on the number of cases, recoveries and deaths related to coronavirus, you’d think the data would be a bigger part of the story than it is.

In fact, and this is a feature not a bug of crisis decision-making, accurate data has been very hard to pull together, which makes it even more difficult to create statistical models to forecast the spread of the virus.

The proof is in the pudding, as they say. FiveThirtyEight has been doing a regular check in with medical researchers in the US to create a sample of forecasts, and they’re consistently finding that even among the experts, forecasts are very divergent (and are probably geographically conditioned).

This isn’t to suggest experts don’t know anything or are being deceptive. They’re doing the best they can with what they’ve got. However, when the numbers from China are generally believed to be fake, skewing WHO data (Our World in Data has actually stopped using WHO data because of this), then it’s really hard to know just how dangerous this bug is. Hence, responsible policies ere towards an abundance of caution, which seems to be one of the primary lessons learned so far.

The politics

While Americans are primarily focused on public health and economic issues as a result of coronavirus, the pandemic is also wreaking havoc on political systems and processes, creating obvious challenges, but also being treated as opportunity by some to advance major reform efforts.

In the US, the Democratic convention has been pushed to the end of August in the hopes that large gatherings will be permissible by then. Several state primaries have been postponed as well.

In Ethiopia, and other countries, elections have been delayed or canceled. In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been granted emergency powers.

The upheaval also raises a question of comparison between democratic and authoritarian political systems: Which is more effective at addressing a pandemic? Again, problematic data makes answering this question difficult, but if reports are true about intraparty fighting in China’s Communist Party, then I’d guess the question is largely a moot point. This thing is no respecter of countries.

The geopolitics

Between suspect data, and sending faulty test kits and medical supplies to suffering countries you’d think China would be taking it on the chin in terms of public relations and diplomacy. Not if they can help it.

Between voicing conspiracy theories accusing the US of biowarfare and vigorous economic and medical diplomacy, China is working overtime to win the public perception game and achieve a stronger geopolitical position vis vis the US.

Not everyone, including Chinese residents in Wuhan, is buying the messianic message, though. Brookings believes that US-China relations are about to get rockier in the wake of this crisis, and Italy has been less than thrilled at China’s blame game.

In other regions, the pandemic seems set to reshuffle the geopolitical deck as hard hit Iran recalibrates in the Middle East and African urban centers lose populations. This presents both opportunity and peril for the global powers of China and the US in their contest for global influence and leadership. It’s a contest Joseph Nye neither country is particularly succeeding at.

Why all the denialist face-saving from China? Noah Rothman at Commentary Magazine suggests that it’s because China is facing the real risk of having its global gains reversed.

Silver linings

Despite all the bad news and fears of the unknown, there are several silver linings coming out of this pandemic.

In the US, Gallup finds that Americans are largely complying with shelter in place orders, which lessens the potential of a worst case scenario outcome. Gallup also finds that parents are reporting that children doing school from home are experiencing more happiness and boredom (there’s definitely a link to that). Perhaps this experience provides a key for improving both education and mental health outcomes for our kids.

Additionally, the FDA has approved production of a two minute testing kit, which could at least get us better data on the virus in the US.

Finally, there are remarkable moments of bipartisan cooperation to not only address the crisis via a massive influx of cash into the economy, but also to call out China’s deceptiveness as both left-leaning and right-leaning publications castigated Beijing’s dishonesty. From those examples, as a proud American, I take encouragement that we can work through our differences and unify in the face of threats internal (economic falls) and external (a competing power).

And the world rolls on

While coronavirus absolutely dominates the news cycle, the whole world hasn’t stopped turning.

The devastating civil war in Yemen roared to life with fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia from Houthi rebels, but a possible prisoner exchange suggests that there may be back channel diplomacy going on to find an off ramp to the conflict.

Meanwhile, the next phase in peace negotiations to end the Afghanistan war are bogged down in delays as America tries to transition from making its deal with the Taliban to getting the Afghani government on board.

And as Americans wonder if we should postpone the 2020 election, Lawfare argues that electoral integrity can be maintained in a pandemic, and the Carnegie Endowment argues that it is in fact necessary to carry on with elections.

P.S. On a personal, thank you for your thoughts, prayers, and messages regarding the situation that took me away for a month to begin with. As I noted in February, one of my parents is suffering from cancer, and it's been a long month of treatments and hospital visits. Still a long road ahead, but at least we're walking it.