Topsy turvy Tehran
The Weekly Brief - January 17, 2020
Warren vs. Sanders: She said, he said
With just over two weeks to go to the first primaries, the Democrats are winnowing the wheat and the gloves are coming off. Cory Booker and Marianne Williamson dropped out leaving the field with 12 contenders, but the big story in Democrat land was the move to open warfare between Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Warren accused Sanders of sexism this week, which led to a tense standoff after the latest debate (watch the video, poor Tom Steyer looks so awkward) with finger pointing and accusations of lying. Yikes.
While this latest development will likely shake up the top tier of nominees and leaves many younger progressive voters with paroxysms of doubt and anger, there are some bigger concerns facing the eventual nominee that the Democrats will need to address sooner or later.
As the economy continues to improve, America’s urban areas seem to be doing unusually well, which makes Sanders’ economic populism a harder sell, especially as spending on safety net programs grows apace with the economy. He still has a pathway to victory, but it has a narrow margin of error and relies heavily on swing states that may not feel the need for a drastic economic overhaul as Sanders, Warren, and other progressives are promoting.
Additionally, the Atlantic reports that Democrats might not have a lock on certain blocs of minority groups such as Latinos, where even a moderate increase in support for Trump could prove decisive in swing states.
Finally, there’s a growing foreign policy divide in the party that promises to create some really interesting positions as the Democrat platform takes shape.
Given some of these sizable issues facing the party, the focus of recent debates on issues of personality and appeal are leaving some commentators nervous.
Impeachment: The Senate swears it’ll be impartial. Really.
Shortly after they passed Trump’s signature trade deal with Mexico and Canada, the Senators were sworn in as jurors in the soon to ensue impeachment trial.
Clearly timed with the sending of the impeachment articles from the House to the Senate, the House released new evidence of interactions between Trump advisors and Ukrainian interlocutors, and the Government Accountability Office announced that it believes the Office of Management and Budget violated the law in withholding funds from Ukraine. The new evidence and GAO opinion don’t add a lot to the charges against Trump, but may be a gambit to force Senate Republicans to actually hold the trial and call witnesses rather than merely dismissing the whole thing.
Topsy turvy Tehran
The Iran saga took some twists that I think may have actually been surprising to the regime in Tehran.
Mass protests erupted over the military’s downing of a Ukrainian airliner during last week’s missile barrage on US bases. The protests quickly turned into “down with the ayatollah” type of protests, which got about the type of response one would expect from said ayatollahs. In addition to the protests, Iran’s top female athlete has defected as well, adding another item to Tehran’s ever expanding list of PR problems.
What’s interesting here, is that this happens just days after mass funerals for General Soleimani had many in the US complaining that Trump’s decision to kill Soleimani unified Iran in a way it hadn’t been before. Clearly that narrative is wanting, as are other narratives surrounding Iran.
The other surprise for Tehran came in the form of European powers initiating the JCPOA’s dispute mechanism with Iran over its plans to restart uranium enrichment. Most observers agree that the move puts the last nail in the coffin of the JCPOA, but more significantly is the willingness of the European countries to take the initiative here, which likely signals a willingness to take a harder line with Iran.
Out of al this, Project Syndicate asks an important question: Is Trump’s Iran strategy working?
Rumblings in Africa
Even as America appears to be preparing to scale back its military presence in Western Africa, other countries like Nigeria appear to be moving towards more authoritarian regime types. I share these stories primarily to suggest that the African continent is about the factor more prominently in foreign policy discussions in the US, despite the fact that awareness and knowledge of the African continent is fairly minimal in the US compared to other regions. So, brush up.
Russian (constitutional) roulette
For all the attention Russia has gotten in the American media, Moscow’s announcement of the government resigning and the constitution revising appears to have caught a lot of people by surprise.
Putin’s presidential term runs out in 2024 and he can’t run again for a while, so it seems that groundwork is being laid now to ensure Putin can continue to rule, even if he’s not president.
China trade war deescalates
True to his word, Trump signed the “Phase One” trade deal with China to deescalate the trade war. The American Enterprise Institute reports that the deal leaves much to be desired, especially on the enforcement end of things.
Whatever its shortcomings, the US seems to already be setting the table for further deescalation as the Treasury Department dropped its “currency manipulator” designation of China. Are we throwing in the towel too early? Is Trump looking to get early wins to bolster his reelection bid? Perhaps. It could also be that China’s in more desperate straits than most initially think.
Taiwan’s China clap-back
The January 11 presidential election Taiwan ended with re-election for Tsai Ing-Wen, and communicated a very strong rebuke to China and its play to influence the election in the other direction.
Sultan Qaboos, the leader you never knew (but probably should have)
A significant story that went almost unnoticed in the last week was the death of Oman’s Sultan Qaboos. The long ruling sultan effectively maintained stability in his country and a precarious peace with his fractious neighbors. As such, he was a critical friend, interlocutor, and back channel for the US and other regional powers. His death could make regional diplomacy more difficult, but that all depends on his successor.
News and Trends
Around the world, there are numerous other happenings to be aware of:
Peru has an election coming up. With all the upheaval in the region, Peru has been relatively stable.
In the Palestinian Territories, PA President Abbas may be canceling the very elections he was preparing to hold.
A Moscow-brokered ceasefire is on the table between Libya’s two warring groups.
2020 might be the year North Korea-America nuclear diplomacy gets back on track.
Heart disease-caused deaths are spiking for middle aged Americans across the country.