Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, January 10, 2020
The Weekly Brief - January 10, 2020
The Ayatollahs Strike Back
As I predicted last week, Iran did respond, but did not escalate after the US strike that killed General Solimani. The missile strikes against US bases in Iraq resulted in no casualties, and Iran bracketed the Supreme Leader’s statement that the strike wasn’t enough with statements noting 1) the strike was specific retaliation for Soleimani and 2) troops were intentionally NOT targeted.
President Trump, for all his bluster, seems to have responded with similar two track diplomacy: talking tough on Twitter, but deescalating in a conciliatory (for Trump) statement on Wednesday.
So, what now? Iran certainly seems to be readying more diplomatic measures in the form of formal withdrawal from the JCPOA and resumption of nuclear activities, while the Trump administration readies another battery of sanctions. In other words, we seem to have deescalated to status quo ante.
However, Iran must now deal with international opprobrium from its alleged accidental downing of a Ukranian airliner during its missile barrage, and seismic activity around nuclear plants may put a damper on restarting their nuclear program.
The US must now consider the effect of the strike on its broader strategic calculus, including the impact on allies like Saudi Arabia and India; and the future of US-Iraq relations.
The big story there, has been Baghdad’s request that US troops be removed from Iraq (which the US is disinclined to do), but portions of the Iraqi street are celebrating the death of Soleimani, and some believe this event could create a stronger Iraq.
Whatever the consequences, time (and humility according to Robert Jervis) is needed to get a clearer picture of the effects of this episode.
Libya: Turkey moves into the Maghreb
After the passage of bill green lighting the deployment of troops to Libya, Turkey is now in the fight, supporting the UN-backed national government.
Fundamentally, Turkey is now engaged in its second proxy war (Syria being the other) as Egypt and the UAE are backing rebel General Khalifa Hifter. Cairo is understandably upset with the intrusion of a regional rival in its sphere of influence.
Turkey’s intervention also puts Erdogan on the opposite side of the conflict from Russia, who Erdogan cooperates with in Syria. If that’s making your head spin, welcome to diplomacy in the Middle East. Al-Monitor tries to unravel some of the shifting politics by looking at how the Soleimani strike may benefit Erdogan and Russia. Will Libya prove a drag on such benefits?
Venezuela: Maduro makes a move
Incredible, but this story passed almost completely unnoticed. After the 2018/2019 upheaval in Venezuela, and Juan Guaido’s claim to presidential leadership, an uneasy standoff between the opposition controlled legislature and the Maduro regime. With legislative elections scheduled for this year and international attention (critical to Guaido’s support) pulled elsewhere, the Maduro regime moved to prevent legislators from taking their seats in the National Assembly on January 5.
The question now is, will this reinvigorate a flagging opposition?
China’s Iran dividend?
It wasn’t just smaller powers that may be seeking to take advantage of the momentary flare up with Iran. Minxin Pei makes the argument that China could be looking to take advantage of hostilities as well.
However, that analysis is based on two presumptions: 1) that things escalate with Iran and 2) the Trump administration can’t walk and chew gum at the same time. There’s some evidence that the US is aware of China in this context. A Congressional commission (separation of powers FTW) has concluded that China is likely committing crimes against humanity in its treatment of the Uighur's, and Al-Monitor believes that such a highly publicized investigation and report could be aimed at boxing China out of the Middle East - a key source of energy for Beijing.
Impeachment moves on
With the dust settling (for the moment) with Iran, American attention turns back to the Congress-President tussle over impeachment. This week, the Democrat-led House added a resolution aimed at limiting the President’s war powers to its slate of business, even as the tug of war over the impeachment process continues.
After a Christmas break and the first week of 2020 sitting on the articles of impeachment, Nancy Pelosi sent the articles to the Senate today. However, this only came after voices within her own caucus started voicing frustration with the delay and Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell signed on to a resolution to dismiss the articles out of hand if Pelosi was not forthcoming.
So, now we’re on to the Senate.
Australia fires
Australia has been suffering from record breaking heat during its summer months, and the dry conditions have contributed to the spread of deadly brush fires. Similar to the Amazonian fires that were at the front of the news last year, these fires have become the latest example of the effects of climate change.
While the heat is certainly the effect of climate change, the fires themselves have a mix of causes. In the case of New South Wales, one of the worst hit regions, those causes are largely accidents and arson.
It’s not just the discussion on causes for the fires that have created confusion. The BBC reports that the fires have also generated their own wave of online misinformation.
Updates
Some big time updates on stories that didn’t break into the news cycle due to the Iran craziness.
Britain’s Parliament has passed the Brexit bill. It’s going down at the end of January.
Taiwan’s election is fast approaching and some observers are wondering if this election will see Taiwan move beyond China’s grasp permanently. China may be thinking so too and doing everything it can to prevent that.
First there was no footage of the prison death of Jeffrey Epstein, then there was, and then there isn’t… again.
While Americans are focused on foreign policy challenges in Asia and the Middle East, trouble may be brewing in Central America’s Northern Triangle, which could have a ripple effect on Mexico and the US-Mexico border.
BREAKING: As I was writing this newsletter this morning, news broke that the Democrat list of presidential contenders went down by one: Marianne Williamson is out.