Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, December 27, 2019
The Weekly Brief - December 27, 2019
You’re a real glutton for punishment if you’re reading this email on the third day of Christmas. No french hens to be found here, but I do have a round up of things to look forward to in 2020 (2020!!!). It’s an auspicious year with Olympics, elections, census, and no scheduled Star Wars film (did I say that out loud?).
I’m excited about 2020 and hope you are too. So a Merry Christmas, Happy New Year and here’s a sampling of what I’ll be tracking as we roll out of the crazy 2019 and into the sure to entertain 2020.
The American economy: Boom or bust in 2020?
Rolling into the third year of tax cuts and a continuing economic boom, will there be the long anticipated recession and how will that influence the presidential election (AEI seems to think Democrats are particularly struggling here)? That’s the big economic question. Despite the general bullishness of the economy, Pew reports that many Americans still see the economy as benefiting the rich more than others. Still, Daily Signal argues that the now 2 year old, going on 3, tax cuts of 2017 are still offering some relief and helping drive the boom.
As we roll in 2020, some trends to keep an eye on (and even celebrate):
America is rapidly distancing itself from competition in the oil and natural gas arena.
There are some early signs the national housing market will be slowing, but that will probably be very unevenly felt.
Election 2020
And of course, America will have its presidential election in 2020. I seriously can’t believe we’re here. “They” all said the world would be over with Trump standing on the smoldering ruins, but somehow we managed to get through with just an impeachment.
Of course by “they” I mean Democrats who will first be combing through their 16 candidates in the first half of the year. On the way to selecting a candidate, the part will have to figure out how to win back the white working class voters who flipped for Trump in 2016, even as they continue to adapt to demographic changes that will be making themselves felt in 2020.
One of those demographic changes that will play a roll in the election will be America’s Hispanic population, which will become the country’s largest minority group in 2020. However, significant though that is, new research from Pew indicates that partisanship now appears to be the single biggest indicator of an individual’s voting preference.
So, we can anticipate the 2020 election being pretty polarizing on a full range of issues as Democrats and Republicans paint very different pictures of America and its foreign policy.
Made in Taiwan: Early 2020 election drama
But it won’t just be the American election that gets the world’s attention in 2020. Several other countries will also be choosing their leaders, not the least of which will be Taiwan. You can expect that January 11 election to bring America’s Taiwan policy right to the front burner as we try to further defuse the trade war with China.
Mark you calendars...
2020 has a full diplomatic schedule of major summits that will no doubt be the talk of news cycles when they occur. The Council on Foreign Relations provides us with a list of the “don’t miss” international summits, as well as notable anniversaries that may be worth remembering and reflecting on.
And start your engines!
We tracked a lot of upheaval and change in 2019 (the Council on Foreign Relations provides a nice refresher on some of those changes), and those changes will set the tone for ongoing political and economic trends going into 2020 including decreasing trade flows with China, political turmoil in Latin America, and a continuing cold war in the Middle East.
So, Happy New Year, friends, and strap in.
