Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, December 20, 2019
The Weekly Brief - December 20, 2019
Impeachment and the Senate: Hurry up and wait
It’s been 48 hours since the impeachment vote went down in the Senate, and to absolutely no one’s surprise, House Democrats (sans 4, including one member flipping Republican) voted to impeach President Trump on two charges. These articles of impeachment now move to the Senate for a full trial, which will determine whether or not Trump stays in office….. Or will they?
In what has become just the latest sideshow in this crazy sequence of events, House Speaker Pelosi delayed sending articles to the Senate to ensure that they wouldn’t trigger any trial proceedings until after Congress gets back from its Christmas break.
So, who benefits from this move? Immediately, probably Pelosi, appearing to do what she can to ensure a fair(er) trial (something Senate GOP leaders have been telling us not to expect).
In the long run, however, the move will probably redound to Trump’s benefit. His approval ratings are up and the GOP is hauling in donations for the 2020 election (setting records in November). In other words, for all but the most dedicated Trump haters, the sheen has come off the rose on impeachment, and it seems many voters (including independents) are starting to see the issue in purely partisan terms, which starts to look like so much Democrat badgering of a president trying to get things done. If the election were held today, Trump would be reelected. Barring any significant economic downturn in the next 11 months, he may still be.
As we anticipate a Senate trial, it’s been amazing to see how quickly progressive media platforms have shifted towards undermining the institutional credibility of the Senate. Daily Kos and Vox both ran post-impeachment pieces this week not just attacking the GOP members of the Senate, but the Senate as an undemocratic institution.
NOTE: This doesn’t change my argument some weeks back that if they see the political winds shift accordingly by the time a trial hits, GOP Senators will break ranks to remove Trump from office. However, given the data points emerging on the public response to impeachment, this scenario is becoming less likely. Either way, Democrats are making it very difficult on themselves in the next election, which the Atlantic is already anticipating to be dangerously acrimonious.
Budget for next year includes a Christmas gift for 18 yos
The Senate passed the 2020 budget after the House approved the necessary spending bill in time to avoid a government shutdown. The bill is now on the President’s desk to sign before the Christmas break. Not bad for an apparently hopelessly divided and partisan Congress.
Squirreled away in the bill is also another surprise: The legal age to buy tobacco products got raised from 18 to 21. I’m a little tongue in cheek calling it a Christmas gift, however. I fully anticipate sales of *ahem* alternative to skyrocket.
Afghanistan Papers pushback
Last week, I shared the Washington Post’s searing charge of a campaign of official deception of the American public on Afghanistan. This week, the push back from government, think tanks and academia began. The critiques and concerns range from the factual contestations to the historical to concern over the effect this reporting will have on future policy. The last item on that list should be of particular concern as we anticipate what military conflicts with China could look like.
Is it all just a tempest in a teapot, or a paradigm shifting moment for defense strategy and policy? I think it’s more the former than the latter, but that’s not to say we can’t learn something from it. I wasn’t the only one to pick up on the “WaPo is trying to frame Afghanistan and its attendant politics like Vietnam” angle. To the degree that the project is being seen this way, the Washington Post is out of step with the public on this.
What gave the Pentagon Papers and official handling of Vietnam such outsized influence was the cultural moment in which they occurred (a public losing faith in institutions) in the context of a public deeply opposed to the war. Those conditions don’t hold today. The public already has a low opinion of most institutions (except the military, notably, which this report could influence); and while the public may not be hot on Afghanistan, most of us can all still articulate a very definite reason why we’re there (9/11).
Other news
If you’re wondering why I haven’t been sharing more big stories, that’s indicative of how dominated my dozens of feeds were by impeachment, British elections, and mashup analysis of the two. Still, other notable stories and trends broke through the incessant chatter.
This is still in line with impeachment, but notable in its own right: The retiring editor of Christianity Today made a blistering attack on President Trump, calling on the Senate to remove him from office. It’s a significant moment because the flagship evangelical publication has been largely silent in the Trump years.
Algeria’s long anticipated elections happened…. And that’s about it. The results seem to be disappointing to those who had hoped it would usher in an era of reform.
The Indian government continues to push its highly controversial citizenship law into being amid violent protests that have some India watchers calling this India’s second partition. Carnegie Endowment suggests that Modi is trying to turn a state-nation into a nation-state, which is unlikely to end well.
Turkey is looking to get involved in the Libyan civil war as a power broker of sorts. Yeah, that sounds like a great idea.