Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, December 6, 2019
The Weekly Brief - December 6, 2019
Aaaaand we’re back.
Impeachment, Round 2
Impeachment Round 1 ended this week with Speaker Pelosi asking the House to proceed with drafting articles of impeachment. Wait, you say, wasn’t that what they were doing? No. The hearings getting wall to wall media coverage have all been about whether the House should draft articles of impeachment.
Though most observers considered it a foregone conclusion that articles of impeachment would be drafted, Axios reports that several key testimonies were not forthcoming and one witness went on record saying that the case for impeachment was inadequate.
These stories suggest that gaps remain in the Democrats’ case against Trump, which may explain why the performance of House Democrats over the last weeks hearings was criticized as both an opportunity lost and a risky fixation.
Lawfare explains where we go from here.
The Democrat primary dust begins to settle
It’s been a wild couple of weeks in the Democratic primary race. With two months to go before the Iowa caucus, Michael Bloomberg jumped in and Kamala Harris jumped out. The field now stands at about 16 candidates, but the main groupings seems to be Biden, Warren, and Sanders, and then everybody else. The big question at the moment seems to be if Pete Buttigieg can crack that top tier.
However, it’s still a fluid race. Warren’s vaunted big ideas on public policy seem to be posing a risk of becoming more of a hindrance than a help to her chances, and Buttigieg’s lack of support among black voters could be a major drawback if polls suggesting increasing black support for Trump convert to a similar voter response.
Black Friday, tariffs and the Trump economy
The biggest shopping day of the year was last week and despite the Dow taking a tumble on Trump’s statement that the trade war with China could drag into 2020, and new tariffs being placed on France, Brazil and Argentina, consumers didn’t get the memo they should be bearish.
Not only did the first Christmas shopping weekend of the year indicate bullish consumer spending, but the November jobs report also outstripped expectations.
There seems to be a decidedly split picture on the economy: Employees and consumers seem bullish, while Investors seem bearish. Business owners appear to be caught in the middle.
NATO: 70 going on 17
NATO’s 70th birthday bash was held in London this week, and the venerable military alliance, far from showing its age, showed every sign of adolescence amid reports of backbiting world leaders gossiping about Donald Trump, cool kid Emanuel Macron seeking to grab the spotlight, and class bully Recep Erdogan desperately trying to get attention from a group that would probably prefer him not to come to the party.
The parallels between the NATO summit and high school hallway drama tempt me to stretch the analogy to the breaking point, but that’s not to say that NATO as an institution is without purpose. The individuals leading the member countries may have fraught relations, but NATO still serves a useful purpose in maintaining global security and stability.
Unfortunately, the American people might be having a hard time getting past the high school drama as recent polling indicates that Trump’s NATO skepticism may be more in step with the public than Washington insiders would care to acknowledge.
China’s global PR push
Pew Research conducted a global survey on perceptions of the economic balance of power between China and the US. While America generally edges China as the preferred business partner and stronger economy, China isn’t too far behind in the global public eye as a viable economic partner. The Quincy Institute argues that such standing comes as a result of the American-driven trade war.
However, China’s quest to be seen as a viable alternative to the US is partially what makes the ongoing crisis in Hong Kong such a serious challenge to the legitimacy of Chinese claims. Additionally, as the trade war starts to squeeze the Chinese economy and a fresh round of trade talks kicks off with the US, Beijing seems intent on saving face and not overreacting to American criticism of its Hong Kong policy.
Still, within its own borders, China continues to tighten its surveillance of its own population. Want to buy a cell phone in China? You have to get a facial recognition scan first.
Finish the phrase: Axis of ______?
There’s been a fair amount of speculation as to how far Russian and Chinese cooperation will go in the near future, particularly in the area of military cooperation. In seeming response to such questions, Iran announced that it would be participating in joint wargames with Russia and China.
This is far from a full fledged military alliance, but the tightening economic ties between Russian and China, combined with Iran’s rhetoric on the wargames suggests a developing narrative of “us against the world.”
Iran on the brink?
And if you’re Iran, the visible support of Russia and China couldn’t come a moment too soon as American sources estimated that recent protests in Iran have led to the deaths of over 1,000 protestors.
War on the Rocks argues that these protests and the resulting crackdown by the regime may only be the leading edge of a larger crisis for Iran.
Upcoming elections
This winter promises to see some significant election development around the world.
In yet another twist to the Brexit saga, Brits go to the polls next week in what will essentially be a vote of confidence for Boris Johnson’s Brexit gambit.
Palestinian legislative elections in 2020 are looking ever more likely with Hamas agreeing to join despite it’s ongoing rivalry with Fatah.
The oft delayed Alergerian elections are set to go off next week as well, but a cloud of public skepticism remains as to whether the elections will be free and fair.
News flashes, trends and hot takes
In the world of the interesting and upcoming:
Lawfare reports on some new research that tracks the American volunteers who joined the fight against ISIS over the last few years.
With a democratic transition underway in Sudan, America has upgraded its diplomatic relations with the African country, a major step forward.
Google’s first generation of leaders are stepping down even as the heat turns up on Big Tech. Better to go out on top I guess.
Americas Quarterly takes a look back on the past decade to consider what are some of the most significant events to shape Latin America in the last ten years.
After the breakdown in peace talks a couple of months ago, President Trump announced that talks with the Taliban are back on.
After a Mexican drug cartel killed several members of an American family several weeks back, President Trump announced a determination to designate the cartels as terrorist organizations. While the official move hasn't happened yet (and there's a reason to be skeptical of such a move), the cartel-driven violence on the US-Mexico border is clamoring for a response.