Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, November 15, 2019
The Weekly Brief - November 15, 2019
The Great Realignment?
Several articles caught my eye this week related to America’s polarized public, not just between left and right, but also within the parties.
Commentary offers some analysis on the growing gap between the Democrat Party and its voters, and National Review ponders a future conservatism with a continued Trump (Jr.) presence.
Political ideologies are certainly in flux as demonstrated by the alt-right’s rather loud protest at a Donald Trump Jr. event in California this week. And that state of flux is what leads many to voice concern over the possibility of a civil conflict (the Atlantic dedicated several articles to this question), but Commentary argues that such talk risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy by overstating the problem.
The Claremont Institute suggests that one response to polarized views is to revisit the idea of an American canon of art and literature. Interesting project, which may help cut through the postmodern noise.
Day 1 of impeachment hearings
So, the first day of public hearings on impeachment occurred in the House this week. With the exception of a surprising revelation from Bill Taylor, it went about like you would expect, and the hot takes are about the same: Things went well for the Democrats (if you’re a Democrat or Never-Trumper), or the Dems fell all over themselves and made a mockery of justice (if you’re a Republican).
Axios reports on how the echo chamber effect influenced the partisan reporting, and Politico runs an early piece on what it would take to remove Trump from office (remember folks, said last a few weeks back that Senate Republicans could see their way towards ousting Trump if the right conditions were met).
Hong Kong protests reignite
Lest you forget, this Hong Kong Protest - Extended Edition is still going, and this week things took a very serious turn as police used live ammo and shot a protestor.
The reaction on the street was about what you would expect it to be in such charged conditions, and the simmering protests hit the boiling point almost immediately. As of yesterday, schools across Hong Kong were closed, and Hong Kong police signaled that more such violent tactics could be in the offing by accusing protestors of moving towards terrorism.
The shift in tactics and rhetoric of protesters and police alike has The Strategist wondering what China’s endgame might be here. The situation cannot continue like this, that much is sure, but how does Beijing intend to restore order and save face without this turning into another Tiannamen?
Gaza ceasefire
Some very interesting developments in the on-again-off-again war between Israel and jihadist groups in the Gaza Strip. After Israel killed a senior Islamic Jihad commander via airstrike, Israel reached a cease fire agreement with the group in some interesting triangular diplomacy with Hamas. It’s a small episode, but one that demonstrates how quickly friends and enemies can shift in this corner of the world.
The uniqueness of the politics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict may be partially why the Arab Spring effect seems to have had no real impact on the Palestinian population. That’s not to say the Palestinian people are ambivalent about their future political, but one wonders what the possible shape of Palestinian politics will be should there be elections as indicated in the Brief last week. Providence Magazine wonders if there could be two democracies living alongside one another in the Levant.
Turkey and the bully pulpit
Impeachment hearing weren’t the only circus that came to town this week. Turkey President Recep Erdogan also dropped in at the White House where he seized the bully pulpit to promote anti-Kurdish propaganda. This comes as Erdogan won no favors with European leaders this week by threatening to release captured ISIS fighters back to Europe if the EU didn’t lift sanctions on Turkey. Class act, this guy.
If the field weren’t crowded enough...
Just when it looked like the field of Democrat presidential candidates was starting to thin, the buffet just got bigger. Last week, it was Michael Bloomberg making a surprise semi-entrance and Hillary Clinton neither confirming or denying. This week, former Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick jumped in. And the hatchets were out early for both Patrick and Bloomberg.
On the one hand, both of the late comers seem to be entering at the urging of Clinton and/or Obama party stalwarts concerned about the sprint to the left among current candidates, and there may be rising concerns over Biden’s electability as well. On the other hand, party voters don’t seem to be clamoring for new choices.
That all being said, even if Bloomberg doesn’t stand much of a chance of winning the nomination, the mere possibility of his entrance into the fray seems to have excited investors, perhaps contributing to reduced recession fears. The Democrats might want to take note of that when making their policy pitches.
Bowling for Bolivia
It’s been a wild week in Bolivia where the socialist president Evo Morales resigned amid protests after a reelection vote last month was called into question (Morales has been president for 14 years).
The twist came when the Vice President and Senate President resigned as well, leaving a dangerous power vacuum in the country. A conservative senator has declared herself the interim president, but that merely brought Morales supporters into the streets, heightening the the civil unrest. Morales is now in exile in Mexico where President Obrador offered him asylum.
Iran’s mixed message diplomacy
Remember last week when I shared information on Iran’s announcement that it was getting components of its nuclear program back up and running? Iranian President Rouhani assures us that Iran remains committed to the JCPOA, but Politico looks as last week's events as a precursor to another round of Iranian provocations in the region on a level (and maybe beyond) tanker sabotages. What’s America gonna do? Stop impeachment hearings?
Taliban prisoner swap
After the breakdown of peace talks with the Taliban in the late summer, diplomacy took a slight step forward with an American-Taliban prisoner exchange.
Lest you think this indicates a softening of the Taliban’s negotiating stance, think again. The Long War Journal reports Taliban fighters taking over another district in Afghanistan.
Hot takes and notable stories
This section is becoming something of a regular on the Weekly Brief, so I think I need a catchy heading for this grab-bag section of important, but little-reported stories. Any suggestions?
National Review breaks down new FBI data showing that while violence did indeed increase slightly in 2018, hate crimes are actually down.
There’s a coming revolution to banking as Big Tech companies are about to jump into the game with Google rolling out checking accounts next year. So first they find the perfect ads to show you and now they’ll hold your money while you decide what to buy. No conflict of interest whatsoever.
The CDC reports that superbug (antibiotic-resistant illnesses) are increasing faster than expected.
Social media companies are experimenting with getting rid of “like” buttons in response to the effect of such popularity measures on mental health.
Nigerian police used live ammunition on protestors. What could go wrong?
With the impending public offering of Aramco, one of the most profitable companies in the world, National Review considers the geopolitical ramifications of the unique offering (Aramco is owned by the Saudi Arabian government)
In a drug pricing policy battle, the President and House Speaker Pelosi are advocating for opposing plans that aim to drive drug prices in America to basement levels.
Remember the recent spate of marijuana legalization in the US? Vox reports on a new study that should surprise no one: “A new study suggests that marijuana legalization leads to more cannabis use and perhaps addiction, particularly among adults 26 and older — highlighting a public health downside to a policy change that now 11 states and Washington, DC, have adopted and several others are considering.”