Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, November 8, 2019
The Weekly Brief - November 8, 2019
Beware the neo-Malthusians
There were two stories that I was watching this week that seemed only tangentially connected: The Trump administration made its move to formally withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Accord, and Our World in Data started a new series looking at food production and its links with climate change. So far so good.
But then, Axios reported on a report that showed 11,000 scientists calling climate change an “emergency.” That seems to be in line with the above two data points and fairly benign.
But what happens when you label something an “emergency”? Well, “drastic times calls for drastic measures” thinking kicks in as this same report ostensibly suggests that population control policies should be considered as a means of addressing climate change. China seems to think that works well.
Blue Wave 2.0?
So, the last couple of weeks we’ve been tracking protests in the Middle East and sharing stories speculating on if these protests herald Arab Spring 2.0 (more on that later). That “2.0” thinking made landfall in the US this week as Democrats scored gubernatorial and legislative victories in several states.
Most notable, perhaps, was a success in Virginia, where Democrats took over both chambers of the legislature. Progressive news outlets were predictably bullish the day after the wins, with plaudits ranging from celebratory to ecstatic, and the common ground being shared over what good news this is for the beating Trump in 2020 (the “wave” has not yet “crested” as the Atlantic puts its).
However, conservative National Review points out that state elections are not necessarily about national politics, and so results should be taken with a grain of salt as 2020 indicators (Indeed, the GOP had its own slate of electoral successes this week). Still, some lessons could be drawn for the GOP, and that is the growing awareness of the rapidly bluing suburban vote, and the Democrat focus on effective ground games.
While Team Trump focuses on dominating digital media, Democrats could learn from the list last week that small ball is what’ll win the Electoral College and Senate, something that the GOP probably should be concerned about.
Democrat primary: The rise of the silverbacks
All that being said, it’s hard to not look at state elections as having national implications when 2020 is around the corner. In the Democrat Party race, things were looking pretty stable at the state and national level with Joe Biden leading, and Warren being a strong contender.
All that changed in the last 24 hours with Michale Bloomberg reportedly moving up to an announcement to join the race. This would have a much larger influence on the race than Beto dropping out. For all the talk of the youth vote, it seems the Dems are still a party of septuagenarians.
Despite the state-level victories this week, Democrats have reason to consider Bloomberg as the silver bullet for Trump. For one, it’s still not clear that a partisan impeachment process will help the Democrat’s chances of victory, especially in the swing states. Secondly, considering the top tier candidates are all Senators (sitting and former) who are outspoken supporters of impeachment, this could be a real deal breaker in the swing states, something Bloomberg wouldn’t have to worry about.
Iran walks the regional and global tightrope
It really seems to depend on where you sit whether or not Iran is on the march in the Middle East.
This week, Tehran made dual announcements on uranium enrichment and new centrifuges signaling their intention to fully withdraw from the 2015 JCPOA. It’s a power play aimed squarely at the geopolitical audience, but closer to home Iran continues to struggle with a slipping image in Lebanon and Iraq where protestors seem to be protesting Iran as much as their own governments.
From afar, Der Spiegel sees ongoing protests in Lebanon and Iraq as being a direct challenge to Iran’s influence that will invite a heavy-handed response. That heavy-handed response may be taking shape in Iraq where Iran-backed militias are starting to engage protestors on the streets.
More optimistically, some wonder if the anti-Iran edge these protests are taking on signals a post-sectarian political culture in the region. Watching the coalescing Kurds in the region, my guess is a post-sectarian future is unlikely.
New horizons for technology means new ethical dilemmas
Just how is technology shaping our cities and societies? That’s a question that continues to puzzle academics, policymakers, and the average Joe on the street who may lose his job to a robot.
Axios reports on the increasingly large physical footprint of our “point and click” world, which could be creating problems for urban dwellers, as well as commodifying the average worker should an economic downturn ensue.
Another technology-driven challenge is the paradox of networks. They can be used to harness collaboration and achieve complex tasks, but they’re also being leveraged by increasingly despotic states. How do you get more of the former and less of the latter? Big questions coming in 2020.
India’s up and down week
India was in the news a fair amount this and it wasn’t all great from a publicity standpoint.
Deadly air pollution in New Delhi has led to a declaration of a state of emergency. Seriously, take a look at some of the pictures, it looks bad. The government hopes to leverage new microgrid technology to clean up emissions caused by electricity production, but that initiative will take time.
The India economy took another hit (air pollution is shutting down construction and other industrial activities) this week as the Modi government announced plans to withdraw from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership - a China-brokered trade bloc. The move has drawn mixed reaction both from outside India as well as within. The Council on Foreign Relations suggests that this move shouldn’t have surprised anyone.
Updates
Lots of updates this week on stories previously covered in the Weekly Brief.
In Sudan, halting progress is being made in implementing a new constitution and forming an interim government.
Perhaps hoping to avoid it’s own Arab Spring moment, the Palestinian Authority seems to be moving ahead with plans for elections, which could potentially have ramifications for the peace process and the continued relevance for Hamas in Palestinian politics.
Azerbaijan is experiencing its own political upheaval as the typically stable country is starting to see an increasingly active civil society.
Daily Kos reports that farm bankruptcies are hitting their highest point since 2011, in part, due to the ongoing China trade war.
AEI compiles data on the top 10 inbound and outbound states in the US (New York tops the list of states experiencing a net population loss). One of the cases illustrating this trend the most clearly is the growing conservative exodus from California to Texas.