“We’re sending you back… to the future!”
The Weekly Brief - November 1, 2019
In this edition, we go "back to the future" because it seems like that was most the news cycle this week - trying to look over the horizon or around the corner. A little early for 2020 predictions, but we can start setting the table. Shall we begin?
The future of ISIS
Wow, didn’t see this one coming: The last week saw US forces first kill ISIS head Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, then follow it up with taking out the next in command. Couldn’t imagine who would want that job next, but apparently ISIS has their guy.
So what’s next? No one is convinced that ISIS is defeated, and it’s certainly not the end of Islamist terror, as the Council on Foreign Relations notes that Al Qaeda may have space for comeback now.
Different jihadist groups also voiced defiance in the face of the news, and they’re not exactly wrong to assume that Baghdadi’s death means the end of their movement(s). Carnegie Endowment reports that many of the conditions that facilitated the rise of ISIS are persistent in the region. AEI notes that jihadist groups’ work at providing social services in the midst of corrupt and inefficient governments only adds to their appeal.
Worst case scenario? The regional affiliates of ISIS will start operating more independently.
The future of relations with Turkey
In the wake of the al-Baghdadi raid, alleged Turkish complicity in hiding him, and Ankara’s ongoing campaign of violence against the Kurds, things don’t look good for Turkey-American relations.
Congress pressed ahead with a new sanctions bill as well as passing a resolution formally recognizing the Armenian genocide of the early 20th century.
For its part, Turkey seems to be turning ever closer to Russia as it seeks to purchase new fighter planes from Moscow.
The future of Impeachment
The impeachment pathway is now public as the House voted on an almost strict party-line vote to approve the process this week. The Bulwark provides an overview of what the impeachment process will look like and Lawfare breaks down the details of that process.
The spin on the vote happened pretty quickly. Vox declared that the vote demonstrated Democrat Party unity (despite 2 Dems breaking ranks to vote against the measure), while Republicans seem to be similarly united behind Trump (something the Atlantic declares as something of a win for Trump).
The big question now seems to be centered on how this will influence the presidential election. On this, both parties seem to agree that it’ll be a major issue, but Democratic Senator Christ Coons cautions his party against such an “all in” approach. Impeachment is not polling well among swing state voters.
The future of California
California has been awash in fires this last week as a result of heat, dry air, high winds, poor power infrastructure, and…. Democrats? That seems to be the opinion of some who are criticizing Sacramento’s “take no prisoners” approach to energy policy over the last decade.
Former Governor Jerry Brown fired back at Republican critics of Democrat policies in the state, but such rhetoric does little to obscure the fact that the Democrat Party has largely been in charge of the state for at least a decade, making the state’s ills harder and harder to pin on intransigent GOP opposition (especially when such ire is directed at Washington Republicans).
National Review seeks to pull the many disparate strands of California politics and policy failures into some kind of cohesive narrative, but the result isn’t pretty.
The future of Brexit
On October 31, we were supposed to see Brexit. That didn’t happen, so Boris Johnson sought a snap election for December (see last week’s Brief).
On October 28, Parliament looked set to reject those snap elections, but then…
On October 30, those elections were approved.
So, there will be a snap election on December 12. We’ll see if Brexit happens in 2020. There’s gotta be some kind of ironic joke about hindsight to be made with that.
The future of social media
Apparently, Russian bots aren’t your biggest misinformation problem online: You are.
Facebook has been getting hammered of late for its decision to not censor content in political ads as the election season heats up. Sensing blood in the water, Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey announced this week that Twitter will ban all political ads going forward. Some read this as a bid to undercut Facebook, but Twitter’s comparatively small reach outside the the tech-politics-media bubble makes this seem unlikely.
The future of America
Elections, impeachment, the economy…. Wither America? Will the US lose its great power edge and status in the near future? To read some analysis, this week, you would think so.
Rand reports that America could lose a great power war in the face of China’s allegedly truly grand strategy for dominance.
Closer to home, The Federalist argues that while American focus, energy and strength is diverted to the Middle East, the neighborhood is going to pot.
The future of democracy
In the last couple of editions of this newsletter, I’ve been commenting on the wave of mass protests sweeping the globe, and raising the question of what happens when those protests succeed? The outcomes may indicate the future direction of democracy around the globe.
In the Middle East, protests have forced the Lebanese and Iraqi prime ministers to resign as Project Syndicate notes that this Arab Spring 2.0 is unlikely to generate peaceful power transitions. Perfect timing for potential Palestinian and Algerian elections.
In Latin America, Argentina’s presidential elections took place amidst the backdrop of faltering economies and ongoing protests. The “return of the Peronistas” signal that regional discontent may not be moving the region in a new direction.
In generally stable, India, the inefficiencies of the world’s largest democracy as indicated by New Delhi’s difficulties with tax collection indicate the potential for ruther democratic destabilization.
The future of the economy
So will 2020 be the year of the recession? It will be if you’re big companies who continue to hedge against potential losses, and if you’re looking at the middle and lower class debt load.
However, several other indicators are showing a healthy economy: The S&P 500 closed at a record high this week, the American economy’s last quarter growth outpaced expectations, as did the October jobs report.
The Trump administration is predictably celebrating these data points, but AEI argues that this is not the economy Trump promised, nor is it stronger since he took the presidency.
The air on economic uncertainty seems to be a contributing factor to why growing majorities of younger voters seem to be OK with giving socialist leaders a shot at policy solutions.