Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, October 25, 2019
The Weekly Brief - October 25, 2019
In the American media, it seems that there are only two things going on: Trump’s impeachment proceedings and the debacle in Syria. So guess what I’m leading with this week?
Brexit: There and back again
At the start of the week, it really looked like Boris Johnson was on the threshold of getting a Brexit deal done.
But then Parliament demanded that he ask the EU for an extension on the October 31 deadline, even as it agreed in principle to the deal.
Johnson agreed to the extension, but on the condition of a December snap election, which will essentially function as a public confidence vote in Johnson’s government, and I’m sure will be interpreted as a public mandate on the future of Brexit.
All this British politicking may be for naught, however, as even if Britain passes the Brexit legislation, it will still be up to the EU Parliament to finalize it. This sequence of events all but guarantees that the Brexit ordeal will continue into 2020.
Thou dost protest too much, methinks
Almost exclusively covered only among think tanks and the foreign press, one of the biggest composite stories of the week was the number of popular protests erupting in cities around the world. While Hong Kong protests continue, mass movements also took shape in Lebanon, Chile, Uruguay, Algeria, Spain and across Central Asia.
To say that something seems to be happening would be an understatement. These protests are happening for a variety of reasons and seem to be impacting impoverished and wealthy societies alike. But just what is happening? And perhaps more importantly, what comes after the success of a protest movement? All too often, the outcomes are ill defined, often leading to a cycle of protest.
In the case of Lebanon, at least, Foreign Policy argues that this could be a sign of waning Iranian influence.
Syria success?
With the American pullback from Syria continuing (sort of) and the Russia-brokered ceasefire holding (sort of), President Trump declared victory (?) on the Syria question and lifted sanctions on Ankara. We’ll see if Congress is equally magnanimous.
After a week of furor, it seems the whole Syria thing is blowing over. Why so fast? Something of a consensus is emerging from conservative and liberal publications alike that while Trump’s handling of the situation was misguided and mess it was actually trying to address some real problems with the current policy, and was not without its upsides.
Carnegie also reports that American allies will also quickly forget about this episode as they are eager to get past Syria as well.
The tragedy, though, is that policy affects real people. Lawfare reports from the frontlines in northern Syria, and Axios reports that evidence has already emerged of Turkish war crimes against the Kurds.
The impeachment grind
The impeachment saga saw little in terms of new information, but the drama was supplied by angry Republican reps attempting to “visit” a closed door impeachment inquiry meeting being led by Democrats.
Despite the theatrics, Democrats seem to be having trouble agreeing on just what should go in the impeachment articles, getting to a vote before Thanksgiving, and determining what the effect of this vote would be on Congressional races next year.
House Speaker Pelosi’s office has released a memo outlining the general charges against Trump that are being considered, but that’s not impeachment articles, and those appear to being hard to come by.
About that frontrunner status...
Last week, the story here was about the emergence of Elizabeth Warren as the front runner in the Democrat primaries. Yeah, that didn’t last long.
New poll numbers indicate that Biden retains a comfortable lead on his rivals, even as he continues to bumble his way through campaign appearances.
But it wasn’t Biden or Warren making waves this week, so much as it was Tulsi Gabbard and Pete Buttigieg. Buttigieg came off a strong debate performance last week, to surge in the Iowa polls ensuring his continued presence in the race at least through the first round of primaries. And I’m sure he can count on some timely support from his buddy, Mark Zuckerberg.
For her part, Gabbard was, perhaps unwittingly, given a boost after no less august a personage than Hilary Clinton made a thinly veiled accusation that Gabbard was a Russian agent. What seems like a sideshow, the American Conservative argues is actually the embodiment of some critical fault lines within the Democrat Party that continues to struggle with its ability to engage with large swaths of America (side note: pay attention to GOP Senator Josh Hawley’s parallel attempt to engage “left behind” America).
This disconnect is becoming somewhat more visible, leading some to consider the “grim” possibility of a Trump second term. And no, that’s not just a conservative opinion.
Trends to watch
And while a handful a news stories dominated the airwaves and feeds this week, there are some notable trends to keep track of we roll into the end of the 2019 and anticipate 2020.
The undertow of the Arab Spring continues to destabilize MidEast politics, but Brookings argues that this presents an opportunity for America to pursue a more productive foreign policy in the region.
With the 2020 presidential election a little over a year away, FiveThirtyEight reports that we’ve already seen double the political ads than at this same point in 2016 cycle. Related to that, Axios reports that the Trump advantage in new media continues as Democrats prefer to focus their media efforts on legacy media.
The economy will of course be a big part of the 2020 election, and it seems some major cities are already seeing potential early indicators of recession.
At the global economic level, America’s main competitor, China is posting one of its lowest years of growth since 1992. But that’s GDP numbers from China, which are not always trustworthy. According to AEI, the true distance between the American and Chinese economies is better measured in actual wealth, and America may be increasing its lead there.
A public health paradox has emerged among the young in the United States. Disrn reports on new numbers that show that while young people are having less sex, they’re contracting more STDs.
Trudeau treading water
If you’re a Justin Trudeau fan, you’ll be happy to hear the Canadian prime minister won reelection on Tuesday. However, Truedeau’s Liberal Party lost its absolute majority in Ottawa, which means Trudeau must lead a minority government and govern in coalition with someone else.
Jagmeet Singh might be a likely candidate for a coalition partner, but the leader of the progressive New Democratic Party saw his party post losses as well. He is also a vocal critic of Trudeau making any coalition negotiations likely difficult.
Updates
Israel
After the inconclusive September 27 election results, Benjamin Netanyahu failed again to form a government. Blue and White party leader Benny Gantz will now try to form a coalition. If he fails, Israel may be looking at running its third election in a year.
Hong Kong
The Hong Kong government officially withdrew the extradition bill that triggered months of protests. Protestors are still in the streets, however, which suggests this may be a situation of “too little too late.”