Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, October 18, 2019
The Weekly Brief - October 18, 2019
How do you like your Turkey: Roasted, fried, or smoked?
The diplomatic impasse over Turkey’s interference in Syria got worse before it (seemed to) get better as an American delegation led by Vice President Mike Pence was first rebuffed by Erdogan before he accepted it. A letter from President Trump urging Turkey to stand down was allegedly thrown in the trash, but with America and Russia both scrambling to get a ceasefire nailed down, one seems to have been achieved.
What the turnabout by Turkey? Certainly the dual threat of sanctions or worse sanctions from Trump and the US Congress respectively had an effect as Turkey’s economy continues to struggle. The pivot of Syrian troops to border and Assad’s alliance with Kurdish fighters may also have played a role along with Russia’s concerns. One thing does seem clear, though, and that is that Turkey has lost whatever initiative it had. The question now is, who has the advantage?
Brexit breakthrough… maybe
It seems Boris Johnson has negotiated a Brexit deal with EU leaders. The question now is, can he get it past Parliament? On cue, Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn has already claimed that the new deal is worse than the last one, and minority parties in the government are also skeptical. Is this the breakthrough that will deliver Brexit to British voters? We’ll know more this next week.
China: Deal or no deal?
Have we got a deal? Well, kind of. US and Chinese negotiators agreed in principle to a “Phase One” trade deal, but with no presidential signatures on it, parties are not exactly partying. China followed up the close of this round of negotiations with a request to start the next round before Beijing signs anything.
Obviously, the non-conclusion of this round of talks has done little to alleviate investor concerns on the stability of the world economy, especially considering that Phase 2 may be a much more difficult discussion.
Elections and protests
Popular unrest and parliamentary elections seem to making the world go ‘round this week, so here’s a barnstorming tour of what’s upcoming (and what has upcomed).
Canada
Canada’s general election is Monday, and Prime Minister Trudeau’s no good, terrible, very bad month has continued with Conservatives taking a slim lead in polls this week. The change prompted Trudeau to pull out the big guns, as former president Barack Obama visited our northern neighbor to endorse Trudeau. We’ll see how well that goes down with Canadian voters.
If you’d like a breakdown on Canadian elections, the Wilson Center has a helpful infographic.
Tunisia
The presidential election in Tunisia has a winner, Kais Saeid, a political newcomer who promises to write a different chapter in Tunisian political history. A coalition government still has yet to be formed in the legislature, but the Carnegie Endowment is bullish on Tunisian democracy’s prospects.
Europe
Parliamentary elections in Hungary and Poland perhaps signal a return to “normalcy” as right wing populists failed to make gains in countries that were largely seen as irretrievable heading towards full democratic regression.
Ecuador
Popular protests in Ecuador have led to something of a political ceasefire between protestors and the government, but long standing economic and social inequities seem to be unresolved.
Haiti
Unbeknownst to me and just about everybody else it seems, protests against government corruption are rocking Haiti.
Getting the Bern band back together?
When last we heard, Bernie Sanders was out of commission for a while due to heart surgery to address some blocked arteries and a heart attack. Bernie was back on the debate stage this last week, and his campaign got a (potential) shot in the arm with some key Congressional endorsements from the Squad… well, three members of the squad… no, I mean, two.
Having made their mark as the fresh new faces of the Progressive caucus, the quartet of Congresswomen Tlaib, Omar, Ocasio-Cortez and Pressley were rumored to be throwing their start power behind Sanders, but then Pressley demurred and Tlaib followed suit. Not that it matters much since Reps. Omar and Ocasio-Cortez seem to consistently get more media attention, and AOC by far the most. Not to read too much into this, but it seems pretty clear that one or both of these young guns are aiming for cabinet seats, or more (VP?).
However, FiveThirtyEight notes that this is not necessarily a coalition building endorsement, The Squad and Sanders are pretty ideologically aligned. So, this may just be a flash in the pan and not the needed shot in the arm that Sanders campaign may need to keep up with Warren.
Warren "wruns" ahead
And why does Sanders need to keep pace with Warren? Because this party ain’t big enough for the both of them. Warren’s sprint to the left on policy issues during the primary season, coupled with her populist pathos and strong debate performances has made her the generally acknowledged frontrunner, but that hasn’t come at the expense of the more establishment Joe Biden.
That she is now the nominal frontrunner seems to be pretty clear, especially given Warren’s rising profile in conservative media. Being the frontrunner is not all fun and games, however, as Warren quickly found out this last week as critical broadsides were fired at her from the right and the left.
The consensus seems to be that Warren’s biggest weakness is her steadfast refusal to take a steadfast stand on just about anything, which leads The Federalist to question whether she’ll be able to stand up to Trump’s bullying tactics in a general election.
A story worth knowing
Nobel Prizes have been awarded over the last couple of weeks, but there was a rather unique one that hasn’t gotten a tremendous amount of attention and it should. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was awarded the Peace Prize for his work in ending emergency rule and conflicts with Eritrea, signaling a seismic shift in Ethiopian politics for the better.