Who’s playing 3D chess now?
The Weekly Brief - October 11, 2019
Turkey invades Syria
Right on schedule with American withdrawals from the Turkey-Syria border area, Turkish forces invaded Kurdish held areas of Northern Syria amidst threats of sanctions from the US should Turkey go beyond its stated aim of establishing a buffer zone. In an ironic twist, Iran also called on Turkey to take it easy.
Despite the threats, Turkey dismissed the warnings and rolled into northern Syria, scattering thousands of civilians as it went.
Observers are bracing for fresh flows of refugees and many security officials are very concerned about a resurgent ISIS, which may already be showing signs of activating sleeper cells.
President Erdogan’s response to much of the criticism (especially that emanating from Europe) was to threaten the continent with fresh waves of refugees.
Bipartisan cooperation
The behavior of strongman regimes in Turkey and China over the last week have generated a surprisingly welcome amount of bipartisan cooperation in Congress over the last week even as the American public increasingly views American politics in highly polarized terms..
When NBA officials bowed to Chinese pressure to take back words of support for Hong Kong protesters and offer an apology, lawmakers as different as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ted Cruz came together to roundly condemn the NBA’s pursuit of money over freedom. Hopefully such condemnation extends to American companies that have similarly folded to Chinese demands to assist Beijing in its totalitarian measures.
And, as Turkey’s anti-Kurdish invasion of northern Syria unfolds, Republican lawmakers in Congress went into revolt against President Trump. Spearheaded by Lyndsey Graham, Senators started working on a bill to lay sanctions on Turkey for its invasion. Should a bill be passed, it’s like to be vetoed by the President. However, if the depth of Republican pushback is as deep as the initial blowback indicates, it could lead to President Trump getting his veto overturned by Congress.
Who’s playing 3D chess now?
Commentary lays out two significant developments in the Ukraine phone call story that could put a real damper on impeachment efforts: the Ukrainian president apparently had no knowledge of held up military aid, and the whistleblower was apparently leaking information to House Dems prior to whistleblowing.
Such revelations are unlikely to slow down the impeachment train, and that may be what Trump is betting on as the White House pugilistically announced that it would refuse to cooperate with the House impeachment inquiry. The bet might not be as crazy as it looks as the National Review lays out several instances where what seemed like presidency-ending scandals ended with mere whimpers.
The real question is, can Trump stay ahead of the inquiry and the revolt in his own party long enough to reverse public opinion that seems to be turning against his continuation in office? To think that impeachment alone will lead to a 2020 win for Democrats is still not clear as Vox lists no less than nine different outcomes of an impeachment, and they don’t all bounce Democrats way.
The fallout of Trump’s recent move in Syria may have a significant influence on how far impeachment goes, so here’s my hot take (it’s crazy and unlikely, but it’s 2019):
If Turkey keeps its word, contents itself with setting up a buffer zone and doesn’t engage in Kurdish ethnic cleansing, the GOP Senators may cool off and recognize the move as a regrettable necessity. IF NOT, however, the betrayal of the Kurds may be a bridge too far and Trump will be faced with impeachment articles in the House that go to an unfriendly Senate for trial. By the time it gets there, we’ll be in election season. Mitch McConell can drag the trial out until after the Democrats nominate the person most likely to beat Trump - Elizabeth Warren, and then pull the trigger, remove Trump from office, and the increasingly left-sprinting Warren will be facing off against the far more reserved and (comparatively) moderate Mike Pence. The GOP will win the presidency and the House as independents will shy away from Warren with Pence as an option, and Trump voters will punish Democrats down ballot for impeaching him. The 2020 results will be the same as 2016: GOP controlled Congress and White House, and it will be the Democrats own doing.
Back to Brexit
In case you’re wondering, Brexit of one form or another is supposed to take effect at the end of October. But just what form will that be? As European leaders continue to brush off compromise packages from the UK, European citizens and businesses are left to plan for multiple contingencies.
In the UK, concerns remain that a hard Brexit will destabilize Ireland, and possibly renew conflict in Northern Ireland.
India-China summit
A scheduled informal meeting between the leaders of China and India is expected to act as a salve on the oft tense relations between the two countries. Chinese diplomats were at pains this week to downplay tensions between the two countries, but the Carnegie Endowment notes that there’s still a lot of work to be done before China and India can safely say theirs is a friendly rivalry.
Canada’s conservative comeback?
Not often that I’ll report on a story with just one link, but after Justin Trudeau’s blackface controversy and ethics rulings going against him, the scandal-tagged PM may be up against the ropes going into a general election this month. But who would be the PM should Canada’s conservatives take back the government? Politico does a profile piece on Adrew Scheer.
The shifting winds of climate change
In the immediate wake of the UN’s recent climate summit that saw the dramatic global debut of Greta Thunberg, climate change headlines seemed to dramatically underscore the urgency of Thunberg’s message.
While climate change may be a politically divisive topic in American politics that seems to be changing according to AEI and Project Syndicate suggests that we may have reached a breakthrough moment for government action on climate change. You might say 2019 is a…. wait for it…. watershed year.
One of the indicators of such a shift towards a more active climate change policy, at least in the Western world, is the emergence of increasingly radical activism, leaving some to wonder if political leaders have grabbed a tiger by the tail.
Whither the Knesset?
When last we checked, Israeli elections had left the country with something of a hung parliament. As the new members took their seats last week, little seems to have changed as Netanyahu’s opponents seem intent on pushing him out.
Still, a very small, almost unnoticeable step of progress was made in Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy as Israel released tax funds earmarked for the Palestinian Authority. The money had been the source of much wrangling of late, but apparently internal politics has exhausted both sides to the point of being willing to compromise.