Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, October 4, 2019
The Weekly Brief - October 4, 2019
Impeachment
The sense of deja vu is strong as the impeachment process gets under way for President Trump. While the Ukraine-call scandal is very different from a Watergate or Lewinsky affair, the media circus and hyperbole surrounding the impeachment process is all too familiar including the many sideshows involving media ethics on protecting or exposing the whistleblower. The main plot is going to spin out over the course of the next year, so I would suggest keeping track of some of these sideshows because they could be indicative of the collateral damage and fallout that this whole mess will create, not the least being the effect on our political process.
That being said, there were some notable twists in the story this week as the President seems to have unveiled something of a counterattack by… doubling down on the very thing that’s getting you investigated?
In a truly bizarre, though not entirely out of character, turn the President decided to publicly call for a foreign power (China!) to investigate Joe Biden. Crazy, right? Not if you’re a businessman for whom money talks. The absolutely jaw dropping fundraising numbers posted by Trump and the RNC suggest that Trump is making a strong play to his base with his “damn the torpedoes” approach.
While it seems as though Trump is going down in flames and taking the Republican Party with him, there are some cautionary voices among progressives. We’ve seen this script a couple times already, after all: Trump nailed by a seemingly presidency-ending scandal only to emerge with his poll numbers intact, even if low, (though that could be changing) and the Dems still unable to turn any Trump troubles into meaningful strategic gains. Politico suggests the Dems shouldn’t get too greedy here.
Bernie’s heart
And while the impeachment process may be something of a not altogether surprising “October surprise” ahead of the 2020 election, the real October surprise this week was a shakeup in the Democratic primaries with the suspension of Bernie Sanders’ campaign as the Senator underwent heart surgery to address blocked arteries.
The Senator has not dropped out of the race yet, but it's hard to contemplate him continuing to campaign, even if this was a fairly benign process. Biden, despite taking a beating, is staying in the leading pack and Warren seems to be surging. In the second tier, Andrew Yang is posting some strong fundraising numbers as well. It’s hard to imagine a campaign suspension of any length being good for Bernie’s chances.
So, here’s a real brain twister: If Warren wins the nomination as the candidate best suited to challenge Trump, then what happens if Trump is impeached and removed from office by the Senate? Are the Dems ready for a President Pence?
China’s revolution at 70
It almost passed with barely a notice, until the President decided to wish Xi Jinping and China’s ruling Communist Party a happy 70th birthday.
Yes, communist China celebrates 70 years of revolution this week with festivities of a traditional variety: Massing troops to threaten a violent crackdown on a democratic protest movement. Ongoing protests in Hong Kong are a noticeable cloud in the otherwise sunny prospects of China’s future, and the big question is whether or not Hong Kong is a harbinger of things to come. 70 is, after all, a fairly auspicious year if you’re a communist country: The USSR only made it yea far, can China keep going? There’s plenty of reasons beyond Hong Kong to argue that the regime is in a tough spot, but it’s been in many tough spots and come out seemingly stronger. That’s not to say challenges are present, the real question is if those challenges are of the existential kind? I guess that’s what keeps academics and analysts employed.
Wibbly-wobbly markets
Speaking of employment, the economy, domestic and global, presents another range of mixed signals for recession watchers this week. In terms of jobs, more were added in September than forecasted, which is good news for many.
However, recently published data suggests that Trump’s tweeting exercises a statistically significant negative effect on markets, but my guess is large retail chains going bankrupt and bad IPOs are also significant contributing factors.
Beyond our own borders, there’s data to suggest that the eurozone is already headed into a recession, if not there already. Project Syndicate offers some thoughts on how to offset and/or avoid a serious recession in a region that still hasn’t fully recovered from 2008.
The market pessimism has left many wondering if we just need a recession to cool everything down and recalibrate it, but J. Bradford Delong argues that this “needed recession myth” is unhelpful and unnecessary.
The good news
Crazy week, but there was a lot of good news buried amidst all the impeachment hand wringing.
Brookings reports that household income for black families is rising across the United States in step with the historically low levels of black unemployment.
The New York Times reports on a truly wonderful project undertaken by political scientists and the University of Chicago to bring a representative group of American voters together to talk politics. What could go right? The effect of getting out of echo chambers and engaging with people as people can help moderate polarizing opinions.
After the focus on climate change and an assumed impending crisis, 500 climate scientists wrote a letter to the UN arguing that there is no “crisis” even with climate changes.
The state of California passed a law allowing college athletes to make money off their names, essentially giving them permission to be athlete-entrepreneurs.
New research from Pew suggests that American’s, though having little trust for Congress, have quite a bit of trust for local and state officials, and several federal agencies. Federalism seems to not only be healthy, but keeping American democracy and civil society going strong.
Future trends
With a full week, it may be hard to keep an eye on the future, but there are some notable trends to be familiar with:
Project Syndicate reports on the emerging Asian century that will soon form the global economic center of gravity.
The New Humanitarian critiques the alarmism surrounding the topic of refugees and points out how some countries like Bangladesh are taking some very proactive steps to offset the negative effects of climate change.
Australia, Japan, the US and India seem to be coalescing as the anti-China block in the Indo-Pacific region, but India’s censorship policies make it something of an odd duck in the apparently “pro-democracy” group.
Der Spiegel and The Nation both offer profiles on countries with socialist governments that seem to be success stories. Will socialism make a comeback?
Arab Spring 2.0? There are some pretty heavy protests in Egypt.