Did someone put Bibi in a corner? - The Weekly Brief, September 20, 2019

The Weekly Brief - September 20, 2019

NOTE: this is an extra special brief because there will not be a brief next week. I will be moving and Internet connections will be down. There will be an email, but it will contain content not directly pulled from the week’s news cycle.

Saudia Arabia vs. Iran

Where to even begin with developments on Iran this week?

Let’s begin with a drone strike on a Saudi Arabian oil facility that took 5-6% of the world’s oil supply offline in a matter of minutes, sending a tremor through global markets.

That’s significant enough, but the markets rebounded quickly and all seemed fine until Saudi Arabia suggested that Iran was behind the attack, and American quickly took up the story.

Iran of course quickly and aggressively denied its involvement in the attack (the attack originated from Houthi rebels in Yemen), but used renewed American hostility to put the kibosh on any possibility of negotiations with Trump in the near future.

That’s not even the biggest twist. That twist came in the last couple of days of possible US military action against Iran, renewing concerns that Trump will lead America into an ill advised war with Iran, only this time it will be at the behest of Saudi Arabia.

The National Review argues that this crisis is one Iran has been waiting for as it has built up its precision weapons arsenal and explored ways to deploy it. In this reading of the attack, this moment emerges as an important test case in American resolve for regional security, support of allies, and the level of tolerated Iranian aggression.

In the midst of the growing furor demanding a response of some kind, the Strategist cautions against rash action.

Someone put Bibi in a corner?

Israeli elections were held Tuesday, and an expected tight election turned something of a surprise as the new Blue and White party found itself deadlocked with Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud party in a virtual tie.

Israel’s government now enters uncertain territory as it’s not really clear who will be prime minister. It is unlikely to be Benjamin Netanyahu since Likud is not the largest seat holder in the Knesset, but the Blue and White coalition doesn’t have a majority either.

However, Bibi can still play the role of kingmaker as he works to solidify his leadership of Likud in order to position it as a critical coalition partner for whoever does emerge as the next PM.

So, even though Bibi is down, he’s not out and regardless of where he lands, his influence will continue to reverberate in Israeli politics.

North Africa elections

Israel wasn’t the only MENA country to hold elections this week. Tunisia chalked up a win for democracy as a generally free and fair election saw two political outsiders emerge from a field of 26 to face off in a second round run-off. One note of concern, though, was that turnout for the initial round of voting was on the low side.

Meanwhile, Tunisia’s neighbor Algeria finally scheduled its oft-delayed presidential elections for this coming December.

Climate and the return of population fears

Today marks the second of what I’m sure will become an annual Global Climate Strike ahead of the UN's climate summit.

The strike, an international, largely student-driven effort seems to have found its figurehead in teenage Swedish activist Greta Thunberg. If you haven’t heard about this girl, you should familiarize yourself with her work. She will probably be in the running for a Nobel Prize in the near future.

As the climate change activism and striking has gathered momentum and attention, I’ve begun to notice a different line of thought emerge on climate change policy: population control. Advocates argue that international attention on population growth has waned as demographers forecast that the global population is already declining.

Our World in Data notes that while the global population is stabilizing/declining, land use to sustain that population is still a concern and densely populated countries will face challenges in the near future.

New National Security Advisor

For those keeping score, we’ve got a new National Security Advisor (that’s Trump’s fourth) in Robert O’Brien, America’s lead hostage negotiator.

Daniel Larison at the America Conservative is unconvinced, however, that this is an improvement over John Bolton.

Fun fact: You now have a better chance of staying married to Donald Trump than staying his National Security Advisor.

Facebook fighting a rearguard action

Even as the public turn against Big Tech gathers steam, Facebook is doing what it can to remain top (unbroken) dog in the social media world. Mark Zuckerberg announced a content oversight board this last week ahead of a PR trip to DC. Lawfare breaks down the potential impact of this new decision-making body.

The question that jumped to my mind was, “Is this too little too late?” Axios reports that misinformation online is as bad as ever and specifically cites Facebook-owned Instagram as being a main source for misinformation in the coming elections.

Michael Brendan Dougherty at the National Review suggests that it may be time, past time, for us to exit the digital community space to engage one another face to face. I’d second that.

Healthcare in America

Many polls have indicated that the cost of healthcare is a leading concern for American voters ahead of the 2020 elections, which may explain why “Medicare for all” seems to becoming a rallying cry for Democratic candidates.

The concern over healthcare costs comes as Axios reports that healthcare industries reported a huge increase in profits in the last year even as exploding costs continue to be a huge driver of American poverty.

Still, there’s been some progress in offsetting rising costs if you look behind the top level numbers, and it comes from an unlikely source: The Trump administration.

One final healthcare bit of good news: US abortions are at their lowest level since 1973.

Show me the money!!!

Mixed signals continue on the health of the American economy as fears of recession and prolonged trade wars sap the certainty of CEOs.

That general pessimism got a boost(?) from the Fed as it announced a second interest rate cut in as many months, then followed that up with floating the possibility of bond buybacks (putting more cash into the economy) to cover liquidity shortfalls for financial institutions.

With such concerns floating over financial stability, to say nothing of high cost public policy proposals from presidential candidates, where’s all the money coming from? Project Syndicate interviews a leading proponent of Modern Monetary Theory on why governments can, and should, just print more money.

Democracy on life support?

Public and economic health may be the main concerns of may Americans, but political health is also gaining traction as we enter the presidential election cycle. Is America’s constitutional system doing OK?

This last week, we had Constitution Day, and the Daily Signal took the opportunity to promote constitutional literacy as a pathway to promoting general political health.

However, Pew reports that leading political institutions like Congress still suffer from low levels of public trust. The good news, though, is that more local public officials continue to retain a fairly high levels of public trust. That silver lining may not be enough to save democracy in America, though, according to leading political scientist Shawn Rosenberg.