The Front Runner Cometh? - The Weekly Brief, September 13, 2019

The Weekly Brief - September 13, 2019

Never forget

I realized while preparing for this week’s newsletter that at 18 years, I’ve now lived more of my life in a post 9/11 world than in a pre 9/11 world. All of my adult life has lived out in a social, cultural and political context colored by the events of that day. To say that September 11, 2001 has not left its mark would be an understatement.

The Intelligence Matters podcast interviews author Garrett Graff on his oral history of 9/11. It’s a “must listen,” especially for the excerpts the author reads.

And what of Al Qaeda? What has become of the terrorist organization responsible for those traumatic events? Brookings provides us with a brief overview of the dwindling capacity of the organization, now being sapped not only by counter terrorism efforts, but also by its fights with other terrorist organizations.

The frontrunner cometh?

It’s still months before the first Democratic Party primary, but a certain narrative of a top tier of contenders is starting to form. Axios reports on the trio of Warren, Biden, and Sanders separating from the pack of younger challengers. And as Biden suffers from question of fitness for office on the back of poor debate performances, Sanders appears to be surging while some polls are placing Warren - the candidate with a plan for every problem - as the front runner.

The accepted narrative among progressives is that 2020 will be a victory over Trump, but we heard that tune in 2016… bottom line, it’s still too early to call a winner for the Dems, much less 2020.

The North Carolina Ninth

A note of caution on early optimism regarding future election prospects came from North Carolina this week. North Carolina’s ninth congressional district was ordered to rerun its election after a high profile case of election tampering left the traditional GOP seat vulnerable.

Progressive media like The Nation celebrated the “win for democracy,” (and it is), but went silent when the Republican candidate won, albeit narrowly. On a personal note, I spoke with a self-identified liberal political scientist earlier in the week who expressed confidence that Democrats would carry this election based on early polling results (something Democrats tend to traditionally do better in).

Pundits were quick to attempt to draw lessons from this election for the presidential elections, but that is notoriously difficult given the unique dynamics present in Congressional elections, and special elections at that.

Still, The Bulwark argues that Republicans need to do better on reaching out to minority voters, and Vox points to the ongoing challenges the GOP is having in the suburbs, both of which are issues applicable in any electoral setting.

It’s the economy, stupid?

Another electoral narrative that will be closely watched and tested over the next year will be the effect of the economy on Trump’s reelection chances. And, there’s been a lot of mixed signals on that front as well. AEI offers some detailed insight on the recession signals coming from the bond market, and Axios notes that the trade war with China is now impacting just about every sector of the economy. At the more local level, AEI provides an excellent tool for looking at another key market indicator, the housing market.

Though there are certainly some macro economic indicators that suggest at least caution vis a vis recession, on the labor and poverty fronts, the news is more positive. According to Axios, there’s now more job openings than workers, and AEI reports on new Census Bureau figures that show that poverty is down and the middle class is moving up.

At least for the near future, the economy looks like it’ll continue it’s healthy growth trend, but the Congressional Budget Office also notes that such growth is forecasted to drop below average in the next couple of years. That may be due to a recession, or the effect of a labor shortage, but the political impacts are harder to forecast.

Trade war thaw

And though the trade war is being felt across the US economy, a temporary (for now) thaw seems to be occurring as China suspended some of its tariffs on US goods ahead of the scheduled resumption of trade talks with the US.

That may be good for the economy, but it doesn’t negate the serious competition China is engaged in with the US for global influence, and the deep intertwining of Chinese military, intelligence and business interests will continue to be a huge obstacle in the coming negotiations.

The tiger and the dragon

China may be feeling bullish in its ability to stand up to US economic pressure, but Beijing must now be looking to it’s southwestern front as India is starting to make moves that look a lot like old school containment.

Earlier this week, China made a not-so-vague statement about its claims to a disputed border area with India that almost sparked a clash last year between the two countries. At first, I was wondering why China would be trying to pick a fight at this moment with India. However, it makes a fair amount of sense as India is making some pretty strong diplomatic overtures to Japan, and (more ominously for China) to Delhi’s longtime partner Russia.

Bolton bids bye-bye

On the one hand, it’s hardly a surprise anymore when a cabinet official leaves the Trump administration. But when that cabinet official is John Bolton, that’s a news maker. The veteran Washington insider left the Trump team after a short, but tension filled tenure as National Security. In a very rare moment of not only bipartisan, but international agreement, there seems to be a collective sigh of relief.

While there’s no shortage of hot takes on why Bolton left, who will be next, or how this will impact US foreign policy going forward, I’m intrigued by the idea that the departures of Mattis and Bolton could be signalling the waning influence of a certain hawkishness in US foreign policy. That may seem surprising to some, but the immediate openness to talks with Iran without preconditions, even in the face of Iran’s newest moves on its nuclear infrastructure, suggest such a turn.

Israeli elections

September 17 is the Israeli election rerun after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s initial election victory earlier this year.

Most analyses suggest it’ll be close as Netanyahu seems to have struggled to build a coalition. As the difficulties mount, Bibi has fallen back on a familiar pre-election tactic of demonstrating he can negotiate with adversaries, be tough with Iran, and commit to Israel’s territorial integrity.

Such moves don’t bode well for the peace process, but may be enough to carry him across the line into another parliamentary majority. We’ll find out on Tuesday.