Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, September 6, 2019
The Weekly Brief - September 6, 2019
Boris, we hardly knew ye
The Brexit drams entered an intense week that started with Prime Minister Boris Johnson threatening to expel members of his own party if they didn’t back his plans for getting a Brexit plan through. That was apparently a bridge too far as the Prime Ministers suffered a rapid series of setbacks as the week unfolded.
The defection of one party member to the other side of the aisle, the resignation and expulsion of others, and the passage of a bill blocking a no-deal Brexit policy left Johnson bereft of a parliamentary majority and likely unable to call snap elections to get that majority back. This all before Parliament is about to go into it’s five-week break/suspension and Johnson about to go to Brussels for negotiations with the EU.
To say that the Prime Minister lost what little leverage he had would be a massive understatement. Just what’s next for Brexit is, as it has been for the last several months, up in the air, but the PM’s days may be prematurely numbered.
Bernie and Biden, did we ever know ye?
But, it wasn’t just British politics that got wild. American politics had some pretty incredible moments as well. On the Democratic side, CNN hosted an epically long town hall discussion with presidential hopefuls on climate change in which big policy plans were matched by even bigger statements on the part of the candidates.
What seemed to shock many were comments made by Bernie Sanders suggesting that developing countries use abortion as a means of population control and planetary preservation (note to Sanders: China has long followed such a policy with no measure of improvement to its environment). The extreme statement, along with odd moments with Joe Biden, leaves some wondering if Elizabeth Warren is about to move into front-runner status.
More broadly, Politico suggests that such a large focus on climate change could be a deal breaker for American voters and the Democratic Party come election time, effectively becoming a wedge issue for a party that already appears to be once again trying to pick winners regardless of voter preference.
GOP, are ye daft?
Despite the bullish predictions by some conservative commentators that Trump is marching to a second term, some polls are suggesting that the top three front runners (Biden, Warren, and Sanders) all have a strong chance at beating Trump in 2020.
Additionally, with a large number of GOP lawmakers set to retire in the next year, in may not be just the White House in play.
Despite the three-ring circus of the Democratic primaries, concluding that Trump is well on his way to a second term may be premature.
Recession, where are ye?
With all the talk in the air about a possible 2020 recession, businesses appear to be cleaning the shop, getting finances and customer loyalty on a sound footing. Axios suggests this could be what’s driving a spate a socially conscientious moves by several companies.
Politically, a 2020 recession is largely assumed to be the one major obstacle to Trump’s reelection, something left-leaning media seem to enjoy the prospect of, but Axios again suggests an alternative reason: major media institutions can’t suffer much more lost credibility and missing a recession could destroy what little credibility may remain.
Good on ye, Hong Kong
After 13 weeks of protests and a continued refusal to back down, the protestors of Hong Kong got a big win this last week: Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam announced the full withdrawal of the extradition bill that sparked protests in the first place.
But are the protestors going to go home? Not necessarily. The extradition bill, while being the initial spark, fanned the flames of a broader discontent that still sees China as a threat and Lam’s government as unresponsive. The protest movement, and Hong Kong at large, now enters a tenuous new phase: What next?
Are ye alright, America?
Another mass shooting occurred in Texas this last week prompted a resumption of calls for gun law reform, but that debate and (shockingly) the story itself fell off the news cycle comparatively quickly. It seems that the gun debate has become so polarized and toxic people are concluding it’s a debate not worth having. Such a response leaves many with a sense that the United States is coming increasingly unmoored, and (as some data would suggest) increasingly divided..
However, there are some indicators that as a country, America is doing better than many seem to realize. The American Enterprise Institute reports that food security in America is continuing to improve, returning to pre-Great Recession levels; a huge indicator of economic recovery and well-being.
Another AEI report suggests that as students return to college campuses, American universities, and the students they serve, largely to continue to promote viewpoint diversity and engagement with those viewpoints.
While the above reports don’t lessen the tragedy in Texas, they do challenge the increasingly bipartisan myth that America is a society in irreversible decline.
Ye olde updates
Several stories we’ve been following over the last couple of months and years had some interesting updates this last week:
Early October is set to see a planned resumption in US-China trade talks aimed at ending the ongoing trade war between the two countries.
Elections are upcoming in Tunisia for both the presidency this month and parliament next month. This will be a critical test for the country’s democratic institutions in a region that’s been increasingly unstable of late.
Part of that regional instability has been the on-again-off-again electoral politics of Algeria where the military head made a public call for presidential elections to be held before the end of 2019. Clock’s ticking.
In regional elections, in Germany, Angela Merkel’s leading coalition parties maintained their hold on regional governments, but the far right Alternative for Deutschland continues to make large inroads in the German electorate, tripling their share of the vote in some cases. So while the Merkel-led CDU-SPD coalition could breathe a sigh of relief, it may be a short one.