Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, August 23, 2019
The Weekly Brief - August 23, 2019
Greenland… freeze that thought
If you had told me Greenland would be a headline issue in 2019, I would have laughed. In fact, I ignored initial reports of Trump’s overture to Denmark to purchase the autonomous island, and did not include them in the Weekly Brief. Well, time to discuss Denmark.
The short story: Trump floated some kind of land swap/purchase deal to Denmark, got rejected, then canceled his state visit to the Nordic kingdom, earning him opprobrium (of progressive and conservative strains) at home and consternation abroad.
Beneath the hyperbolic headlines, though, is history and real strategic interests as Time and the Washington Post lay out. The more interesting elements of this story (and the ones that got downplayed consistently in most press) is the fact that Greenland is autonomous, rendering a purchase from Denmark a dead on arrival deal; and as climate changes occur, more of Greenland is well… green, making it an increasingly strategic location.
The diplomatic spat may be on the back burner for now, but expect to hear more of Greenland with or without Trump in the White House.
The week in social media: The bias question and not-so-shadow-banning China
Facebook released the report of its internal audit on conservative bias this week, which was (predictably) attacked by conservatives for being too weak, and by liberals for being…. Too weak. Wait, what? Bipartisan agreement, I guess, but the conservatives and liberals see the weakness in two distinct ways. According to the Federalist, conservatives seem to see the weakness in the report going soft on Facebook, while liberals see the weakness in Facebook’s willingness to even do the audit in the first place.
In addition to the audit, Facebook and Twitter both made headlines this week announcing that the Chinese government has been using the platforms to spread disinformaiton on the HongKong protests. Those accounts were shut down. In such a dynamic environment, Axios reports that social media platforms are struggling to define their relationship to truth in terms of platform use.
Title X and Planned Parenthood
From Christianity Today:
“After a court of appeals ruled in favor a Trump administration policy barring federal funding for clinics that offer abortion referrals, Planned Parenthood announced on Monday it will withdraw from a government program that offers low-income women reproductive healthcare.”
It’s an undeniable win for the Trump administration’s pro-life supporters in their decades long battle against the leading provider of abortions in the US.
The loss of millions of federal dollars instantly generated a fundraising surge for Planned Parenthood as Variety Magazine announced it would cancel it’s Emmys party and donate the funds.
In terms of the culture wars, Daily Signal argues that Planned Parenthood’s decision to withdraw from Title X rather than decouple abortion from its other health services is a telling indicator of the organization’s priorities and raison d’etre.
2020: Recession, reelection, or both?
Last week, the possibility of a near term election seemed to have sent pundits down the rabbit hole. Recession = not good, right? Doesn’t matter who you are. Well, not exactly. The possibility of an election year recession got left-leaning outlets trumpeting the possibility of recession and the dangers it poses to Trump’s reelection chances. Daily Kos shares a CNN poll indicating public concern on the economy, and Vox argues that denying an imminent recession is deceptive.
Right-leaning outlets counter that the recession talk is overheated, and note that while a growing number of economists anticipate a recession, that group is split on whether the recession comes before or after the election. Conservative commentators acknowledge that an economic downturn could hurt Trump’s chances, especially given his high unfavorables, but it’s not all about the economy. Even the not-right-of-center FiveThirtyEight acknowledges that economists are rarely accurate in predicting recessions.
Trump, however, remains bullish on the economy and the GOP is hitting fundraising records. In the immediate future, it may not be the economy that undercuts Trump so much as a concerted primary challenge in his own party, massive budget deficits, and the movement of voters away from his base.
With friends like these…
A concern for geostrategic thinkers has been China’s aggression in Asia while the US squabbles with allies. That concern is proving prescient as The Print reports on Chinese aggression in the South China Sea vis a vis Vietnam.
In such circumstances, America needs strong coordination and cooperation with its Asia allies. That cooperation is growing between India, Japan and the US, and the South China Sea may be a first test of such cooperation. However, America’s allies in the region also include South Korea, which has its own escalating diplomatic tensions with Japan that could hamper efforts to contain China.
Whither the filibuster?
August is slow in Washington DC when Congress is on recess, but that didn’t stop Senators from sparring over the future of the filibuster as Mitch McConell warned Democrats against removing the filibuster should they win a majority in 2020 (some Dem presidential candidates favor such a move). The Atlantic offered the counterargument.