Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, August 9, 2019
The Weekly Brief - August 9, 2019
Dayton and El Paso
By now, there is not much to say about the facts of the mass shootings in El Paso and Dayton last week. The senseless violence and tragic loss of life is becoming all too familiar, even everyday if you’re Chicago. What adds despair to that tragedy, though, is the speed at which leaders rush to politicize such tragedies by blaming the rhetoric and/or behavior of their opponents while holding themselves aloof from any responsibility.
This dynamic was undeniably on display in the aftermath of the shootings: Democrats and left-leaning media outlets focused on the racist manifesto of the El Paso shooter and labeled President Trump as a white supremacist. Republicans and right-leaning media outlets appear to have largely focused on the Dayton shooter and his social media support for Elizabeth Warren, antifa, and gun control.
Rarely do circumstances allow such a natural social experiment to occur where the responses of two groups can be observed side by side in a such a way. It lends deep credibility to Austin Sarat and Jonathan Obert’s Politico essay that concludes both the left and right are getting the gun debate wrong. The two political parties, in particular, do not seem to be keeping step with shifting perspectives on guns and gun control in the American public. AEI points out that despite elite polarization, most Americans seem to agree that a major driver of the violence are significant cultural problems not easily fixed by individual policies.
Even as Congressional Democrats demanded that the Senate be brought back from recess to pass gun control legislation, and Republican Senator Lindsey Graham announced his backing of a “red flag” law, the question arose as to the effectiveness of such legislation. The Mises Institute goes even further to question the generally accepted truth that Congress has done nothing in the face of mass shootings. Certainly, the Executive branch appears to be girding for action, announcing that a proposal is under consideration to designate mass shootings as a capital offense. President Trump also announced his support for federal background checks.
Out of the by now standard fare of debates on gun control, two separate strands of discussion have emerged that are likely to shape the discussion on guns and mass shootings. Politico reports on a case before the Supreme Court on the future possibility of legal action against gun manufacturers.
The second strand of debate is over the designation of “domestic terrorism” as a federal offense. This debate stems mainly from the El Paso shooting and the shooter’s ties to white nationalism. Lawfare provides an excellent list of resources on domestic terrorism and right-wing extremism if you’re interested in a deeper dive on this topic.
China trade war is on like Hong Kong
Last week, Donald Trump had announced another round of tariffs on Chinese goods. Well, China responded with quite the one-two combo: allowing the yuan to devalue below the standard 7-to-1 ratio to the dollar and halting the purchase of all US agricultural goods. The result was a significant slide on the US stock market.
The US has been quick to respond with labeling China a currency manipulator, and VP Mike Pence suggested the possibility of opening a new front in the trade war with China: sanctions over human rights abuses. Such sanctions could serve the double role of keeping economic pressure on China while also giving Beijing pause in determining how it will respond to the ongoing mass protests in Hong Kong.
Kabul, Kashmir, Kaboom
The feast of Eid, closing the month of Ramadan, is generally a period of ceasefire in Afghanistan, but not this year as Taliban leader Mullah Hibbatullah Akhundzada urged his followers to keep up their momentum. It was a directive that was clearly followed as demonstrated by a massive suicide bombing in Kabul.
Kashmir, another South Asian flashpoint, is set to once again produce conflict between Pakistan and India as well. This week, in a truly significant, game changing move Indian Prime Minister Modi revoked Kashmir’s constitutional status as an autonomous region in India. This clears the way for direct administration of the Muslim-majority state by New Delhi.
It’s a complex conflict with deep historical roots going all the way back to the 1947 partition of India and Pakistan, but Husain Haqqani of the Hudson Institute argues that Pakistan should not get sucked into fighting over what is essentially a fait accompli.
Great Power Competition (GPC) in Venezuela
If re-upping the trade war with China, managing a restive North Korea and addressing gun violence in America wasn’t enough, the Trump administration upped the ante on Venezuela this week too. In a controversial move, President Trump placed Venezuela under a total economic embargo. The move was condemned by many as unnecessary and unjust, but speaking in Peru, administration officials made the case for the embargo as a sign of Trump’s commitment to ending the Maduro regime as well as rolling back Chinese and Russian influence in the region.
Puerto Rico two-step
If you think the week was spinning faster than you can comprehend, take a gander at Puerto Rican politics. Last week, I shared that Puerto Rico’s governor was stepping down. In the course of the last week, that governor was replaced. Twice.
Election watch
I spend a lot of time each week on American electoral dynamics, but we’ve also been tracking the on again off again electoral processes of several countries over the last several months.
In Tunisia, snap elections to replace the recently deceased president will be held September 15 and there are already 20 candidates in the running.
September also sees the Israeli election rerun and Benjamin Netanyahu is opening up a full court diplomatic press as part of his final push.
In Sudan, the standoff between the military and opposition coalition have agreed on a constitutional framework for a transitional government. The situation is still fragile, but it’s a positive step forward.
And while the above stories indicate a generally peaceful “business as usual” politics, Algeria is another matter. With protests against the military regime entering their sixth month, attempts at dialog with between the protesters and military are not going anywhere. The Carnegie Endowment sees a crisis looming, which would spell trouble for the already fragile North African region.
Down the line
Mass violence and the politics of gun control dominated the American news cycle this last week with the trade war with China a distant second. But news organizations at home and abroad were also flagging some other events to keep tabs on:
Axios creates a list of several potential global crises to keep an eye on, including 17 countries with at risk water supplies.
Al-Monitor offers a potential gleam of hope in the US-Iran conflict as the Iranian president appears to have stepped down preconditions for talks.
38North reveals that in the midst of an increased tempo of missile tests, North Korea has unveiled a new mobile launch system.
Time to talk!
If there’s one thing my mess of a newsfeed told me in the wake of last week’s horrific events, it was that friends and family of both conservative and progressive persuasions agree that America’s political system and culture is broken. So what to do? Politico is wondering the same thing and would like to hear solutions from you.
Speaking of talking...
Episode 2 of the TimTalksPolitics podcast went live yesterday! In it, I explore the distinction between politics and government. An important distinction, I think, if we’re to navigate the noisy information space. I’ll talk more specifically about the information environment in next week’s podcast.