Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, July 19, 2019
The Weekly Brief - July 19, 2019
Celebrating the good, past and present
This week marks the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landing. In a literal and figurative sense, the moon landing represents a height of American accomplishment in science technology and human endeavor. Apollo 11 seems far removed from our own time, but the Council on Foreign Relations argues that it is more relevant than ever.
A significant piece of good news that took the news cycle at least a day or two to get on top of was the announcement by the CDC that drug overdose deaths have decreased by 5% in the last year. This is the first decrease of its kind in over 20 years.
And in a rare piece praising the actions of the Trump Administration, Vox reports on an executive order signed by the president to streamline the process for kidney transplants.
Iran-US tete a tete
Tension in the Persian Gulf between Iran and the US seems to be taking on a general “tit for tat” nature. Iran has seized an oil tanker and America announced that it had shot down an Iranian drone. Such back and forth seems to be the general status quo of the simmering tensions between the two countries: Iran tries to mess with tankers and America responds with some show of military muscle.
Ebola threatens to go global
A global health emergency has been declared as the long-running Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo has reached the DRC border, threatening to spill over into other countries.
Afghanistan update
Even as American officials were reporting progress with Taliban officials on an eventual peace plan, Long War Journal reported on two separate Taliban attacks in Afghanistan this week. One attack targeted police forces in Kandahar while another succeeded in killing 25 Afghan commandos.
Turkey loses US jets
It's been awhile since we checked in on Turkey. With it's purchase of Russian anti-aircraft batteries finalized and parts being delivered, America has taken the step of banning the sale of F-35 next-gen fighters to Turkey. This marks a new low in Turkey's relationship with the US, but in a broader context it marks a new low in Turkey's relationship with the rest of NATO. Hudson Institute suggests ways the relationship can be rescued, but one wonders if any party really wants it at this point.
Tech and taxes
Another rough week for Big Tech companies in Silicon Valley. It all started with Peter Thiel suggesting that Google has been infiltrated by the Chinese and should be investigated by the US government. Axios then reports on FaceApp, it's facial recognition software, and its Russian ownership. The app was all the rage on Facebook this last week, but seemed to die down pretty quickly once this story broke. Those were just the PR nightmares.
On the policy front, France moved ahead with a digital services tax on internet companies making an excess of eight billion dollars a year. There are almost no French digital companies that make such money, so the move is seen as largely targeting Americans tech companies. Further, the EU has opened antitrust investigations against Amazon and Axios reports on antitrust hearings beginning in Congress related to Big Tech companies.
Stemming the tide at the border
Amidst increasingly intense pressure on the southern border, the Pentagon announced that more troops would be sent to secure the border with Mexico this week. Additionally, the United States implemented a “safe third country” rule to reduce the number of asylum-seekers at the border.
The rule essentially Allows individuals to apply for asylum in the United States only after they've received refugee status in a third country. For example, a migrant from Central America would need to receive refugee status from Mexico before applying for asylum status from the United States. Short of sweeping reform, it seems a generally common sense measure and is part of what’s leading swing voters to view Trump’s approach favorably.
Finding the gaps in the Chinese firewall
Pew Research posts the results of a lengthy global study on government restrictions on the freedom and practice of religion. Dishearteningly, the study finds that restrictions on religion have increased over the last 10 years. One of the countries that is highlighting this increase of restriction is China with its crackdown on both Christianity and Islam. The Strategist reviews satellite imagery of the re-education camps being used to crack down on the Chinese Uighur population, and AEI ominously notes that countries in the developing world who often receive Chinese infrastructure aid are very quiet on China's human rights abuses.
While we’re on the topic of China, it's interesting to note that in the midst of the trade war with the United States China's economic growth has hit a 27-year low. This might seem to indicate that the United States is on the verge of some kind of breakthrough with China, but it also increases the risk for the Trump Administration as AEI suggests that failing to reach a final deal with could cost Trump the election.
This Week, in Trump-induced outrage….
It's simply because this story dominated the news cycle this week that I'm putting it last. Once again taking to Twitter to once again make comments easily interpreted as racist by his critics, President Trump turned the simmering pot of polarized politics to boiling by suggesting new Democratic members of the House go back to their countries of origin if they're not happy with America. The series of tweets immediately resulted in a fresh outburst of Democratic fury over Trump's alleged racism, and a more or less party line vote in the House to term Trump's tweets as racist.
Sadly, in one sense, this story is nothing new. It's by now an established pattern with Trump that whenever things start to look even just a little normal between him and his Democratic foils in Congress, or when he's not at the center of the new cycle, he takes to Twitter to stir the pot. The President seems to have developed an uncanny ability to seize whole news cycles for days on end with such tactics. However, what made this outburst more notable was the way it not only directly targeted members of Congress who are all US citizens, but it concurrently received pushback from conservative commentators as well. The Daily Signal notes that the tweets distract heavily from the Trump administration's policy record at improving life for many minorities, and ultimately sacrifices the wellbeing of American citizens for coarse party politics. Rod Dreher and Daniel Larison at the American Conservative both express anger and deep criticism at Trump's actions.
So it seems that there's something of a bipartisan consensus here, right? Not really. The Atlantic shares some thoughts from Trump supporters at a North Carolina rally where the whole episode took an ugly turn as the crowd chanted “send her back” in reference to Representative Ilhan Omar. Trump supporters seem to be tracking Trump's policy record and weighing it more heavily than his words. And that seems to be showing up in the fundraising too as Trump far outdistanced his opposing field in second quarter fundraising.
Dynamics like this lead Politico to caution Democrats to go lightly on taking the bait every time Trump throws them something on Twitter.
And, in a reminder that I found useful for the more internationally focused content of this newsletter, the National Review argues that India's prime minister Narendra Modi is far more dangerous to liberal democracy’s future than Trump's tweeting.
Dems united?
A question that immediately came to my mind once I heard about Trump's tweets was, “Why would he say something that would unite the Democratic Party?” As you may recall the last couple of weeks, I've been sharing several stories noting the developing rifts within the party especially between House Speaker Pelosi and “the Squad” of progressive Congresswomen who Trump attacked in his Twitter storm. Well, that's precisely why he would unite the Democrats.
By uniting the Democrats it makes it easier to push a narrative that a vote for Democrats is a vote for the Squad. It's a narrative that becomes more plausible as Axios reports that the 2020 Democratic Senate candidates are more progressively minded like their 2018 House counterparts. Axios also reports that key Squad member Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and her antics have made her the face of the Democratic Party in critical swing states.
To make matters worse for Speaker Pelosi, who's been trying to keep a lid on the antics of the Progressive caucus, impeachment papers were brought to the House floor for the first time this week. The call for impeachment was promptly voted down, but demonstrates a weakening hold Pelosi has on her backbenchers. Additionally, Al-Monitor reports that this week Representative Omar brought pro-BDS legislation to the floor as well. Pushing impeachment and seeking to boycott divest and sanction Israel both fly in the face of Pelosi-led positions and are direct challenges to her leadership.
It turns the whole tweet fiasco into something of a political win for Trump as he publicly unites the Democrats in an unfavorable frame, and turns up pressure on Pelosi in the process.