Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, July 12, 2019

The Weekly Brief - July 12, 2019

I generally try to use multiple sources for each item in this newsletter, but a couple pieces this week seem to only be covered by one or two. However, I thought they were important enough to include.

New lows for AMLO

In Mexico, the ongoing influx of immigration through the country to the US border and the pressure felt by those who stay is contributing to political pressures on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

Those political pressures picked up for AMLO as his Finance Minister resigned this last week. The resignation is seen as a serious blow to the President’s administration in that the Finance Minister's resignation letter places responsibility for a struggling economy and political system on the president. It's leading some to wonder if AMLO, as the president is called, has misunderstood his mandate and is jeopardizing the political future of his party and administration.

Back to the border

The heat of summer has brought more intense scrutiny of border enforcement and immigration. Axios asked all the Democratic presidential candidates what they would do about child separation and other border enforcement measures and has a list of everyone's basic position.

One element of this immigration crisis that has been really under-reported is how the Central American governments view the crisis. I have not heard of a single head of state from Central America from speak on this issue. Until now. National Review shares comments from the El Salvadoran president on the immigration crisis.

The Democratic divide widens

With Eric Swalwell dropping out and Tom Steyer shockingly jumping in, the Democratic presidential field remains at 25. Steyer is a high-profile billionaire investor and businessman who has long been considered a potential candidate. However, FiveThirtyEight does not yet consider him a major contender especially considering he missed the first debate which seemed to have separated the frontrunners from the pack. It will be interesting to see how Steyer shifts the race, if at all, and if he contributes to moving candidates to take positions further to the left.

The push and pull between the progressive-left and the center-left wings of the democratic party is spilling out beyond the presidential debate to the simmering rivalry that has developed between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and freshman Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The long-anticipated, or assumed but never really quite public rivalry, broke out in full view this week as Ocasio-Cortez went after Pelosi after the latter’s earlier reprimanding of progressive Reps for dividing the party. Ocasio-Cortez returned fire accusing Pelosi of essentially making it difficult for women of color to serve. The insinuation of being anti-woman and racially prejudiced hasn't seemed to sway Pelosi.

That there is a real debate in the Democratic Party over just how far left they will go is no longer up for dispute so it's a good question to ask more broadly. Just how far left is the Democratic Party platform likely to be and would such a left-leaning platform be practicable as policy? Hoover Institution publishes an essay analyzing key policy positions of the developing progressive agenda.

The Trump Advantage?

So, as 2020 approaches and the Democratic presidential primaries heat up, attention is turning to Trump's favorables (and the economy is a big one). Beyond the economy, though, there are other areas where Trump might be looking to gain advantage. Patrick Buchanan at the American Conservative offers one such perspective on why Trump is currently enjoying some of his highest approval ratings. Additionally, Pew Research finds that President Trump enjoys very strong support from veterans on his military leadership. This shows a general approval of his handling of foreign policy higher than that expressed by the general public.

Iranian diplomacy goes nuclear

Support from the military on things like foreign policy is a key vote of confidence for President Trump going into the presidential election, especially as Iran announces that it is surpassing the JCPOA uranium enrichment levels, rendering the agreement all but dead. Vox supplies a good break down on the enrichment process and what increasing enrichment levels entails. And while the announcement is a concern for many on the possibility of a nuclear armed Iran, the Council on Foreign Relations notes that this is but one component of building a nuclear arsenal and doesn't exactly guarantee that's what Iran can or will do.Seemingly in response, although maybe just part of the ongoing maximum pressure campaign on Iran, the United Kingdom seized an Iranian oil tanker off of Gibraltar this week sparking another diplomatic row with Tehran.

Iraqi democracy goes to the streets

Across the border in Iraq, it seems that the government in Baghdad has run up against some strong resistance in some arenas. Protests in the southern city of Basra over poor government services and endemic corruption threaten to spread to other regions. Basra is a dominantly Shi’ite city in a country with a strong Sunni-Shi’ite divide. So, a decree from the government in Baghdad to fold Shi’ite militias into the Iraqi army has sparked off other protests as well. It’s looking to be an unsettling summer in Iraq, which may also lessen Iranian influence in the country.

The new America takes shape

In 2016, I had a hard time understanding how immigration became such a winning issue for President Trump. Why were voters living in states far removed from America's southern border so concerned about immigration policy? Well, I think at least part of the answer can be found in several stories Axios reported on this last week.

First, Axios reports that many immigrants are moving to America's smaller cities in the Midwest and South, and that America's diversity is increasing the fastest in the middle states and not on the coast. So we’re seeing a rapidly changing demographic picture in some economically depressed regions.

On top of that, Axios shares the results of a McKinsey study that looks at where economic inequality is most likely to increase in the US and guess what? Those states expected to be hit the hardest due to job automation and job loss in the coming decades happen to be the middle America states that are seeing these significant influxes of immigration.

So, for people who were already suffering from a hard economy's and feeling left behind, the correlation, however spurious, between hard to find jobs and the influx of immigration could easily be feeding an anti-immigration impulse.

But…. what about a recession?

And while the economy continues to look good after a very strong June jobs report, there's still concern over a coming recession. American Enterprise Institute looks at the surging stock market and the lower yield bond market and isn't quite sure what to make of it.

China update

As the US-China trade war seems to have reached something of a truce since the G20 Summit it might be helpful to take stock of a few key points of analysis on the unfolding rivalry.

First, AEI reports that China's global business footprint has shrunk in 2019. While the number of Chinese business transactions in the global economy have not gone down significantly, the size of those transactions have. It seems that Chinese businesses are focusing on Belt and Road initiatives but at lower levels.

Second, the Hudson Institute outlines the national security threat that Chinese tech giant Huawei poses outside of China by considering how China is leveraging 5G technology within its own borders.

One area that I do not see being talked about enough with China is demographics. Axios reports that demographics might be a critical piece in the US-China rivalry, and it likely will not be a Chinese advantage