Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, June 14, 2019

The Weekly Brief - June 14, 2019

Hong Kong upheaval

Protests of up to a million people erupted in Hong Kong this last week. Protesters marched in opposition to an extradition bill they fear will make it easier for dissidents to be prosecuted in mainland China. The Council on Foreign Relations interviews one of Hong Kong’s dissident leaders to provide an inside perspective on Hong Kong politics and protests.

Tying the knot? China, Russia and 5G

The protests come with an interesting parallel: At a Moscow meeting this week, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin announced that embattled tech giant Huawei will build Russia’s 5G network, a move which many interpreted as the most concrete step yet towards a more formal alliance between the two countries.

An alliance of two such authoritarian countries lends credence to continued concerns of “democratic decline,” which Larry Diamond outlines in Foreign Affairs.

With friends like these...

But if Russia is allying itself with China, where does that leave President Trump? American media outlets had a midweek meltdown over Trump's comments in an interview saying he didn’t see receiving information on political opponents from a foreign entity as interference.

The by now predictable reaction in the press was to rehash allegations of Trump-Russia collusion in the 2016 election, and House Democrats immediately moved to produce legislation outlawing any such activity.

However, War on the Rocks publishes an excellent essay co-authored by an American and Russian on the dangers facing the US-Russia relations, which are in part fed by the ongoing media frenzy surrounding the alleged collusion. Putin, himself is reported to have said that US-Russia relations are on a downward trend and getting worse. There seems to be a genuine realignment of world powers occurring, that most American politicians and media outlets are missing.

On forests, trees, and Democrats

Missing the forest for the trees is going to become increasingly relevant line of attack on Democratic candidates as primary debates and elections approach.

While many Democratic leaders are upping the volume on calls for impeaching Trump and doubling down on major progressive policy initiatives like climate change and medicare for all, there are some distinct gaps opening up in the field, and some potential pitfalls as well.

California is emerging as the leading state to actually put more progressive policy initiatives in play. Sacramento moved towards providing health care coverage for illegal immigrants this week.

However, California’s Democratic Party convention in San Francisco may have exposed a rift between ideological progressives and working class Democrats that could have implications for presidential candidates. On a similar note, Axios reports on focus group findings in Pennsylvania that suggest working class voters may be sticking with Trump in the face of Democrats’ increasingly leftward turn.

That might not bode well for Sanders and his hopes for a more socialist approach to American economic planning and organization. Bernie Sanders repeated his 2015 play of laying out a democratic socialist platform in a major speech, which the public (and Sander’s opponents) have largely seemed to laugh off.

So how can Democratic candidates develop a unifying message that connects the disparate wings of the party and give it the best chance of defeating Donald Trump in 2020? FiveThirtyEight provides a possible path forward by breaking down state-level data on major issues and policies being addressed by state governors. Education, health care, criminal justice, and the environment are just some of those issues and should be encouraging to the Democratic field.

However, FiveThirtyEight notes while the topics are similar across the states, how governors are addressing them is different. Those distinctions should be taken into account.

Immigration and tariff threats

Amidst the ongoing border debate, President Trump claimed last week that the threat of tariffs brought Mexico around on border security. According to a deal reached with the Mexican government, Mexico agreed to deploy elements of its National Guard to beef up border security. The Federalist believes that such a deal is mostly a sham and won’t change facts on the ground.

However, the American Enterprise Institute notes that media coverage and policy analysis of the deal has been pretty incoherent, which indicates that no one really knows the effectual extent of the deal.

So let’s go back to basics and start with some basic immigration facts. Perhaps the most relevant is that the profile of unauthorized immigrant population in the US is changing. Mexico is no longer the leading source of illegal immigrants, but merely the main transit point.

The promises and perils of ACTFA

Last month, the Weekly Brief introduced readers to the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (ACTFA), which created the world’s largest free trade zone. With border restrictions easing to facilitate freer movement of people and goods around the continent, the Council on Foreign Relations takes a look at some of the challenges the agreement still faces, and Brookings considers how countries can work to ensure their global competitiveness under the agreement.

A sobering counterpoint to the promise of ACTFA, though, is the ongoing political and public health challenges on the continent. The continuing ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo jumped across the border with Uganda this week, claiming its first victim in that country.

India-Pakistan: Two to tango

With Narendra Modi firmly ensconced in his position as India’s Prime Minister after his reelection last month, experts are not turning their attention to that most critical of Indian conundrums, the relationship with Pakistan.

The two nuclear-armed states have had a testy year with armed clashes in Kashmir happening in February.

Modi’s government is refusing Pakistani requests for a heads of state meeting until Pakistan actually has a deal to offer. Wise though that may be, Pakistani leader Imran Khan’s administration is on the clock and facing increasing pressure for some kind of breakthrough in the midst of an increasingly dire economic and political picture.