Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, May 17, 2019
The Weekly Brief - May 17, 2019
Alabama HB314
America’s “culture war” over abortion broke out anew this week as the Alabama state legislature passed HB 314 criminalizing the vast number of abortions.
Pro-life and pro-choice advocates quickly jumped to battle stations, but Daily Kos seems to think the bill heralds the beginning of the end for the pro-life position. Certainly, as Vox points out, abortion is still legal in all 50 states and none of the so-called “heartbeat bills” have gone into effect.
What both sides clearly understand, though, is that one or all of these bills will be going to the Supreme Court sooner rather than later, leaving many to believe that this is the opening phase of a final push to overturn the 1973 Supreme Court ruling in Roe vs. Wade.
The Democrats’ dozen(s)
Fun fact: You could now have a 24-7 news channel where you devote an hour a day to each Democratic candidate. That’s right, there are now 24 presidential hopefuls in the race for the nomination with New York Mayor Bill de Blasio being the latest to throw his hat in the ring.
Despite the numbers, it would appear that Joe Biden is the clear front runner, and he’s acting like it.
By focusing his attacks on Donald Trump and being dismissive of Progressive attacks from his own party’s left wing, Biden is opening up a gap between himself and other contenders.
Politico looks at Biden’s campaign and considers if the Progressives in the party may have misread the primary landscape given Biden’s surge. That might be a bit early, but it does put the divide between Progressives and moderates in the Democratic party front and center as the primaries approach.
And while it seems the Democrats have plenty of talent to throw at winning back the White House, concerns are mounting that such a strategy may result in being unable to win back the Senate.
Hoping to not make her party a pariah to moderate American voters, Nancy Pelosi has largely canned further talk of impeachment, but FiveThirtyEight notes that House Dems are running out of moves when it comes opposing the Trump administration. This all leaves Conrad Black at the National Review retaining a bullish outlook on Trump’s 2020 chances.
Trade war with China
China and the US traded salvos in the renewed trade war this week as China hiked tariffs on US imports and President Trump signed an executive order declaring a national emergency on telecom security, which is broadly interpreted to be the first step in banning Chinese tech giant Huawei from the US.
The American Enterprise Institute wonders if China is deploying a more effective economic strategy than the US, but ultimately concludes that China’s strategy may only be strong on paper.
This is because China still has slow moving political social stresses, and may not be prepared (or able) to back parts of their strategy with effective military force.
Given that, the Strategist cautions against ratcheting up the rhetoric to “clash of civilizations” levels. Doing some insightful triangulation on the trade war, Politico reports that one country that is benefiting from the trade war is Mexico.
Tensions with Iran
When last we checked in, Iran was appearing to step back from the JCPOA and the US had parked a carrier group in the Persian Gulf… just in case. In case what? Maybe in case an oil tanker got sabotaged or something.
It’s a dizzying sequence of events to keep up with and The Atlantic has a helpful essay outlining this most recent Iran-US imbroglio. Iran vehemently denied any involvement in the sabotaging of oil tankers in the UAE, though the US remains unconvinced.
The saber rattling has many wondering at the likelihood of war, but Trump is refusing to commit any ground troops (for now), and in a rare conciliatory-ish statement, the Supreme Leader of Iran publicly stated that Iran does not want a war.
In fact, it’s unlikely that America wants a war either, which presents an opportunity for a strategically placed partner to hopefully mediate between the two countries. A country like Iraq, perhaps?
Poverty in America
With the renewed China-US trade war tumbling stocks and data pointing to alarming trends on private debt, the general health of the US economy is a discussion worth having.
As economic indicators, the stock market and lending practices certainly help in painting a picture of weak points in the economy, but they don’t automatically provide a narrative of an economy about to turn.
In fact, the American Enterprise Institute argues that at least one significant measure of economic health: worker wages, is one measure that has had a false narrative built around it based on the time period the data evaluates.
In other words, numbers are fungible and you have to look closely and what is being measure and how to ensure you paint an accurate picture of reality. AEI provides an interesting example of this “reality painting” by looking at poverty rates in different American states.
Sudan updates
Last month, Omar al-Bashir, the 30-year president of Suda was deposed by his military. Just this week, the military and opposition leaders agreed on a 3-year framework to transition to civilian rule. That’s a positive step forward, but there are plenty of uncertainties that remain.
One of those uncertainties is South Sudan, where a delayed peace deal is still not fully in effect to end civil conflict there.
The potential for spillover from that conflict is high, and given the fragility of Sudan at this juncture, it’s not hard to imagine a situation where the military believes they should stay in power a little while longer.
News Flashes
And finally, some quick hits on significant stories that got swallowed in the news cycle.
Palestinian politics
In a rather unique twist in Palestinian politics, Al-Monitor reports on the May 1 announcement of a new Palestinian political party - the Reform and Development party.
Ostensibly, it’s a party concerned with being an alternative to the corrupted PA and PLO, but PA leaders smell a US-Israeli attempt to divide and conquer.
Given the challenges Mahmoud Abbas’ PA is facing in reconciling with Hamas, it makes sense that a voice of criticism within may appear threatening.
Mr. Orban goes to Washington
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban visited Washington DC this week where he was hosted by President Trump.
Critics are quick to draw parallels between the two populist leaders, but the American Conservative points out some substantive differences between the two leaders that often go unnoticed.
Ukraine
It’s been awhile since I’ve shared any stories on the Ukraine-Russia conflict in the Donbas, now in its fourth year. The Daily Signal posted a very interesting essay on developments in that conflict that suggest Ukraine may be slowly gaining ground.
Free trade in Africa
Axios reports that the world’s largest free trade zone is about to open up on the continent of Africa. Seriously, it’s huge. Of over 50 countries on the continent, only three or four are not on board… yet. It’ll be fascinating to see what this move does for infrastructure development on the continent.