Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, May 3, 2019
The Weekly Brief - May 3, 2019
The United States of Social Media
Sometimes you have to wait a few weeks before you actually get the right stories in place to get a more fully orbed picture of an issue. Such was the case this month in the realm of social media.
Pew Research has been doing some research on Twitter users and revealed some surprising things. Most notably, 80% of content is generated by just 10% of users. National Review notes that this activity (and Twitter more broadly) does not reflect the general scope of American views and the voice of American voters. This comes even as Twitter unveils new partnerships and strategies towards moving into the video streaming space.
Not to be outdone by its noxious little cousin, Facebook also announced new designs coming to the platform, the better able to build a more people centered community according to Mark Zuckerberg.
However, not all is peaches and cream. War on the Rocks posts a great essay on this era in which we live as the new age of propaganda.
Maduro muddles on… I think
Tensions flamed anew in Venezuela this week as National Assembly leader and claimed Juan Guaido launched a new round of protests that quickly got turned into something of a military uprising.
This last week was confusing with Guaido claiming authority, then President Maduro claiming that the coup had been put down. What is very clear is that there were armed clashes and people have died. In the United States, that confusion led to a lot of charges and counter-charges on America's position on Venezuela. The Trump administration stood by its support of Guaido, and some officials even went so far as to contemplate what military action would look like.
However, conservative and progressive voices alike are arguing that regime change is not a good idea for Venezuela (not to mention illegal). The Atlantic reports that this is merely a regime change plan that has backfired on the US, but it probably goes deeper than that. America is not the only great actor engaged here. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo claims that Maduro would have left the country in the face of the uprising were it not for some timely backbone supplied by Russia.
Poway and America’s anti-Semitism
There's a tragic symmetry in the week that contained Holocaust Remembrance Day: An attack on a synagogue in Poway, California was carried out by a white nationalist the same week as the international edition of The New York Times published cartoon trafficking in anti-Semitic tropes. The Anti-Defamation League reports that there’s been a rise in anti-Semitic attacks in the US in the last year.
China’s diplomatic tightrope
It's been interesting week for China, or rather reporting on China. Politico argues that the ongoing work on China's Belt and Road initiative is a strategic challenge that America ignores at its peril. However, Brookings suggests that one reason why America may not be actively countering the Belt and Road initiative is because China's own international development strategy seems so unclear.
Not only that, but America is not the only country that needs to or will counter China. Different think tanks this week published work looking at the response different regions of the world are having towards China's expanding plays for global influence. Carnegie Endowment notes that China pushing into the Middle East is actually a risk for China while the Strategist reports that Central Asia is growing increasingly suspect of China. This is a particularly important piece since Central Asia figures large in the Belt and Road initiative.
So, while the temptation is to focus on division between the United States and Europe over responding to China, the future of Chinese power might get written in other parts of the world.
The Gordian Knot of infrastructure
In a rare show of at least tacit bipartisanship, President Trump and Democratic Congressional leaders Pelosi and Schumer met to discuss the possibility of an infrastructure bill this week. Infrastructure appears to be something everybody is in favor of, but just how to do it is something of a challenge.
That challenge has become more difficult as what constitutes infrastructure becomes more complex. It's not just bridges and roads, but digital infrastructure like 5G networks. Politico also reports on the subtle changes to America's electricity that will influence future infrastructure from more centrally planned to more localized and agile infrastructure.
Where go the Democrats?
Daily Kos ran a poll this week that showed Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren surging, at least among Progressive voters, so it seems like some front-runners are emerging in the Democratic primary fight.
However, Biden is only a week into his run for the presidency and already facing questions over his approach to China, in which he appears to be not just out of touch with the bipartisan consensus but also, perhaps a little too cozy.
Additionally, some interesting cleavages have opened up in the Democratic party on energy and foreign policy. National Review reports that the uprising in Venezuela has Democrats split between those who support Guaido and those who support Maduro or least want America to stay uninvolved. And, in an effort to separate himself from the pack, Beto O'Rourke ran right into an environmentalist buzzsaw when he unveiled a revised Green New Deal that lengthens the timeline for implementation to 2050 rather than 2030.
Additionally, the ongoing fight for party control between the left wing and more moderate center seems to keep putting the left on the losing side. FiveThirtyEight explores why this might be the case. One of the conventional wisdom pieces that seems to be wrapped up in all this is where younger voters fall.
Generally accepted to be more liberal, younger voters are generally assumed to go for the more Progressive left-leaning Democrats. National Review suggests that younger Millennials and Gen-Z aren't necessarily as down on capitalism as some of their more vocal and public co-generationals wood have you believe.
Following up
North Korea-Russia summit
Concerns about North Korea doing an end-run around America in Kim Jong Un's summit with Vladimir Putin seem to have largely been overplayed as Kim departs Moscow with no visible sanctions relief from Russia.
US-Iran tete-a-tete
Following up its designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization, United States removed several oil waivers that had allowed for limited oil exportation from Iran. Between designating the IRGC as a terrorist organization and removing the waivers, Washington has tightened the screws on Iran about as far as they can go short of Iran (over)reacting(?). However, the effects are unknown. The Strategist seems to think this will lead to greater instability in the region.