Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, April 12, 2019
The Weekly Brief - April 12, 2019
Nobody puts Bibi in a corner
Israeli elections were held Tuesday with Benjamin Netanyahu securing an unprecedented fifth term as prime minister. The win cements Bibi’s iconic place in Israeli history and politics, however, it remains to be seen how this will affect Netanyahu's diplomatic position vis a vis the Palestinians.
Not only did Netanyahu's Likud party form a governing coalition with very conservative parties, partly on the back of a promise to annex West Bank settlements, but much of this conservative vote was buoyed by younger voters. So the election is not just a choice for Netanyahu, but it might actually signal a more conservative turn for Israel over the long-term.
The initial Palestinian response appears to have been concerned but muted, but this will certainly put a hard edge on any efforts at peace negotiations.
Simmering Saharan Africa
Saharan Africa grew increasingly unstable this week as fighting picked up in Libya. The US withdrew its remaining troops that were in the country on support missions and the UN suspended an upcoming peace conference. These are all signals to suggest that this is going to be a serious conflict as General Hifter’s troops roll towards Tripoli.
In Algeria, despite the removal of President Bouteflika, the Algerian Parliament’s selection of an interim president was rejected by Algerians who continue to be in the street. New elections are set for July 4, but Algeria's economy becomes increasingly untenable. An economic crisis may be in the offing.
The new addition to the neighborhood woes this week was Sudan, where the army announced that they had deposed 30-year dictator Omar al-Bashir. Bashir is wanted by the International Criminal Court in The Hague for war crimes in both South Sudan and Darfur. It's a significant moment of change for a Sudan and provides an opportunity for America to hit a reset button with one of Africa's largest countries. Brookings offers some insight as to how Congress can support Sudan in making the transition to a post-Bashir government.
I’m not a terrorist, you’re a terrorist!
The Trump Administration made another big move in it's foreign policy this week by declaring the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a terrorist organization. Such a move has long been demanded or desired by many, but it's unclear just what the objective is.
It is the first time that America has declared a state agent a terrorist organization, a precedent which was not lost on Iran who quickly responded in kind by declaring the US Central Command a terrorist organization. Despite the diplomatic tit-for-tat there's something more serious going on. The American Conservative worries that America may have just declared war on Iran with hardly anyone noticing. Strong statement isn't it?
However, with an Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) in place that gives the president wide-ranging powers to use force against terrorist organizations it is not a stretch of the imagination to see military attacks being launched against the IRGC in places like Syria.
The only problem is this organization is not a non-state actor. So while in theory the designation makes sense (no one disagrees with the IRGC being a sponsor of terrorism) the concern is that the trade-offs might be more cost than benefit for having taken such an unprecedented step.
Some wonder if this doesn't signal an unhealthy obsession with Iran on the part of the Trump Administration. This could mostly be a distraction that could walk the US into conflict when the focus should be on China and Russia.
Indian elections
Starting this past Thursday, India went to the polls in the larges exercise of popular democracy. It's a major referendum on sitting Prime Minister Modi and his BJP party and we'll see if they can hold on to power.
However, we will have to wait a good six weeks and full results are not expected until May. Coordinating a million polling stations and counting a billion ballots takes a while.
An "Unplanned" success?
An American cultural issue that has received an interesting and potentially paradigm-shifting twist this last week. An independent film titled Unplanned made a surprising showing at the box office over the last couple of weeks.
The film tells the story of a former Planned Parenthood site manager turned pro-life advocate. The film takes the pro-life position out of the realm of policy and squarely into the realm of popular culture.
The American Enterprise Institute reports that the film plus court rulings in favor of “heartbeat laws” have given the pro-life movement momentum in the abortion debate, but suggests a cautious approach at the policy level.
China and... not America
With trade talks between the US and China in their apparent homestretch it's worth turning our attention to China's relationship with the rest of the world. After all, if China plans to be a global superpower, those ambitions will affect other countries.
One of those countries is Japan. The Hudson Institute analyzes Japan’s China strategy, and War on the Rocks provides details on Japan's challenge to China's Belt and Road initiative. The Hudson Institute also discusses EU-China relations and the growing concerns in Europe over Chinese ambitions.
Julian Assange
WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange was arrested yesterday when the Ecuadorian embassy in London allowed British authorities inside to arrest him.
While Assange was arrested on charges in Britain, he’s also been in indicted in the US and it's expected that he will be extradited.
While many in the United States celebrated the arrest of Assange, the American Conservative raises a warning flag on how the arrest of Julian Assange could set a worrying precedent for press freedoms.
“Like the falling of small stones that start an avalanche…”
Two stories that got almost no attention this last week but really deserve some:
First, Africa's continent-wide free-trade area went into effect this week. The agreement opens up a free-trade space for a large number of African nations which should give regional economies a significant boost. However, Brookings sounds a warning on increasing debt spending by African countries. There's a concern here that a debt crisis could hit Africa if fiscal responsibility is not developed alongside developing economies.
Der Spiegel reports on negotiations between Kosovo and Serbia over changing their borders. It's an unnerving discussion as border conflict is synonymous with war in the Balkans, so it's a matter of concern to keep an eye on.
Updates
Some quick updates on other stories that the Weekly Brief has been following over the last few weeks.
In the American college admissions scandal, several parents have pled guilty to bribing college admission officials to get their kids admitted to elite schools.
Sitting before Congress to testify on the Mueller report, Attorney General William Barr announced that a redacted version of the report would be made available to Congress within a week.
The Democratic primaries received a couple more candidates including California Rep Eric Swalwell and, despite a bruising PR week, Joe Biden is apparently set to make an announcement about running for president within the month.
For NATO’s a jolly good fellow...
Finally, it was NATO's 70th birthday this week. Despite the skepticism that the Trump administration has often heaped on the alliance, AEI notes that it is still critical for the security of Europe. Former US ambassador to Sweden Azita Raji lauds NATO’s Partnership for Peace program as being exceptional diplomacy by the alliance in the post Cold War world.