Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, April 5, 2019

The Weekly Brief - April 5, 2019

New Mexico Undermines Electoral College

In one of the more interesting subplots to the upcoming 2020 election, New Mexico joined a number of other states in a move to abolish the Electoral College by fait accompli. The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact essentially commits signatory states to give all their electoral votes to the national popular vote winner. Real Clear Politics argues that getting rid of the Electoral College is a very risky proposition for all its perceived deficiencies.

The Democratic Primary Scrum

It’s been some weeks since the Democratic primary was last covered in this newsletter and so a quick update: More Democrats have announced that they will be running for president.

That's really all you need to know. It’s hardly news anymore.

One of the things that does stand out is South Bend, Indiana mayor Pete Buttigieg climbing into the top tier of poll leaders. Notable because he is a mayor of only a midsize city and he is gay, which would both set historical precedents were he to win through to the nomination.

Speculation was rife that he actually could, but FiveThirtyEight cautions that with such a huge field poll numbers are actually getting misleading. So, with newcomers to the race and fence-sitters like Joe Biden and former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams strongly hinting that they're thinking of running, the Democratic primaries at this stage are basically a wild scrum.

The wide open field raises an interesting question: just what will be the narrative and issues that the Democratic Party chooses to emphasize and run on in 2020? Stacey Abrams really believes that identity politics are a winning strategy while National Review notes that the conclusion of the Mueller investigation is fracturing any progressive unity in opposing Donald Trump.

Vox notes that authenticity seems to be the main measure of what makes a candidate popular in this crowded field.

In other words, no one knows anything but they'll still write about it, which leads National Review to conclude there are some surprises ahead.

Open the Border and Pass the Guacamole!

The week started with Donald Trump threatening to close the border with Mexico prompting all manner of alarm from opponents with concerns ranging from economic to humanitarian to avocado shortages.

Though Trump backed off his threat of closing the border, immigration officials continue to voice concern over the escalating number of families who are arriving and overwhelming the resources on hand to process and care for them.

The American Enterprise Institute notes that both Republicans and Democrats are misconstruing the problems on the border and that the border crisis is worsening as a result.

Immigration and border issues will certainly be issues Democrats try to hang around Trump’s neck in the 2020 election, but Vox argues that Democrats should be careful because Trump might have a pretty strong foreign policy record to run on in 2020.

Regulating Social Media

Seeking to get out in front of the ongoing criticism of social media and calls for it to be a more responsible social actor, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg made some surprising announcements this last week.

Zuckerberg called for additional Federal regulation of social media and announced changes to Facebook’s algorithms allowing apparently greater transparency to its users.

Harvard Business Review asks a critical question in light of recent developments: Can Zuckerberg rebuild trust in Facebook? The question was made the more relevant by stories of Facebook storing user data on unsecured Amazon servers.

The American Conservative argues that of course Facebook is ready for regulation because it would protect its status as an industry leader.

The American Enterprise Institute is skeptical that any type of government regulation can really improve social media given its vast spread, diversity and ever-changing landscape. For every Facebook problem you solve, you might end up with YouTube problems as the video platform hit the PR buzzsaw with rising criticism over its handling of extremist content.

Eyes on North Africa

The Council on Foreign Relations argues this week that America needs to rethink its approach to North Africa.

Driving this analysis is the ongoing unrest in Algeria where a major breakthrough occurred as President Bouteflika officially resigned his post. While this certainly was a major goal of street protesters, it leaves the military and other key regime elements firmly in control and so any hope of a new kind of regime in Algeria seems to be on pause for the moment.

Meanwhile in Libya, the East-West war than has been rumbling for the last couple of weeks seems to be moving into a full conflict as Libyan warlord General Haftar has mobilized his forces in the east against the Presidential National Council in the West.

Yemen Update

Following the lead of the US Senate that has called for an end to US support for Saudi Arabia in Yemen, the Democratic-led House passed a resolution to end US military involvement in Yemen.

The moves by Congress to force the Trump administration out of the Yemen conflict come as the American Conservative reports that the cholera outbreak in Yemen is worsening.

Elections Roundup (Turkey, Ukraine, Thailand)

Elections across the world last week suggest a mixed record for democracy.

Elections in Turkey and Ukraine both delivered rebukes to status quo parties. Opposition parties in Turkey won local elections and took over mayoral offices in major cities across the country. In Ukraine, dark horse candidate comedian Volodymyr Zelensky took first in the first round of voting and will now face off against the next two finishers in a runoff election.

Democracy fared less well, however, in Thailand where elections there suggest that the military is building a broader base of support than initially thought. It should probably be seen as much as a security minded move vis a vis China is it seems a response to weak democratic institutions within the country.

Elections to keep an eye on this coming week: Israel.

The 5G Battleground

You can see commercials for 5G networks on American TV but there's a geostrategic struggle over 5G that is less noticeable.

That competition is between America and China as the two struggle to be leaders in networking the world into a 5G Internet. Conventional wisdom says China is ahead of America on this game, but Hudson Institute argues that America can still win this battle.

Certainly the travails of Chinese tech giant Huawei can be a speed bump to Chinese advancement on the 5G front. The most recent knock on Huawei came from British security agencies who published a report critiquing the company’s lack of security measures.