Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, March 29, 2019
The Weekly Brief - March 29, 2019
Ukraine Elections
There are elections in Ukraine this weekend. It's a three-way race and an open question whether or not the main parties will come out on top or if a dark horse comedian will win out.
The American Interest reports that in Ukraine, given its divisive politics and ongoing conflict with Russia, rule rule by autocrat might be in the offing.
Mueller Sets the Barr
And the “verdict” is in as special investigator Robert Mueller turned in his report to Attorney General William Barr on alleged collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign in 2016.
The report apparently finds the Trump Administration innocent of collusion with Russia and more or less exonerates the president on that count, though in a summary statement, Barr stated that the President is not necessarily exonerated of obstruction of justice…. but not indicted either.
The letter, and the lack of publicity of the report, immediately engendered a backlash of criticism and anger from Trump opponents ranging from Democratic members of Congress to the Resistance and its media outlets. The end of the Mueller investigation hasn't stopped Democrats from continuing on their course to investigate the Trump Administration on other counts, though apparently it has cooled the heels of some on pursuing impeachment.
House Democrats have demanded that Barr testify before Congress by April 2nd which Daily Kos suggests he's likely to ignore. The scrambling for a response, whether it's to double down on the accusation of collusion or to shift tactics to other investigations, leaves little doubt that Democrats are looking for new grist for their mills.
The outcome, according to Vox, is unmistakably a major political victory for Trump. Whether or not he'll play on that in the upcoming elections is of course another matter, his polling numbers have held very steady in the face of the investigation.
Brexit Bomb
On the other side of the pond, Brexit is looking more and more chaotic as a week of ongoing negotiations with the EU has achieved an extended deadline (now April 12 or May 22, not March 29), but Theresa May is getting desperate and promising to even step down if only Parliament would pass a Brexit plan.
Eight different plans have been put forward in Parliament this week and all have been defeated. What's next is anybody's guess.
Algeria’s Aging Revolution
In the unfolding drama in Algeria, the army finally turned on President Bouteflika, declaring him unfit to lead. While this might signal a military coup and transition government, the rejection of such a plan by protesters in the street demonstrates that even the military is losing its grip on power.
What this means is that Algeria is moving past its revolutionary roots and is looking to a new political future. What that future might look like is not clear. The Strategist reports that Algeria's participation in multilateral organizations and its role as a go between among countries at odds in the region may place its global role in jeopardy.
Facebook… Just, Facebook
After a few rough weeks it should have been a good week for Facebook who announced that it would work to ban white nationalist and content as hate speech on the platform.
But Facebook can't seem to win for losing as they're now facing a lawsuit brought against them by the Housing and Urban Development for discrimination in their ad algorithms.
Pompeo and American Diplomacy
Trump might have won on the Mueller investigation, but his foreign policy is coming under increasing scrutiny especially as the State Department, led by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, has doubled down on American support for Saudi Arabia despite its horrific role in the Yemen civil war.
In Yemen, a new cholera outbreak now threatens the lives of tens of thousands of children, and American support for Saudi Arabia has changed little despite loud clamoring from Congress to end support for Saudi military action.
Carnegie Endowment reports that Mike Pompeo has done little to revive America's diplomatic standing in the world since the departure of Rex Tillerson and opens the questions to just what American diplomacy ought to look like going forward.
Golan Gambit
A couple weeks ago, I reported on what seemed to be a small matter given its minimal coverage in American media and that was Trump's recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.
That story however has blown up in the last week as think tanks and American media have caught up with policy. Providence Magazine gives you a brief primer on the Golan Heights and what you need to know and the Council on Foreign Relations looks at the strategic calculus behind Trump's decision.
China’s Italian Job
They say turnabout is fair play and I guess that applies even 800 years after the fact. In something of a role reversal from the days of Marco Polo, China found itself going west to the Italians to cement a trade deal as part of the larger Belt and Road strategy.
The deal could pose a direct risk to the European Union and its ongoing tightrope act between trade with China and trade with the US. Two interesting pieces from the Hoover Institution consider whether or not China's ability to land trade deals in Europe is a sign of its growing power or if it's just the high-water mark.
Hoover’s Gordon Chang also argues that China never was a superpower and it will not be any time soon which is a fairly astounding claim.
The Bear Before the Bull?
Two potentially large economic stories emerged this last week. Axios reports that stock buybacks in 2018 hit set records and drove a lot of the stock market gains in the last year. There's all sorts of things one can conclude from this trend from businesses becoming more fiscally conservative and wanting to hedge against potential downturns to increasing investment in research and development to increasing gaps between large companies and small companies.
American Enterprise Institute reports that what we could be looking at are the gathering forces before a burst of innovation. The report notes that in previous innovation transitions there's usually been unsteady or slow economies. The argument is that what has driven economic booms in the last 20-30 years have been the the invention of new tools but now the innovations might be an increase in productivity as those new tools are mainstreamed and refined.
Border Wall Billion
Following through on his declaration of the national emergency at the border and stated plan to transfer funds from the Department of Defense to securing the border, Donald Trump has begun moving $1 billion dollars towards completing the construction of a segment of the border wall.
Trump has been roundly criticized both on the right and the left for this move. The American Enterprise Institute continues to argue that this move will hurt military preparedness. However, the move comes as Axios reports on a surge of migrant families at the border.