Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, March 22, 2019
The Weekly Brief - March 22, 2019
ISIS Defeated?
Donald Trump made headlines for claiming that ISIS is finally defeated after the terrorist organization lost its final stronghold in Syria this last week. However, the claim that ISIS is defeated is much contested as the terrorist group continues to stay active and al-Monitor reports they may be reforming in Iraq’s Anbar province.
The continuing presence of ISIS and Al-Qaeda affiliates raises the difficult question of how to get rid of terrorist organizations. Brookings argues for the continuing need for developing compelling counternarratives to dissuade would be radicals.
This point is uniquely underlined by the Taliban’s continued resurgence in Afghanistan this last week.
Christchurch
Terrorism also doesn't just come in the form of international radical Islamic jihadists. It comes in the form of domestic white supremacists too as New Zealand tragically found out last week.
A lone gunman opened fire on two mosques in Christchurch killing 49 and wounding several others before finally being arrested. In the midst of the week of mourning and soul-searching New Zealand's prime minister Jacinda Ardern announced a new gun law that would go into effect in April effectively banning all semi-automatic and military style guns with some carve-outs for farmers.
The move quickly got traction in America’s own gun control debates, especially given its oft cited similarity to the much celebrate Australian gun control regime, which the Strategist helpfully explains.
Eye on Econ
Rarely do I use the same source in all linked stories for a subject, but in the case of looking at the global economy Axios has done a remarkable job over this last week of picking up on different related threads.
Many continue to assume that a recession is going to hit North America and probably the globe in the next year or so and axios reports on surveys indicating CEO optimism is down even as the Fed announced it was leaving interest rates where they were.
Of course, measuring economic performance is always troublesome and Axios further reports that economists are hard at work trying to formulate a better definition of GDP.
“Invisible” Flooding in American Heartland
Happening away from the drama of Washington and presidential races, Middle America is literally being swamped with floodwaters up and down the Great Plains.
The flooding is at historic levels in Nebraska and Iowa leading the federal government to announce emergency aid for those affected regions.
A major cyclone also hit Mozambique this week killing over a thousand. Interestingly enough, neither of these major events have really registered in mainstream media channels.
They would seem tailor-made for narratives about extreme weather, but for their location it would seem that events have largely gone ignored or at least undercovered in many media outlets.
“Hey, Hey, Ho, Ho, the Electoral College Has Got to Go!”
Democratic candidates for president seem to be following Elizabeth Warren's lead to call for the ending of the Electoral College... again.
Both Warren and Beto O'Rourke have come out in favor of getting rid of the institution in favor of some kind of national poll for president. However, as National Review points out, the Electoral College still has some virtue especially in a country becoming increasingly bifurcated between the rural and the urban.
The American Enterprise Institute also notes that a national popular vote leaves much to be desired in its effectiveness and ability to actually represent the entirety of the population.
Maghreb Madness
The last couple of weeks, I have been covering the unfolding drama in Algeria and said last week that there was an uptick in fighting in Libya.
The American Enterprise Institute provides a brief tutorial on the Maghreb, the region in North Africa of which Algeria and Libya are both connected, and experiencing increasing instability which makes it attractive for radical groups like ISIS.
Perhaps that's why America is pledging support for Libya’s weak central government and Algeria is doing everything it can to prevent collapsing into another civil war.
Beto’s First Week
He's been in the race for a week and can say that Beto O'Rourke is already a loser. Well he was actually a loser when he started according to American Enterprise Institute, which offers a unique perspective on the new trend of Democratic candidates whose claim to fame is losing.
It didn't seem to slow down Beto who posted some pretty big fundraising numbers on his first day on the trail. FiveThirtyEight notes that this is not particularly the best indicator of future capabilities.
And, as happens with every new candidate, O’Rourke quickly ran into opposition research as stories floated about his high school social media posts, his troublesome comments about women, and his general body language which Jimmy Fallon roasted on The Tonight Show.
Despite the parodies and controversies, real and imagined, the Federalist argues that Beto can still win the White House and while he seems like a featherweight at the outset he should be a taken seriously as a candidate.
Ebola Breakout
Off and on you've been hearing rumblings in this newsletter of an ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Der Spiegel reports that this outbreak is now the second biggest outbreak in the world and the Council on Foreign Relations reports that as the civil conflict in DRC intensifies, Ebola is running unchecked and has now spread out of the rural areas and into the urban centers making it increasingly difficult to contain and control.
Competing with China
It’s been awhile since we looked at China at the strategic level, most of the drama been sucked up by ongoing trade talks between America and China. Brookings takes a timeout to know where progress with China is most likely to occur and not occur with the United States.
The Strategist looks at the regime security dilemma in US-China relations namely the fact that China's regime is completely focused on its own security making it difficult to negotiate with the United States.
But that hasn't stopped the United States from challenging China on a number of levels one of which has been a quiet arm wrestling in the South China Sea that has largely stayed out of the headlines.
Additionally, Rand reports that Taiwan is slowly and quietly making moves for opening diplomatic distance with China as it competes to get countries to recognize it as an independent entity.
What this underscores is that while China's rise continues and its competition with America can intensify, its future as the preeminent world power is still being contested and is by no means a foregone conclusion.
“New” US-Israeli Status Quo: Contested Relations
The relationship between America and Israel is getting a little interesting. Last week, I reported that Trump had recognized the Golan Heights as being under Israeli control for the first time.
Historically, it has been American policy to not connect the Heights with Israeli sovereignty. And while that move by Trump has become highly criticized, we shouldn't conclude that means that America and Israel are not at odds on other issues.
Israeli-Chinese ties are under close American scrutiny as America has threatened to limit intelligence sharing with Israel similar to its approach to Germany over cooperation with Chinese tech firms.
Such moves, combined with domestic Israeli politics, might actually contribute to the sinking of any peace efforts by Jared Kushner in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
This doesn't mean Israel is on the outs with America or that it's actually not make a contribution to global politics. Counterintuitively, National Review argues that the world is looking more like Israel in many respects.
Elections to Watch
Key elections are happening in hot spots around the world over the next couple of months. In addition to Israel’s election in April, Ukraine is looking at presidential election which will be heavily contested both within Ukraine and from outside by Russia.
In Asia, there are two elections that may stall democratic growth in Thailand and Indonesia. Keep your eyes peeled.