Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, March 15, 2019
The Weekly Brief - March 15, 2019
The New College Try
In a stunning sequel to its exposure of corruption in college sports and recruitment, the FBI announced indictments on “Operation Varsity Blues,” looking at corrupted university admissions.
To say the details were shocking is probably an understatement.
Tens of millions of dollars in bribes and fraud flowing from parents to elite universities to ensure their children's’ spots on the admission roster whether or not it was earned.
It’s against everything Americans believe about equal opportunity. What makes this particular story so grating to many is that several of the families and parents caught up in the scandal happen to be Hollywood celebrities and other well-heeled individuals.
It's another example of elites that don’t want you to think they’re elite until they do something that's really elitist like this.
Algeria Update
Last week, I reported on street protests rocking Algeria. but we haven't gone all in on some Arab Spring scenario though some still think that's a possibility.
The Algerian government under President Bouteflika did withdraw plans for him to run for a fifth consecutive turn and postpone elections, but there's a catch: Bouteflika suggested he might just extend the fourth term.
This has kept protesters in the streets and they are now receiving some strong backing from the past combatants of the 1960s Algerian war of independence. Why is this support significant? It's significant because Algeria sees itself as a revolutionary country in an interesting blend of socialist revolutionary thought and French cultural influence. Revolution is something that is valued in Algeria, so the founding generation encouraging people to stay in the street puts a lot of pressure on the government.
It also raises the specter of more than just protests and the American Enterprise Institute says that while there's some cause for hope we should prepare for the worst outcomes. It's still a really fluid situation.
Backing into Brexit
The other fluid situation this week is Brexit. As the deadline approaches for a hard Brexit no deal is within any reachable sight or at least seems to be. Yet another Brexit bill was brought forward by Theresa May's government in Parliament and was soundly defeated this week.
Where it stands now is that the May government can ask the European Union for an extension of its March deadline or it'll be a hard exit. The
EU doesn't have much have of an incentive to extend the deadline and there are many observers who suggest that this was more or less the plan all along. Given that May and many in the conservative government did not want Brexit in the first place, the possibility of a hard Brexit and the potential chaos it could sow could be all that's required to put a second referendum on the British ballot, which most people assume will see Britons vote against Brexit.
The Battle for Democratic Heights
In the run-up to the Democratic primaries I've been spotlighting the fissures in the Democratic Party and speculating on the future of Party’s electability. However, Politico argues this week that the anticipated civil war within the Democratic Party between the progressives and moderates was over before it started.
And that might seem to be the case as a new Harris poll notes that young Americans are increasingly embracing socialism and this seems to be the trending direction of the Democratic Party. But the Democratic Party is more diverse than just moderates and leftists.
FiveThirtyEight identifies no less than six wings within the Democratic Party, which the eventual nominee will have to cobble together into a coalition. Young people are just one of those wings, and Boomers are still a force to be reckoned with as many of the youth vote focused candidates are going to discover.
Vox also notes that while Democrats generally are united on the principle of opposing critical Trump policies, the alternative policy picture is much more garbled.
Breaking Up Big Tech
One big policy idea put forward this week by a democratic contender for the presidency was Elizabeth Warren's proposal to break up Big Tech.
The proposed trust-busting approach to handling the Big Five technology companies came in for some quick rebuttal from organizations like the American Enterprise Institute, but even typically pro-business conservatives are critical of the size and influence of Big Tech.
It will be hard to see if this is actually a winning policy, though, given that a poll of America's most trustworthy companies found that Google is a company strongly favored by Democrats.
At the end of the day, the Big Five might not need government to break them up at all. Axios reports that after an awful last few weeks top executives at Facebook are headed for the exits.
Betting Against Beto
The Democratic field of challengers received a new edition in failed Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke this week. FiveThirtyEight does what it does with every newcomer and outlines how O’Rourke could win the Democratic nomination.
However, the announcement left a lot of people scratching their heads. After all, O'Rourke's only claim to fame is that he almost beat Ted Cruz.
Somewhat humorously, that fact seems to be best descriptor Vox could come up with in covering O’Rourke’s candidacy.
Budget Busting
A new budget battle is heating up as the Trump Administration presented its new budget to Congress. It's a massive budget with an equally “yuge” deficit. What is getting cut and who's getting the benefits?
In yet another example of bipartisan cooperation, voices on the right and the left quickly pilloried the budget as being inadequate for defense (AEI), detrimental to education (Center for American Progress), and otherwise taking an axe to critical programs (Vox).
Axios reports on another interesting element, though, and that is the announced plan of a host of executive orders that the Trump Administration is preparing to put forward. Given that this plan is being publicized at the same time as the budget proposal, my guess is that this is about more than reelection ramp up, but budget bargaining as well. It’s a strategy made for negotiation.
Huawei or the Highway?
Not going to lie I totally stole the headline from the ladies at the Bombshell podcast. In a new chapter of America's pressure on China via the state-owned technology company Huawei, America threatened Germany with limited intelligence sharing should Germany proceed with plans to use Huawei to help build its 5G Network. Germany had been trying to steer something of a middle course as it negotiates with the Chinese tech giant but America's threat puts new pressure on Germany to reconsider its plans.
Global Hotspots
And now, a rapid fire roundup of some global flash points and hotspots.
Turkey
Turkey's economy has officially entered a recession which can only get worse if America-Turkey relations continue to plummet. That they very well might do if a proposed Russia-Turkey deal goes ahead for Russian missiles.
Israel
In Israel, America recognized the Golan Heights as being under Israeli control for the first time, and a far right party favoring the construction of Third Temple is gaining traction ahead of upcoming elections.
Libya
Libya has plunged once more into round of East-West fighting as the GNA declared a state of emergency.
CAR
The Central African Republic has seen an increase in fighting in it civil conflict and there are calls for outside peacekeepers. It's an open question whether or not America might be contributing to the effort.
Yemen
Amid new rounds of fighting in the Yemeni civil war, the American Senate has voted bipartisanly to cut military aid to Saudi Arabia.
Finishing on a High (Wages) Note
There was some pretty good news on the economic front for the United States this week. American Enterprise Institute reports that wages are on the rise and that the economy is working for some of the lowest wage workers.
In trade talks with China, Axios reports that progress is being made at developing new sets of rules to govern trade between the two economic giants.