Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, March 8, 2019
The Weekly Brief - March 8, 2019
Progressives: 1, Liberals: 0
Last week, I opted not to cover the controversy surrounding Minnesota Representative Ilhan Omar and her alleged anti-Semitism because it seemed like a bunch of partisan wrangling. However, the story took a new turn this week as Omar faced down a resolution condemning her comments.
A resolution of official censure was substituted with a more general resolution condemning all forms of bigotry. National Review reports that the resolution House Democrats brought to condemn her views split the Democratic party between the progressive wing and party leadership. Why does this matter?
The American Conservative notes that the American political parties are going through what it terms as an “unbundling,” an alignment so significant we don’t know the final outcome. That's one interpretation. The Atlantic for its part notes that this new crop of progressive representatives is the left-leaning form of populism that mirrors the Trumpian populism of the right.
Into the storm of competing ideologies for the future of the Democratic Party steps moderate Governor of Colorado John Hickenlooper who declared that he will be joining the presidential field this year.
This is where I find Omar's story fascinating: how it fits into this question about how the Democratic Party is best going to position itself against Trump in the 2020 election. Omar's comments were defended by major presidential candidates like Sanders, Warren and Harris, which suggests that such issues as hate speech, identity politics, and policy towards Israel will be platform issues at the 2020 Democratic Party Convention.
The Reelection of Donald Trump
That question of party position is also taking on renewed salience as Trump's re-election campaign and message starts to take shape. Coming off of a week where the news on the economic front was not all good,
The Atlantic reports that Trump's message is going to be to double down on his message to his base with a few adjustments. However, it might be hard to make America great again when America posts a record trade deficit that Trump had claimed that he would cut. American Enterprise Institute reports that Trump’s support of tariffs is a misread of American history and Axios notes that while Trump's trade wars and tariffs have not done the economy any favors, the stock market doesn't really seem to care all that much.
But one thing that will be unavoidable is that voters do care about the economy, so even though the Democrats are gearing up for a culture war showdown and Trump is more than willing to accommodate them, it still seems that the Carville principle will hold: At this point it’s still about the economy stupid.
A Facebook Facelift?
Another rough week for Facebook as founder Mark Zuckerberg announced renewed efforts at privacy by bringing encryption fully onto the platform in different forms. Facebook's reputation continues to suffer as it was rated near the bottom of the 100 most trustworthy companies in America.
In a shocking and groundbreaking piece of journalism, The Verge reports on Facebook's outsourcing to content moderators who are trained to review and remove offensive material. The report is eye opening in the way it describes the difficulty and trauma of this work.
The bad press just doesn't help Facebook and that's as much an explanation as anything for why it's starting to reconsider its approach to data management.
Algeria: Arab Spring 2.0, 3.0….?
Just in time for the end of winter, new talk emerged in the Middle East and North Africa of another Arab Spring. After Algerian president Bouteflika announced that he would be running for a fifth term last week mass street protests erupted in the North African country.
Bouteflika is sickly and old, and considered well past time to have retired. The Carnegie Endowment reports on the Algerian desire for a future without the military but the specter of the civil war that caused so much death and destruction in 1980s and 90s still hangs over the country.
Algeria is not the only country that is suffering from protests and security concerns in the region. A state of emergency was extended for another month in neighboring Tunisia and Sudan is also rocked by protests this week protesting government corruption and misrule.
Don't hold your breath for another Arab Spring just yet, but you can expect ongoing tremors of unrest in the region.
France’s Macron Muddle
And speaking of tremors of unrest, did you know that the Yellow Vests and France are still a thing? The Strategist reports that the Yellow Vest movement, though shrinking in numbers, has increased in its violence as the movement is starting to win adherents from both the radical right and the radical left who are seeking to exert pressure on embattled French president Emmanuel Macron.
The pressure comes even as European Parliament elections are coming that could see potential for gains by Eurosceptic parties. Axios reports that many see this as a referendum on the Euro and the Eurozone at large.
Certainly, a weakened France and Germany do not help the case for the continued viability of the Eurozone and it's troubled currency.
North Korea: Back in the Saddle Again?
In the week since the breakdown of the Hanoi talks between Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump think tanks were quick to establish lessons to be learned in negotiations with the rogue nation.
However, despite the general frustration or even panic at the failure of these talks, the Strategist suggests that this “failure” is not something to get too worked up about as there’s a long game to consider.
However, the three articles linked above were all written before 38 North announced that it appears as though activity has resumed at Tongchang-ri and Sohae launch and testing sites in North Korea.
Trump and Trudeau: Scandal Partners
And while we're on the topic of embattled leaders we should probably note that the Mueller volcano is set to erupt at any point and speculation is rife on just the size of its findings and the degree to which it'll affect the Trump presidency.
But, in fact, it was not Trump himself that was the most scandal smeared leader in the Western Hemisphere this week. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is on the hot seat for having allegedly exerted borderline illegal and certainly unethical pressure on his attorney general to ease up on prosecuting a large Montreal corporation.
With elections coming up, this puts the political future of Trudeau and the Trudeau vision of Canada in question.
Breakthroughs and Surprises
In a couple of good news stories this week, another patient received stem cell therapy and was able to reverse HIV, another huge step forward in developing treatment for the virus.
American Enterprise Institute reports on the surprising stability of Somaliland, the breakaway northern region of Somalia that has maintained stability and security even as its southern counterpart has been overrun by Al-Shabaab and other warlords and terrorist groups.
And, in a knock against conventional wisdom, even as Democrats and the left were seeking to deny any type of crisis at the border, it was reported that illegal border crossings jumped to a ten-year high last month and border officials are on record saying the situation is untenable.
Another surprise data point this week came from the LA Times who reported that gun ownership in the state has increased…. for criminals.
Foreign Policy Hotspots
Conservatives of both the hawkish and isolationist type were fairly happy this week with the Trump administration's move to put sanctions on Cuba and it's standoffishness with the Kashmir flare up between India and Pakistan. However, that might not necessarily indicate a healthy foreign policy so much as a confused policy, which is not helpful when dealing with competing powers.
Long War Journal reports that Russia is making moves in the Middle East by training Palestinian militia in Syria, and in a replay of the Suez Crisis of 1956, Russia and Egypt have signed off on the development of an industrial zone in the Suez Canal area.