Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, February 22, 2019
The Weekly Brief - February 22, 2019
Trump Dials 911
President Donald Trump took arguably one of the most controversial stands of his entire presidency by declaring a national emergency on the US-Mexico border this last week.
I say “most controversial” because this is one of the few actions Trump has taken that has garnered strong bipartisan blowback. While some conservative commentators wanted to argue that Trump has legal grounds for declaring the border emergency, GOP party leaders like Ben Sasse went public with their criticisms and dark warnings of this expansion of executive power.
The American Conservative labeled this action an abuse of executive power and the editors of the National Review state that Trump is removing critical Constitutional guardrails on the presidency. And conservative American Enterprise Institute also argues that Trump's proposed use of military funds for building the wall is a misuse of such funds.
Progressive opponents across the country, in state houses and in Congress, immediately responded with legal and policy action. California along with several other states immediately sued the Trump administration and Democrats in Congress are taking legislative action to put a stop to Trump's access to the funds he’s attempting to access.
That Donald Trump would go so far as declare a national emergency that would give him extensive powers in getting his wall on the border is an indication of just how big a priority this project is to him. But the short-term gains may be outweighed by long-term dangers posed by such a use of executive power.
Lawfare is very helpful in breaking down the parts of Trump's actions that are fairly benign and those more serious risks to the policy apparatus. Lawfare also provides some helpful context indicating that an short-sighted Congress and a active executive under President Obama created the conditions in which Trump could take things to this stage.
Writing in Politico, former Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano blasts the president for creating one emergency while ignoring others, and former George W. Bush staffer Matt Latimer argues that these emergency decrees will play right into the hands of a future activist Democratic president.
The Return of Berning Man
Just who that Democratic president will be is still one long multiple choice question that got another option added this week as Senator Bernie Sanders announced that he would once again be running for president.
In another moment of bipartisan agreement, media outlets coalesced around two basic observations. First, simply by announcing he would be running for president again Bernie Sanders immediately places himself as the front runner in the Democratic race.
However, while conservative and liberal media outlets can agree that he's now the front-runner, they can also agree on the fact that he is running for a nomination in a very different party. In the three years since he last ran, the Democratic party has moved significantly to the left and adopted some positions that might not wear well for Bernie Sanders.
So while he's the front runner for now, as the field continues to fill up it remains to be seen if Bernie Sanders will be able to stake a claim to a party that is being increasingly shaped by an ideology that may be unfamiliar to him.
Of course that ideology may not hold quite the sway it may seem to hold as the crucial test case of Virginia Democratic leaders indicates that the more progressive activist wing of the party is willing to accept ideologically unacceptable leaders to maintain political control.
So the question remains, will it be his opponents who “feel the Bern,” or Sanders himself in 2020?
Testing European Ties in Munich
The Munich Security Conference was held this week and generally speaking, it seems to have underlined the distance between the US and key allies. Brookings notes that the rift between America and its European allies opened during the Trump years continues and both side are struggling with substantial political weaknesses.
One of those weaknesses is the increasingly challenged chancellorship of Germany’s Angela Merkel. As her own fortunes yo-yo in German politics, the tensions that are always just below the surface in German-French relations appear to be resurfacing despite the best efforts of both countries to maintain close cooperation.
China Trade War Update
And that weakness between American and her European allies does not bode well for either party’s bargaining power vis a vis China. US trade talks in Beijing this last week concluded and it seems that the trade war is not over, but it isn't quite on either as talks continued this week in DC. In other words we're in a really uncomfortable status quo.
It’s a status quo that is increasingly starting to bite both China and America. Axios reports that America's emerging energy exports sector could be harmed by an ongoing trade wars, while Rand Corp. reports on security gaps in China's Belt and Road. A shrinking export market for American energy and a fragile Belt and Road do not bode well for either country’s economy if the trade war is allowed to continue.
Signs of the Times?
And talk of a recession in the American economy is in the air. Axios reports that economic data on key indicators continues to show signs of weakness.
Hoover fellow Shahid Mehmood writes in the Friday Times that there is concern that the world economy is at risk of a substantive slow down.
Israeli Elections: An Opposition Out of Left Field
It’s good to keep track of elections cuz you never know who's going to be in office at any given point. One of the major elections for an American ally coming up this April is the Israeli elections.
Despite massive legal and political troubles, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to be something of a frontrunner in the Israeli elections, but that seems to have been placed in serious doubt as the final party coalitions form ahead of the election.
The two major opposition parties in the Israeli Knesset have joined forces to form a hybrid party to oppose Netanyahu. This is perhaps one of the most serious threats to his administration and comes in spite of Netanyahu's efforts on the international front to improve Israeli standing with Arab countries and balance diplomatic relations with Israeli electoral politics.