Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, January 18, 2019

The Weekly Brief - January 18, 2019

Wake Me When the Shutdown is Over

Now almost a month old, the US government shutdown has entered the realm of soap opera drama, which means it's now boring. Daily Kos reports that House Speaker Pelosi is “destroying” Trump, but Trump seems to be up to the game as he canceled trips for Pelosi and other Democratic members of Congress that would have used the military as their form of transport.

This was triggered by Pelosi suggesting that the State of the Union be postponed or canceled. I share this because this is why this newsletter works to share new stories that do not just come from US news sources. Coverage of such juvenile politics is more or less what’s dominating the American media.

However, there's actually some really interesting ideas that are being knocked around as a way of getting through the impasse. Brookings suggest a potential compromise deal that could end the shutdown and get both Democrats and Republicans something they want. Politico publishes a column from Governor Gary Herbert of Utah suggesting a truly novel idea (these days): give more power to the states so we don't get so reliant on a government that shuts down.

The American Economy: Bullish Until Its Not

We should be looking beyond just the drama of the shutdown to things like, you know, whether or not it will actually cause a recession in the American economy. If it does, that's a really good argument to support Governor Herbert’s suggestion. Brookings outlines the areas of threat for the American economy as a result of the shutdown, and the American Enterprise Institute offers a more comprehensive report on the state of the American economy that goes beyond just shut down effects.

ISIS: Even Death Throes Hurt

American news coverage is so wall-to-wall shutdown and Mueller investigation that some really important international stories are dropping out. For example, National Review reports that the US began withdrawing troops from Syria.

Almost predictably, to ensure that America be seen to be retreating, ISIS carried out its deadliest attack on American troops in Syria this week. Additionally, Long War Journal reports that there's been an ISIS offensive in West Africa in addition to an uptick in violence by other jihadist groups in Syria.

While this doesn’t mean ISIS is resurgent per se, it does underscore continuing global threats that America needs to keep its eye on even as it recalibrates its defense posture.

Data and Repression

One of those other important developing news pieces is the ongoing challenge of how to handle the Internet in an era of deep fakes and interference in elections.

Pew Research does some excellent work on exploring Facebook's algorithms and use of personal data. Spoiler alert: most people don’t like how Facebook uses their information.

Axios presents a very interesting story on the development of online myths and source verification problems caused with story features from apps like Snapchat and Instagram.

Around the world, regulation of social media is quickly becoming a tool for opposition suppression and control of populations. This week, Carnegie Endowment raises a warning sign on artificial intelligence is used by authoritarian governments for repression. This is one of the most significant background trends that should be paid attention to in the coming years.

Foresight is 2020?

Like the shutdown, the rapidly escalating number of announcements for who's running for the honor of tangling with President Trump in the 2020 presidential election is bound to get boring fast. That being said, it was a pretty active week in terms of who is declaring to run for the Democratic nomination in the coming election.

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand announced as did Julian Castro and Hawaiian Representative Tulsi Gabbard. At this very early stage there are already five declared democratic candidates and two possible declarations with a whole bevy of others who may be considering runs.

FiveThirtyEight outlines several different paths to winning coalitions for no less than 17 different presidential contenders. Axios provides one of the most comprehensive charts on who's in, who's out, and who might be considering a run not just for the Democrats but also for the Republicans.

Brexit Breakdown

And an amazing story, that got almost no press in the United States, is the up-and-down fortunes of UK Prime Minister Theresa May in the Brexit votes this week.

No sooner did the Prime Minister lose a critical Parliament vote on a Brexit deal that she turned right around and survived a vote of no-confidence in Parliament, which is almost unheard of. For a Prime Minister to fail on such a critical policy piece and retain their position is remarkable, and either speaks to May’s staying power or the incredible weakness of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party.

It is a fascinating dynamic in Britain and now European leaders must prepare for a “hard Brexit,” the long feared cutting of the cord without negotiation whose outcome the Carnegie Endowment suggests would precipitate a geopolitical crisis. Hoover fellow Timothy Ash, writing in the Guardian, argues that a second referendum may be necessary to at least restart the conversation or to ensure that the British people are ready to accept a hard Brexit because the facts on the ground have substantially changed since the first vote.

Ocasio-Cortez and the Changing Landscape of Representation

She's young, she’s energetic, and she's good at the Twitter's. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is becoming a media company unto herself with the amount of coverage she gets in a given week. Daily Kos, not surprisingly, makes the argument that she is the future of the Democratic Party, but it is pretty quickly rebutted by the Manhattan Institute.

Advocates of Ocasio-Cortez point to her dominant use of social media as what gives her a bully pulpit and voice of leadership at such an early stage in her political career. However, National Review notes that her Democratic colleagues are still a little perplexed by her lack of knowledge on the inner workings of Congress and policy-making.

Politico runs a very detailed story on the potential pitfall of throwing so much of her early formed political capital behind the so-called Green New Deal which could become an albatross later on if recent history is anything to go off of.