Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, January 11, 2019

The Weekly Brief - January 11, 2019

The New Year, New Dems

The generational torch is in the process of being passed in the Democratic party as the Dems take control of the house. The Old Guard, led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, finds itself confronting a young crop of newcomers much like the Republicans did in 2011 with the Tea Party.

This Progressive caucus is led by three newcomers that are generating by far the most media attention: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar. Jonathan Tobin, writing for the National Review, notes that these three individuals are likely to be the face of the the new Democrats who may very well push the party further to the left.

In the American Conservative, Pat Buchanan notes that the Old Guard Democratic party is unlikely to be prepared for what he terms is the “balkanization of the Democratic Party.”

However, for all the media attention that the newcomers are receiving, like 60 Minutes interviews or scene-stealing, profanity-laced rhetoric, the Old Guard still has firm control of the party. The Atlantic reports that in the early going of the new Congress Pelosi’s control of the party seems fairly strong, effectively quashing early challenges from the upstarts.

Where the divide will really be noticeable is in the Democratic primaries ahead of the 2020 election. Nate Silver breaks down what he sees as being the five key constituencies of the Democratic primary.

“We’re Fine… We’re All Fine. Here. Now. Thank You.”

So the government has been shut down for the last couple of weeks and so far we're still breathing and there's no major problems. That hasn't stopped many from calculating the cost of the shutdown, which are real though perhaps not systemically threatening.

The Center for American Progress notes the economic impact on states and on how much is missed in federal worker pay checks ($2 billion every two weeks).

In what seems like bad press for any president, FiveThirtytEight reports that the public’s initial blame for the shutdown seems to be shifting away from Trump and towards the Democrats. So while Democrats might think they have Trump on the ropes, it may actually be the other way around.

Politics and economics aside, one of the interesting things that gets lost in the shuffle of a government shutdown is data. Pew Research notes that a lot of statistical reporting done by government agencies gets left behind as a result of shutdowns, which can be a real problem for transparency and accountability.

An Emergency by Any Other Name

And why the shutdown? Well in case you've been living under a rock (which you shouldn't be if you're a reader of this newsletter) apparently it's because there are spending bills in Congress to fund the government that don't include funding for President Trump's border wall.

President Trump is standing by his demand that funding be made available and is keeping the government closed until then by refusing to sign any bill that doesn’t include funding.

President Trump went directly to the public this week with a speech explaining why he sees border security as so important.

One of the immediate questions surrounding this speech is Trump's use of the term “national emergency” and whether or not he has the authority to build the wall by declaring a national emergency at the border.

David French, writing in the National Review, insists that the President has no such authority. However, Lawfare (no friend of the Trump administration) breaks down the actual legal elements connected to this idea of declaring a national emergency and the authority the president has. They find that Trump actually might have a path forward to build such a wall.

On the Progressive side of the media spectrum, Mark Sumner, writing in Daily Kos (making its Weekly Brief premier) notes that the key here is whether or not there's an actual crisis on the border of course. Daily Kos correctly recognizes that if there's no real emergency at the border, then it’s more of a political emergency we’re talking about.

Rhetoric and definitions aside, the fact remains that immigration is a major policy problem area for the US. The Center for American Progress seeks to bring focus and clarity to those immigration priorities for the coming Congress.

Air Quotes Democracy

The Council on Foreign Relations share several posts this week on conflicts to watch in 2019. One of those conflicts is Venezuela which just had its “election” yesterday. The “result” wasn't a surprise: Ruling president Nicolas Maduro easily “won” in a “landslide” that no outside observer took seriously.

However, such obvious abuse of the democratic process in the midst of a humanitarian crisis may very well drive the Venezuelan opposition to further efforts especially as they find a new crop of young leaders.

Another Latin American country to pay attention to, according to American Representative Norma Torres, is Guatemala which is undergoing its own internal conflicts connected to corrupt government.

No surprise, the Council on Foreign Relations also lists several Middle Eastern countries as conflicts to watch 2019. With it being an open question as to whether or not America will withdraw significant numbers of troops from Afghanistan, that country may be entering a new phase in its conflict.

Yemen, too, may be looking at significant developments amidst ongoing debate over continued American support for Saudi Arabia and its military..

Lies, Damnable Lies and Statistics

This week, China and the US are back at the table to discuss ending the ongoing trade war. Early indicators suggest that America is winning some concessions from the Chinese, but a final deal remains to be achieved.

The really interesting thing will be to asses who is in a better negotiating position. Recent economic projections by economists indicate a further cooling of the Chinese economy, even as Chinese officials insist the economy will meet its 2018 growth targets.

That economic slowdown in China, coupled with anything that may be perceived as a loss in the trade war could contribute to additional political pressures on Chinese Premier Xi Jinping. Take that with a grain of salt, though, as you can probably find some hot take on Xi’s decline every few weeks. The CCP remains in firm control in China by all appearances.

Syria to Rejoin International Organizations

America's been mostly caught up in the debate over whether American troops will stay in Syria or come home based on President Trump's vacillating approach to the conflict, but the more significant Syria news did not emerge from the United States this week.

The key news is the coalescing of Arab countries around the acceptance, or rather readmittance, of Bashar al-Assad and his government into polite society. The North Africa Post reports that Egypt has come alongside its old ally, asking Tunisia to allow President Assad to appear at the Arab League Summit that will be meeting in March.

And at the UN, the Syrian ambassador has officially taken his post as a representative of Bashar al-Assad's government, and is the recognized representative for Syria.

Both are significant diplomatic moves indicating that Bashar al-Assad is once again the legitimate leader of Syria. This signifies that the war, even as it carries on, is all but over in terms of regime change.