Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, January 5, 2019

The Weekly Brief - January 5, 2019

2018 Recap: It Wasn’t All Bad

It’s a new year with a lot of trends and stories to track, but I would be remiss if I did not set the stage a little bit with a brief recap of some key stories of 2018 that will undoubtedly play a role in the coming year.

Pew Research compiles a great list of key findings in several of their studies over the course of the last year. Look to start hearing some of this information make its way into policy talking points and public discourse.

Walter Russell Mead at the Hudson Institute writes a sober quasi-obituary for the liberal international order that most observers acknowledge took a beating in 2018.

More optimistically, 2018 was a big year for the US economy (despite volatile markets at the end of the year). Conservative curmudgeon Victor Davis Hanson struck a surprisingly cheerful note in listing the successes of the American economy, but most encouragingly, AEI argues that Americans are starting to reenter and adapt to the new labor market. That’s an important trend to keep track of if it continues.

Looking at 2019: It Seems Mostly Bad

Despite some successes in 2018, deep concern remains regarding the coming year given America’s political dysfunction and the aforementioned weakened liberal international order (henceforth, LIO). New York Times columnist David Brooks dubs 2019 the “year of the wolves” and the Council on Foreign Relations is similarly reserved to pessimistic about ongoing international challenges.

While many will be watching the fireworks between President Trump and the newly minted Democrat-controlled House, AEI points out that the Supreme Court docket could be shaping up for a very substantive and busy year as well.

New Year, New Congress

Speaking of that new Democrat-controlled House, the new Congress was sworn in this week with Nancy Pelosi reclaiming the Speaker’s gavel. Now what?

The Brookings Institution provides several excellent overviews on issues facing the new Congress ranging from investigations to tax and fiscal policy to revitalizing “left behind places.”

It’ll be a busy year to be sure and not without large amounts of partisan wrangling (though Brookings cautions against pursuing impeachment). However, there are notable areas of bipartisan agreement including housing reform and an emerging consensus on China (more on that later).

2020: Yeah, We’re Going There

Is it too soon? Tell that to the Democrats who have already publicly declared they’re running for president in 2020: Jay Inslee and Elizabeth Warren.

Warren is well known and therefore an early front runner. FiveThirtyEight runs the initial math on her path to the nomination.

Less well known is Jay Inslee, the governor of Washington. The Atlantic provides an early profile piece.

World Reorder?

So, there’s the US and China, and every once in a while Russia plays a round, but the familiarity of the cast of characters in the emerging international drama should not blind us to its newness. This isn’t the 1990s. Heck, it’s not even the 2000s.

How America should approach this new world of challenges in a context in which many feel it’s reputation has slipped will be a hot topic of conversation this year and heading into 2020. War on the Rocks kicks it off with a series of essays discussing the shape of the “world reorder.”