Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, November 30, 2018
The Weekly Brief - November 30, 2018
Pew Research released a new study this week finding that Americans are more partisan on foreign policy than they have been for a long time. This conflicts with the traditional “Washington consensus” of politics stopping at the water's edge but it's also a good reason to make foreign policy and international relations the focus of this week's newsletter.
Will China’s navy rock the boat?
Concern remains that America’s naval dominance in Asia will soon be a thing of the past as China continues to boost its own naval capacity. Asia Times reports on efforts by the Chinese to build up to seven aircraft carriers in the next decade, and estimates that China may overtake the US in naval capacity in less than 20 years.
Capacity is certainly a reason for concern, as power transition theory (a major international relations theory) predicts increased probabilities of war as power gaps close between countries. However, while capacity increases the probability of war, ability may be the key factor in success and RAND Corp. argues that the PLA has precious little of said ability.
What up G...20?
All eyes are on President Trump and Xi Jinping at the G20 Summit in Buenos Aires this week. The ongoing trade war between the world's heavyweight powers is a front burner issue at a meeting designed to facilitate more open conomic interaction.
Even if America and China are able to mend the fences and end the trade war, concerns still exist over the potential for future military conflict. One thing that is clear in studies done on international war is that economic ties don't necessarily bind. Reaching an agreement on trade is just one facet of managing a change in the global power structure.
Playing second fiddle to US-China talks is a Russia looking to capitalize on its favorable Helsinki meeting earlier this year. That, however, will not be happening after Russia’s latest moves in the Black Sea.
How do you solve a problem like Vladimir?
The simmering Russia-Ukraine conflict flared anew this last week after Russia attacked Ukrainian naval vessels in the Black Sea.
As with every other time Russia has made militarily aggressive moves, speculation is rampant in the US over what motivates Russia. The most common thought is that nationalist military endeavors against a hostile West is how Putin inexplicably maintains popularity with the home crowd. However, this doesn’t really account for Russian politics and strategic concerns.
The whys and wherefores notwithstanding, the US was quick to condemn the move via a strong statement from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and cancelling a meeting with Putin at the aforementioned G-20 summit. Such a diplomatic 1-2 punch is easily the Trump administration’s strongest public rebuke of Russia to date.
Climate change: It’s not just the planet overheating
Climate change is one of the foreign policy issues the Pew survey above cites as having deep partisan disagreement in the US. So we shouldn’t be surprised that with the release of a new government report on climate change, the partisan grist started to grind.
Going off of Trump’s apparent denial of climate change, liberal commentators were quick to question the president’s grasp on reality while conservative news outlets were equally quick to attack the climate report on grounds of “fear mongering,” or politically biased.
The debate raises an interesting question taken up by the FiveThirtyEight crew in their weekly chat: “How much does climate change matter in a world run by politics?”
I disagree that the world is run by politics, but thinking about the degree to which climate change can truly be affected by collective political action is probably a good place to start grounding oneself in reality.
Following up on Yemen
We touched on Yemen a couple weeks ago, noting that the ongoing civil war is far from any resolution. However, there may be some movement on the American role in the conflict. While the Trump administration pulls its advocacy for a cease fire, the Senate has moved a bill to end support for Saudi Arabia in Yemen to the floor for debate with strong bipartisan support.
Trump may face one of the first veto overrides of his administration, which could spell a significant shift in Saudi-American relations.
Macron’s France: The bloom comes off the rose
Increased fuel taxes in France have led to a series of protests that turned violent this last week. From a liberal perspective, the protests were an unfortunate, but perhaps necessary consequence of adjusting to policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions.
From a conservative perspective, that’s small comfort for Emmanuel Macron who may have just thrown away his presidency. His chief opposition, Marie Le Pen’s National Front stands to gain tremendously from this tax blowback, as well as from the Macron administration’s move to introduce Arabic lessons into the public school curriculum.