Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, November 16, 2018
The Weekly Brief - November 16, 2018
The Once and Future Wave
First it was a wave, then a tsunami, then back to the wave before apparently receding to a ripple. Then the absentee ballots arrived and it was a wave again… at least in the House.
The roller coaster run up to the midterm elections has been even more of a roller coaster as Democrats continue to make gains in several House races due to recounts or late counting of absentee ballots.
Several analysts are now saying that, at least in terms of the House, Democratic gains do comprise a wave. While it might not be the wave many anticipated, it's enough of a wave to produce more of a stinging rebuke to the Trump agenda.
However David Graham at The Atlantic argues that this is not necessarily a guarantee of Democratic success in 2020. However, AEI notes that getting hammered in a boom economy like the Republicans just did certainly doesn't bode well.
Democrats in the House
Now firmly in control of the House, Democrats must now turn their attention to actually governing. It's been two years and something of a wilderness experience for Democrats mostly characterized by desperate attempts to resist the Trump administration’s agenda, but with few victories.
Now with a degree of control over one of the branches of government, Democrats stand to be a more active opposition. Herein lies the challenge: Just how will the Democrats define themselves as an active opposition?
With a young cohort of progressive newcomers representing a demonstrable shift to the left for Democrats, and with a stated interest in investigating, if not impeaching, Trump, the Democrats face the temptation to continue their rhetoric and advocacy of resistance without a real emphasis on governance. They also have to share governance at the legislative level with a Republican-controlled Senate.
That’s not to say that the Democrats are not up to the task, especially with a lot of their returning veterans. However, Politico notes in an excellent profile piece on new California governor Gavin Newsom, young, energetic Democratic leaders now have to demonstrate that they are not out of their depth.
Yemen Update
One of the major foreign policy issues that the Democrats are widely anticipated to contest is ongoing American support for Saudi Arabia as the kingdom presses its war in Yemen.
Though the Saudi royal family is working hard to build up domestic support for its policies in Yemen, the international pressure on Riyadh continues to grow as Yemen spirals towards famine.
The human suffering is tremendous and delays in the United Nations at starting any kind of peace talks make it seem like there's no end in sight.
Additionally, what little leverage America might have had over Saudi behavior in Yemen via military aid seems to be diminishing as the Saudi coalition recently canceled a deal with the United States for refueling jet fighters.
Back to the Brexit
It's been pretty quiet on the Brexit front for most of the year, but the rubbers may be about to meet the road.
Not a whole lot of details have been analyzed yet, but it looks as though a final Brexit deal is gaining momentum in the British cabinet.
Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit plan has generated plenty of criticism, but according to Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn there's no stopping this one.
France: Military Power... But, Seriously Folks...
Last week marked the 100th anniversary of the end of World War 1. The by now ironically-named War to End All Wars still leaves us with lessons to learn as its after effects of shaped our modern world more indelibly than any other conflict.
In Europe to attend Armistice Day celebrations, Donald Trump created no small kerfuffle over not attending a rain-soaked memorial service. However, it was French president Emmanuel Macron who stole headlines with his announcement that Europe needed its own army to defend itself, even from great powers like….. America?
Maybe he was just being and equal opportunity threat assessor, maybe he was just trying to outdo Donald Trump on the outrageous game. Regardless, Macron’s call for a European army is actually more or less what Donald Trump has been calling for since demanding Europe foot more of its own defense bill.
Peace in Afghanistan?
After multiple failed starts, another conference is underway with the Taliban to see if a final peace can be negotiated for Afghanistan. The interesting thing is that this one is now being convened in Moscow, and is being attended by all the major powers including the United States and India.
Long War Journal reports, or rather implies, that we probably shouldn't be deceived by the Taliban’s willingness to negotiate as some liberalized approach. It still very much considers itself to be a fundamentalist, even radically so, “Islamic Emirate.”
Another interesting aspect of this conference is the possibility of India asserting itself on the geopolitical stage.