Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, October 26, 2018
The Weekly Brief - October 26, 2018
Immigration is Back
Immigration is back on the table as a major policy discussion piece in time for the last push to the midterms. The story animating the discussion is the several thousand-strong column slowing moving its way towards the US from Central America. The story is dramatic and creates really compelling images, but may be having the unintended consequence of obscuring the dynamics that are driving the formation of such an event.
A key dynamic is the reduction of US aid to countries these immigrants are fleeing from, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.
The politicization of a human rights concern by partisans in America gearing up for midterms also contributes to a lack of understanding the effects of overlapping and interlocking policies.
The Halloween Election: Trick or Treat?
At this point, no one should be surprised by the absolute madness surrounding the upcoming midterm elections. What began as an ugly war of words between the president and his opposition, escalated into a national embarrassment in the Kavanaugh hearings, and seems to have spun into the very dangerous territory of domestic terrorism with several suspected mail bomb being sent to leading Democrats.
And that’s just the theatrics. It doesn’t even take into account some real platform-altering policy swings the parties are going through.
Given the context, there’s reason to feel discouraged and pessimistic, especially if you’re a Democrat whose hopes of an overwhelming “blue wave” seem to have diminished in recent weeks.
Still, there’s important work being done on American elections and boosting participation. Brookings reports on a new study on the relationship of family income and voting behavior.
Emitting Politics
Income isn’t the only predictive variable commonly used in the social sciences. Comparative studies frequently use population for its per capita measuring ability. Our World in Data uses this measure to calculate the global distribution of CO2 emissions.
This is particularly useful data to help frame the latest IPCC report on global climate change. The news cycle noticeably cooled on reporting the discussion around that report after its release, which I was bummed about because I was hoping someone could explain the data gathering and methods of analysis used in the report.
Fortunately, AEI and the Hoover Institute weigh in with some interesting critiques of the report. Hoover Institute points out some problems with determining causality of environmental challenges, and AEI notes that the IPCC report seems more interested in fitting the data to the UN’s Sustainability Goals than in consistent data analysis.
Another One Bites the Dust…
Lost in the shuffle of caravans and halls of consulates, it was easy to miss a significant development in Russia-US relations this week as President Trump signaled America’s withdrawal from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty.
The announcement set off alarm bells and the by now predictable dire warnings of nuclear rearmament run amuck. Lawfare stands in with a more measured, and realistic, analysis of what this latest withdrawal means in the real world of policy adoption and implementation.
Predicting China
China’s rising profile in the world makes it the ongoing subject of attention in the world of international politics. The main question being, “Is China truly a global power and can it expected to remain so?”
The traditional way of answering this question is to consider the geopolitical landscape, but that record is mixed: Brookings notes the increasingly strong ties between Russia and China, but Asia Times reports that China may be looking to join the Trans Pacific Partnership, which would signal flagging economic confidence.
AEI seeks a somewhat novel approach to predicting Chinese behavior by using machine learning to model potential outcomes, but RAND Corp. cautions against over relying on AI as a predictive tool given the propensity to build bias into its design.
Yet another crystal ball, observers try to use with China is its demographic trends, something that speaks to both opportunity and challenge.
At the end of the day few American observers seem to think China’s rise is stable or will be lasting, but that shouldn’t necessarily be comforting as disappointed ambitions could turn to dangerous adventurism or self-destruction.