Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, October 19, 2018
The Weekly Brief - October 19, 2018
“Gimme That ‘Old Time’ Politics”
To what degree does religion actually affect politics and political outcome? It's easy to say religion is merely part of culture and lump it into some broad undefined milieu, and the secular-minded are fond of blaming every social and political conflict on religion. However, beyond the tropes surrounding religion in the public square, there's actually very little done in the field of political science to measure religious influence on political society
That's mostly because it's hard to know when religion is a cause or an effect of a political event as Paul Marshall of the Hudson Institute points out. Still, religion may very well be making a comeback into the public consciousness as a variable in political decision-making, especially in the realm of international relations.
The Strategist looks at how growing piety in other countries may pose a challenge for diplomacy in more secular Australia. It’s a concern I've had as well and have written about.
Looking at the role of religion on the domestic scene, Emma Green at the Atlantic considers how for American secularists in the Democratic Party politics and activism may be the newest form of religion.
The Trump Effect
The seriousness with which people, particularly those on the left, are taking politics and activism might actually explain why there has been a reported “Trump effect” in the world of mental health. Politico reports that psychologists are indicating that the current American political context is increasingly a source of psychological stress for many Americans.
An apparent “Trump effect” extends to the world as well. The Strategist considers how to model or account for such an effect in the decision-making of other nations.
In Search of Jamal Khashoggi
The unfolding drama surrounding the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi last week seems to have taken on a life of its own. After a less than convincing explanation from Saudi Arabia, President Trump finds himself contemplating tough anti-Saudi measures he never anticipated early in his administration.
Whether or not Trump ultimately takes any kind of action may be beside the point as Congress appears to be in its own rush to punish the Saudi kingdom this latest MBS disaster. Attention turns to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and his ongoing efforts to both modernize Saudi Arabia while also maintaining the House of Saud’s hold on power.
The Khashoggi case seems to be a point of collision between these twin drives, which, while they may or may not spell the end of MBS, certainly taint his generally positive image in the US.
The still developing story leaves many questions unanswered, but the conversation seems to have moved well past the disappearance of Khashoggi himself and towards a presumption of guilt on the part of the Saudi government, despite the less than trustworthy nature of Turkish media and law enforcement.
Regimes Weaken
The travails of MBS in Saudi Arabia seemed to parallel a week of political upheaval on apparently every continent. Significant countries the world over are facing challenges that could spell a fresh round of civil conflict in the near future in the Middle East and beyond.
In North Africa, ruling elites are addressing serious charges of corruption and violence. In Tunisia, the ruling Ennahda party is attempting to address accusations of political assassination, while in Algeria the military government has arrested five generals on charges of corruption. In both cases, regime collapse is unlikely, but it’s rare that such moves are undertaken by regimes firmly in control. It certainly points to diminishing legitimacy for both regimes.
Also, in North Africa, Al-Monitor reports on the possible presence of a new destabilizing element in almost-failed-state Libya: Russian troops.
In Germany, Angela Merkel’s center-right coalition is suffering losses in local elections, which may force a reckoning with the far right Alternative for Deutschland in the near future.
Moving to South America, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace becomes one of the first think tanks I’ve observed to refer to Venezuela as a failed state. This suggests the one-time wealthy country is farther along the road of national destruction than previously thought.
Finally, presidential elections in Africa’s most populous and productive country, Nigeria, almost always create concerns over sectarian clashes. We’ll see how that develops in the next few weeks.
What all of these stories have in common is the apparent fluidity in the international system at the given moment. It’s a fluidity that many would argue is due to the relative decline of American power, global economic trends, or a number of many other variables. Regardless of ultimate causes, we should all be able to agree on the fact that philosophies of policy and governance are ideas that have far reaching consequences.
Making the Other Guy Blink
I’ll admit, there are times I feel repetitive covering the China-America trade war, but short of a shooting war, this may very well shape up to be the conflict of our time. Whether it’s Cold War 2 or World War III doesn’t really matter… yet.
What matters is that China is now a global power and wants to shape international norms different from those developed by America and Europe. This trade war is the opening salvo of that power and policy conflict and requires ongoing attention and strategic assessment.
The more bullish view on the trade war as it stands currently is that America still has plenty of ways to hit China, and that Trump has more or less got President Xi where he wants him.
However, this view doesn’t entirely take into account that America has its own economic stresses and the trade imbalance Trump is purportedly solving via trade war isn’t closing. The bullish view also doesn’t seem to grapple very well with what a desperate Xi is willing to do to maintain China’s pace to global power.
Interpreting the US Economy
The polarized American polity poses something of a concern for the decidedly apolitical American economy. Last week’s Weekly Brief spotlighted Pew Research findings on the starkly partisan views Americans take on the economy.
This is a problem because there are big economic trends that don’t care who you vote for. Rising interest rates not only place a burden on first time home buyers, but also on public budgets, which means that both the middle and lower classes don’t fare very well.
Additionally, the rapid adoption of AI into the workplace stands to also exercise a downward force on the economy (at least in the short term).
At this point, it’s easy to blame the 1% as Bernie Sanders is fond of doing, but Brookings provides a more constructive perspective: Looking beyond the horizon to develop economic agendas targeted at improving the labor prospects of those least stable groups in the American economy.