Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, October 5, 2018

The Weekly Brief - October 5, 2018

Interpreting the “Kavanaugh Effect”

The Weekly Brief rarely reports on breaking news, but with a Senate test vote bouncing Kavanaugh’s way this morning, I find that nicely framing the stories I’m about to share.

The breathless reporting over the last week ahead of these votes shed little new light on the charges against Kavanaugh, which led many to conclude that the GOP would push through a vote.

That didn’t stop many from warning of a serious ripple effect if Kavanaugh gets confirmed, but FiveThirtyEight argues that concerns of a SCOTUS “legitimacy crisis” are overblown given recent history of court appointees and decisions.

The midterms approach..

The one thing that everybody does seem to agree on, however, is that the Kavanaugh hearings have dramatically shifted the landscape on next month’s midterm elections. Though most polls still favor Democrats regaining control of the House, NPR reported this week that the vaunted “enthusiasm edge” Democrats were supposed to have among voters is all but gone, and AEI reports that losing the House may not even be a foregone conclusion anymore for the GOP.

Perhaps anticipating a confirmation and possible negative ramifications in November, finger pointing seems to have already begun regarding how Senate Democrats have handled the whole situation and how #MeToo may be collapsing in on itself.

Politico, and others, have also noted that (surprisingly to many) the response of female voters to the Kavanaugh hearings have broken down along party, not gender lines. In other words, conservative women have not been swayed, which means, at least among female voters, little advantage seems to have redounded to the Democrats.

Gaza update

I like to bring multiple sources to bear on any one story that I discuss in this newsletter, but unfortunately, the serious situation in the Gaza Strip is going underreported in Western media outlets. To give you a picture of the situation, I use multiple stories from Al-Monitor in the last week.

It needs to be understood that Hamas (who rules Gaza) continues to be at loggerheads with Mahmoud Abbas as the rest of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.

This political impasse has been around for awhile, but after a combative UNGA speech last week by Abbas, it now seems that Hamas will be contemplating a future alone and one the outside of PA-Israel relations.

With reductions in UN aid flowing into Gaza, Hamas is finding it increasingly difficult to supply basic services, which is starting to undermine its rule as desperate Gazans have begun to protest Hamas and its policies.

It’s becoming an increasingly untenable, and unstable position, so look for it to possibly become more prevalent in the news cycle if nothing changes.

NAFTA 2.0

Donald Trump appears to have scored another win on the foreign policy and trade front this last week by inking a “NAFTA 2.0” deal with Mexico and Canada.

The deal still needs to be approved by a fractious Congress, but it is likely to do so given its modest boost given to the American auto industry (can’t imagine Rust Belt Democrats voting against this).

Response to the deal ranged from critical to cautious optimism as think tanks weighed in on the main points of the deal and the apparent departure from Trump’s more protectionist approach to trade.

Brookings takes a slightly more critical approach, but even then its muted.

The biggest takeaway seems to be a collective sigh of relief. One trade war is enough, apparently.

Social media: Academia catches up with Main Street

Small news story with a big implications: The use of social media in the US seems to be plateauing, which raises all sorts of interesting questions regarding the ongoing social and political role of social media platforms.

A new report at Brookings suggests what many users already feel, and that is that social media does not appear to build enriching, self-sustaining communities, which may in part explain the leveling off in terms of use.

Despite the subtle shift, social media remains a major tool that is not lost on governments. War on the Rocks reviews a new book exploring how social media can be leveraged in international conflict.