DE-Nuking North Korea
The Weekly Brief - September 21, 2018
DE-Nuking North Korea
Despite all the speculation surrounding American-North Korean animosity, another round of diplomatic talks between President Moon of South Korea and President Kim of North Korea it seems North Korea is taking the denuclearization path more seriously.
Additionally, sources noted that North Korea held a military parade without any ballistic missiles being displayed ahead of those talks. So this diplomatic breakthrough, unlike the talks with the US in the summer, seems to have some substance to it. 38 North also reports that North Korea has begun dismantling a missile site.
These are some pretty concrete steps that seem to enhance the prospects of peace. With Kim looking to hold another summit with Trump, we'll see where these most recent moves take the conversation.
Trump diplomacy
The second summit with North Korea would probably be just the ticket for a Trump administration mired in domestic scandals and politics. AEI reports that Trump is probably experiencing his most consistent level of success on the foreign policy front, trade wars accepted, so more diplomatic achievements wouldn’t be a bad thing ahead of midterms.
One of those areas is the ever-present Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Trump administration had floated the idea of a possible Israel-Palestine confederation but Carnegie Endowment for International Peace believes that ending a two-state solution and imposing an alternative will not help end the conflict.
And this comes at a time when the eastern Mediterranean continues to experience instability and as China seeks to make room for itself in that region.
Despite all the great power moves in the region, Israel and Palestine continue their delicate coexistence, however tenuously.
Anticipating recession
I was surprised to see a raft of articles on the economy that all had one thing in common this week: The anticipating and preparing for the next recession. Many observers are anticipating a coming recession within the next two years. You read that right. Just in time for the next election, something the last recession/recovery may speak to.
Kidding aside, historian Niall Ferguson, writing for the Boston Globe, notes that any new recession will probably come from somewhere other than sectors blamed for the 2008 crash. Potential proof of this, Business Insider reports that a spike in treasury yields could lead to a financial meltdown, which the US and European financial systems would be ill equipped to handle.
The Council for Foreign Relations shares data showing some interesting parallels between the current housing market and that of 2008. Those are the macroeconomic figures.
AEI considers how some of those trends map onto income inequality in the US.
China trade war
Closely related to economic concerns in the US, the simmering trade war between America and China entered a new chapter this week as the United States leveled fresh sanctions, some of them directly on the PLA.
Considering the drop in Chinese “monetary velocity”, AEI has concluded that tariffs might be getting the right result in punishing the Chinese economy for a variety of unfair practices. However, AEI argues that sanctions are ultimately the wrong way to approach the China trade imbalance. Writing for the Federalist, Helen Raleigh suggests that China is a long way from quitting in this fight, which would corroborate AEI’s conclusions.
Kuting down Kavanaugh
This last week, the confirmation hearings for Brett Kavanaugh seemed all but locked after a contentious week of committee politics. Wrapped up, that is, until the Washington Post broke a story about an alleged sexual assault that happened in Kavanaugh's high school days.
The revelation that spawned a flurry of moves and countermoves between Democrats and Republicans to not be seen as insensitive towards the woman accusing Kavanaugh.
Kavanaugh denies the allegations and is willing to take questions from the Senate Judiciary Committee, which he is supposed to do on Monday, but his accuser, Dr. Christine Blasey Ford, has yet to agree to an appearance before the Committee herself.
Conservative media, of course, has been in an uproar this week arguing that the allegations against Kavanaugh are weaponizing an individual’s traumatic experience to score political points.
Regardless of whether the allegations prove true or not, they will undoubtedly still have a electoral impact, which FiveThirtyEight explores.
India’s rise
Teaching a world politics class this week, I discussed with the students the importance of the rise of India. With all eyes on China as America's closest soon-to-be peer competitor it's easy to forget that there is another billion-person country right on China's doorstep.
China continues to get more aggressive in the region, but India is set to overtake China as the world's most populous country in just a few years, which points to a future power transition.
War on the Rocks considers India's potential strategy options for managing relations with China without threatening them.
With a sizable population and a fast growing economy, India’s growing energy needs will likely make a measurable impact on the global economy and carbon emissions.
The week in data
A couple of interesting bits of data and research this week:
Pew Research reports on demographic variance among American adults on the social media platforms on which they primarily consume news. I’m a little surprised that Instagram is considered a news platform.
Our World in Data assesses how effectively the world has achieved the Millennium Development goals.