Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, August 3, 2018
The Weekly Brief - August 3, 2018
“Death to the Penalty!”
It was a busy week in the Roman Catholic Church this week as Pope Francis officially changed the teachings of the Catholic Catechism to reject the death penalty as a valid form of criminal punishment.
While the decision drew praise, Pew Research indicates that the popular pope is facing ongoing criticism from U.S. Catholics on handling sex abuse scandals that the church is still working through.
Eyes on the economy
The big economic news of the last week was the trade war that wasn't. While China and the United States go back and forth on threatening increasing tariffs, the European Union successfully negotiated a trade war truce with President Trump.
The successful conclusion of what amounted to a trade skirmish rather than a trade war now sets the template for China to pursue Its own resolution with the United States. The American Enterprise Institute argues that far from the general assumption that Trump is protectionist, he may actually be trying to pursue a radical free-trade agenda with these threats of tariffs. We'll see.
Talks of trade truces come as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo unveiled American plans to increase investment in economic infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific region and the American economy continues to show signs of growth.
However, concerns are growing that the widening trade and budgetary deficits may lead to recessions both at home and abroad in the near future. And while trade deficits can certainly be a sign of a healthy economy and even be a contributor to higher employment, too many deficits in too many places can obviously have repercussions on the day-to-day lives of workers.
Rand Corp published a new study on the economic posture and behaviors of millennials who now form the bulk of the working class in America. The study was particularly insightful in Exploring the interaction between millennials economics stresses and policy concerns: They’re more concerned about economic policy than foreign policy and security, for example.
However, that focus on domestic economic concerns can skew one’s perspective on economic and political progress being made in the developing world.
The politics of polarization
Two unrelated stories got me thinking about the politics of polarization this week. First, Pew Research reports that Trump's approval ratings up to this point have been “unusually stable and deeply partisan.” Second, Graham Nash, writing in the Atlantic, notes that social movements have become far more partisan in their appeal and advocacy.
As if to demonstrate this, Facebook announced that they detected a misinformation influence campaign on its platform emanating from the Left side of the partisan divide. It could be polarization actually makes this type of voter manipulation easier as echo chambers get stronger.
This polarization also makes younger voters more distrustful of status quo elected officials and allows space for upstart political leaders to take control of political parties, as Politico believes Bernie Sanders is doing to the Democrats.
Think tanks have come to refer to these stresses on democratic systems as “democratic distress” in Europe and the United States, and it is that. But I see far less work being done on the day-to-day effect these trends of distress are having.
It seems like they're having mostly an effect of separation and reaction. Separation between individuals particularly those of different political persuasions, and (negative) reaction against anything not associated with one's group.
While these effects are well reported, they have the less acknowledged, but equally profound effect of obscuring the proper functioning of government. Ideological purity and perfection is made the enemy of common cause and sound policy. By way of example, I noticed very few media outlets picked up on the story that Trump made an objectively good, apparently bipartisan, pick to head the Office of Science and Technology Policy.
Turkey lays an egg
Al-Monitor reports that Turkey may have overplayed its hand in Syria and the surrounding region. As it's diplomatic rift with the United States continues to widen, President Trump levied new sanctions on Turkey this week. Additionally, Turkey is now facing the potential of losing Russian and Iranian support on developing pipeline projects as well. Turkey President Erdogan is finding that he has little room in which to maneuver given the increasingly fraught Turkish economy.
What’s happening in Nicaragua?
It's still on the back burner in terms of mainstream news, but America's Quarterly cited Amnesty International as confirming that the crisis in Nicaragua is escalating amid widespread human rights abuses. Conservative site Daily Signal is also picking up the Nicaragua story, detailing how the now three month old crisis came to be.
I found this to be a unique moment when sources of different political persuasions could agree that there was a serious problem in Nicaragua (another good thing obscured by polarization). Despite its lack of treatment in mainstream news this is a story worth paying attention to.
Pakistan’s future foreign policy
In the last couple of weeks we paid attention to the elections in Pakistan and Imran Khan is officially the new prime minister. The real question now is whether or not Imran Khan won by as big a margin as he seems to have won by.
In a country known for corrupt politics and slanted elections this is a relevant question especially for outside observers who are trying to determine the direction of Pakistan’s possible foreign policy. The Hudson Institute presents two different scenarios or perspectives on Pakistan's future foreign policy.
What is Russia winning?
While the story surrounding Russia and Trump continues to be focused on collusion and election meddling (which is, apparently, now the phrase of choice), research bodies are now focusing on a more pressing question: Is Russia really succeeding the way we think it's succeeding?
Carnegie Endowment suggests that Russia is not, in fact, winning, and that attempts to undermine the US and Europe is Russia cutting off its nose to spite its face.
Meanwhile, The Brookings Institute outlines the specific actions the Trump administration has taken to curtail Russian activities. What's very noticeable about this timeline is that many of the Trump administration's anti-Russia policy moves have come after many of the very same summits with allies that have been reported as going badly.
More on Morocco
I spotlighted Morocco last week as a country that we can expect to hear more on as an American partner in the Middle East North Africa region. Though that's largely because of the good work that Morocco's doing to maintain stability and grow its economy, it's also because as Libya becomes less stable migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa are starting to use what's known as the western route to reach Europe through Morocco and Spain.
News flashes and fire fights
Finally, a quick round up on some simmering conflicts around the world:
First, Al-Monitor reports that the war in Yemen is beginning to escalate as Houthi rebels seek to target Saudi Arabia and the UAE outside Yemeni territory. This broadening of the conflict could have serious regional repercussions.
Additionally, Libya is becoming increasingly unstable and risks becoming a failed state. Al-Monitor reports that this may be because France and Italy are vying for control of post-conflict Libya. Imperial impulses don't die easy.
And making its first appearance in this newsletter, the Long War Journal reports that the Taliban has taken control of two districts in eastern Afghanistan. In what seems to be a never-ending war, this latest setback for the central Afghani government may push American efforts forward to hammer out some kind of peace deal with the Taliban sooner rather than later.