Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, July 27, 2018
The Weekly Brief, July 27, 2018
After Helsinki: Be careful what you wish for
Almost two weeks after the Helsinki, theories abound as to how to explain it all. Theories range from the conspiratorial to the doomsday in describing Trump's performance and the summits effects. However, the Council on Foreign Relations indicates that there is a fairly straightforward interpretation: Trump is using summit diplomacy differently from previous presidents. The unpredictability of that approach coupled with the individual doing it contributes to the general freak out.
Another reason for the freak out is because there might be a gap between what people expect the president to say and what he in fact says. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace suggests that now might be the time to actually start taking what Trump says at face value; not reading more, or less, into it.
Another interesting element to the Helsinki postmortems is the gauging of the Russian response. Carnegie Endowment notes that Moscow must be celebrating the outcome of the summit as being a very good outing for Vladimir Putin, but the Brookings Institute points out that a politically isolated and cornered president is not the result Russia wants if indeed Trump is to be Moscow’s man in Washington.
In fact, Trump's comments and his apparent willingness to overlook Russian aggression may actually be painting him into a corner when it comes to engaging with Russia as Congress is explores options for limiting the president on foreign policy.
This leads some experts to conclude that if Russia's goal is merely to undermine American democracy and advance Russian interests, then we can expect any future election interference to be focused on supporting Democrats and not Republicans.
The Great Game returns
Shortly after the conclusion of talks with Vladimir Putin, we still don't know what happened in that meeting behind closed doors, Trump has a new diplomatic target: the ayatollahs of Iran. Earlier this week, Trump again took to Twitter to THREATEN the Iranian government.
The response was typical of the reaction to Trump's Twitter feed: words used to describe the tweet included “reckless,” “threatening,” “bullying” and so forth.
Safe to say, this is the opening of a new diplomatic initiative pushing back on Iranian influence in the Mid East and renegotiating the JCPOA. Of course, the success of such a gambit is unclear, but it stands to reason that this may very well have been a topic of conversation in Helsinki.
The timing of this and other movement in the Middle East is quite interesting. Consider the following:
Al-monitor reports that after Helsinki there seems to be a Russian shift in its position on the presence of Iranian troops in Syria. Al-Monitor notes that this shift comes after a trip to Moscow by one of Iran's chief diplomats which coincided with a trip to Moscow by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Considering these movements came the week prior to Helsinki, and now Trump is beginning to pressure Iran at the same time Iran may be looking to sidestep its commitments in Syria suggest that a certain diplomatic movement is being coordinated that could indeed see some changes on the ground in Syria.
Israel itself might be feeling confident in pushing back on Iran if it senses that America and Russia both have an interest in removing the Iranian presence in Syria. Additionally, it seems that Iran’s erstwhile ally, Hamas, is losing steam in its ongoing conflict with Israel.
What Donald Trump, or at least his team, may be seeing, then, is an opening to advantageously engage Iran.
Trump and his base
Polls last week found that the majority of Republicans approved of Donald Trump's performance in Helsinki, but AEI is not buying it. Fivethirtyeight seems to back them up, indicating that the criticism of Trump's performance coming from GOP leaders does exert influence on the president’s post summit rhetoric and actions.
The bipartisan reaction to the summit leaves Trump with less room to maneuver politically, which is going to pose a challenge to move other legislative agenda items forward.
Meanwhile, the results of the latest Mueller indictment have some observers wondering if the GOP is experiencing its own Alger Hiss moment? Such a historical parallel reminds us of the lasting impact an apparent sideshow can have on a party’s future.
Dems and their base
As attention is given to the brewing conflict within the Republican Party over Trump's divisive policies, the Democratic Party seeks to shore up its base ahead of midterm elections. A big part of that is ensuring the continued loyalty of the African-American voters. The Atlantic reports on the Party’s bridge building work being done to try to shore up African-American support. Goodwill measures aside, the future of a very different Democratic Party is taking shape. The Atlantic spotlights this difference in the contrast between Dianne Feinstein and former California State Senator Kevin De Leon.
Iraq update
I shared a story a couple weeks ago about the uncertain future of Iraq’s coalition government led by Muqtada al-Sadr. With the government yet to form, the Iraqi population is getting increasingly unsettled. War on the Rocks reports that among young Iraqis, who have known nothing but war, the comparative stability of the Saddam Hussein years and the authoritarianism that enforced it seems very attractive.
I should also note that the crisis in Iraq is not just political. Drought and water shortages are exacerbated by the corruption and incapacity of the central government. If this is democracy, Iraq seems to be getting tired of it quickly.
As Iraq lurches towards chaos and Iran seeks to take advantage, this may force the United States to take a second look at supporting an independent Kurdistan.
Morocco: The silent ally
With Iraq verging towards chaos, Iran ascendant and Syria still a hell hole, it's worth considering America's posture in the broader Middle East. Of course, the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia and Israel remain consistent American allies. However, with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States bogged down in Yemen and Israel dealing with its own internal pressures and external threats, reliable allies in the Middle East can be hard to come by. This is why we should be paying more attention to Morocco. Morocco is coming off a year of major economic growth, strengthening trade deals with the EU, and remains politically stable. In an unpredictable region this mostly predictable kingdom is a good a place as any to deepen military cooperation.
No Go on NoKo Nukes?
They say the proof is in the pudding and a lot of North Korea skeptics stand by this principle in their assessments of North Korea-US relations post Singapore. So far, it seems to be mixed signals. Asia Times reports that North Korea is dismantling a satellite launch site, which I guess could also be used to launch missiles. But, Daily Signal argues that moves like these are empty gestures as such sites don't really have anything to do with the nuclear program. The Council on Foreign Relations supplies some insight on the possible future of North Korea-US relations.
Trade wars
It's getting increasingly difficult to keep track of the overlapping trade wars that Donald Trump has going on. Coming off of a rough week of European summits, trade war rumors swirled regarding American-EU trade relations, but those seem to have died down.
China's response to tariffs is to solidify and strengthen its own trade relations with the BRIC countries in an attempt to build some kind of firewall against the loss of American trade.
While a lot of attention is focused on the China-America trade war, we should also be giving attention to the missed opportunities tade wars are creating. In our own hemisphere, Latin American countries are looking to diversify their trade portfolios away from the US as a check against any hostile tariffs.
Prime time in Pakistan
Following up on a news item from last week, early returns indicate that Imran Khan will, in fact, be the new prime minister of Pakistan. This raises a lot of questions regarding the future of Pakistani democracy as Khan is considered to be a favorite of the army generals.