Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, July 13, 2018

The Weekly Brief - July 13, 2018

Ain't no summit like a NATO summit

Many foreign policy observers this last week noted that the annual NATO summit has, until recently, largely been a photo op affair for heads of states to meet together and discuss fairly boring diplomatic initiatives. Now, the summit has become high theater given Trump's penchant for delivering some tirade on the lack of NATO allies supporting the US. Germany again came in for withering criticism by Trump for its failure to increase its military and defense spending to meet treaty obligations.

The issue on defense spending has been the main thrust of Trump's NATO critique and while some savings would certainly accrue to the US if the NATO allies were to increase their spending on defense, Brookings notes that it might be marginal at best. In other words, insisting on paying dues while ignoring the other benefits the alliance provides is not good diplomacy.

And while all eyes were on the the rhetoric of the president, the NATO summit was also an opportunity for many observers to note that NATO actually is facing some serious policy problems, perhaps the least of which is member countries falling behind on defense funding.

First, AEI notes NATO strategic problem lies not just in shrinking European militaries, but in a shrinking American military as well. Additionally, democratic backsliding by newer NATO members, particularly those in Eastern Europe, presents a real threat to the political stability of the alliance. These very real issues were pushed largely to the background in the midst of Trump's anti-Germany tirade.

Some observers noted Trump's complaints about burden-sharing and ally commitments are not new in American diplomacy in fact we've been around for quite some time. What is new is the complete lack of tact a or decorum in making those criticisms public. That being said, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace points out that NATO has long been in need of reform, and Trump’s tirades may just help push it in that direction.

To Russia with concern

After a rough and tumble outing at the NATO Summit in Brussels this week, president Trump is off to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki on Monday. It's a meeting that is fraught with pitfalls as there are several flashpoints in Russian-American relations at the moment.

This does not inspire confidence in American observers that Trump will be able to hold his own against the more seasoned, and possibly more prepared, Putin. Supporters of Trump would point out that this is what many detractors said of Reagan before his breakthrough meeting with Gorbachev in Reykjavik in the 1980s.

However, Reagan had a united transatlantic alliance behind them while Trump has decidedly weakened ties with the NATO powers. Given the context, some are wondering whether it's even a good idea for Trump to go through with the Putin meeting but that's mostly speculative. What is much less speculative are the real consequences if Trump makes concessions at the expense of European allies, a potential nightmare for American diplomacy.

Given Trump's less than supportive stance towards NATO, it should be noted that any meeting with the Russians could have very real consequences. Politico details one of those consequential areas in the Baltic states, Estonia, one of the potential flashpoints of future NATO-Russian conflict.

Trade War II

While it seems that Trump never meets a trade war he doesn’t like, he should probably pay attention to the fact that what happens in the realm of defense diplomacy could affect the realm of economic diplomacy.

As the trade war with China opens its second round a flurry of news stories noted that China was about ready to receive some major foreign investment in the form of a new Tesla plant and German manufacturing expansion in China. It amounts to billions of dollars worth of foreign investment, but Asia Times notes that this may be at the expense of Chinese domestic car makers.

This sends the trade war into a new chapter as China may be starting to see a strategic advantage in Trump's travails with his transatlantic allies. By moving to build economic ties with Europe, particularly alienated Germany, a fellow victim of Trump's tariffs, China may be seeking to build a economic bloc of some of the strongest economies in opposition to the US.

Encouraging news on American democracy and citizenship

Pew Research published two very interesting studies over the last week. One study highlighted how Americans view their relationship to their country and a second analyzed how political activism is pursued in the age of social media.

Taken together, the two studies indicate that while most Americans overwhelmingly view living in the United States as a positive there is deep concern over the politics.

This is actually encouraging to me since one of the major concerns I have about citizenship is that people are unwilling to separate their politics from their country and see the two as separate, though closely related, entities. Pew seems to indicate that many Americans, indeed most Americans, can make that distinction. This might be what fuels the social media activism, but it may not necessarily be the most effectual forms of activism.

A big reason for this could be because of the amount of misinformation on social media skews debate and misdirects activist energy. Additionally, AEI reports that the culture war narrative that divides America into the urban and rural communities that are increasingly polarized in their approaches to life is actually not as big as is generally thought.

Even as people express concern over American democracy one theme emerges in recent research: American people are far more unified in terms of their concerns, priorities, and general positive affinity for America than is often thought.

So this got me thinking, why do some of these culture war narratives have such a strong hold? It could be because filter bubbles don't influence the plebeians, but the patricians as well. I found the summer reading list of notable political elites to be enlightening in this regard. The topics covered are as broad as the political spectrum, but it was interesting to note that there was still a lot of self-selecting going on.

Meanwhile...

Widening the scope of this newsletter to look at broader global issues, it was world population day this last week and Brookings Institute provides 10 useful facts on what to know about the world population.

Coincidentally, as though on cue, the North Africa Post reports on famine conditions in the Sahel due to conflict and environmental degradation that now threatens over 6 million people.

And in a move that would cheer energy markets, Libya has reopened key oil terminals on the Mediterranean coast which suggests both that the national government is stabilizing the country and that concerns about high energy prices over the summer may be unfounded.