Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, June 29, 2018

The Weekly Brief - June 29, 2018

Just a quick note before the brief proper: I'm going to be taking a short break next week to enjoy the holiday and the end of teaching summer classes. So, next week's newsletter will be sent out on Thursday, July 5th, and look at more topical... topics. Now, onwards!

The new digital economy

News cycles always makes it difficult to stay on top of “quiet trends.” Trends like automation and the development of the digital economy. You know, the small things.

And yet automation and the digital revolution continue on apace leaving indelible marks on our science, economy, and environment. The Council on Foreign Relations notes that energy markets are being dramatically changed, but the verdict is out on whether that will do anything for climate change.

A new study shows that there are certain jobs less likely to be automated in the near future and those jobs are, interestingly enough, in technological fields as automation still requires human oversight. The American Enterprise Institute notes that even with concerns surrounding automation, there is still a major upside to the digital revolution and that is the massive reduction in prices thanks to e-commerce.

One of the downsides, though, is that competition could be reduced in the digital economy for a variety of reasons not the least of which is access to material. And it's not just access to digital materials, but also access to physical materials.

The digital revolution is powered by electric grids and batteries, and the ingredients for those physical elements are becoming a hot commodity like cobalt, which is mined in Africa. Cobalt happens to be mined in regions that are plagued by conflict with little environmental oversight (strip mining, anyone?) or economic stability (read, massive wealth gaps), both major concerns on the continent going forward. This is more significant when we dovetail this development with ongoing efforts to reduce poverty.

In other words, sub-Saharan Africa contains the physical resources that can transform the economies of that region and lift millions out of poverty, but that will only happen if the region can be stabilized. Like so many things, the digital economy is a maze of pros and cons that policymakers and analysts are still working through.

Rock, paper, SCOTUS

Wow, busy week in the Supreme Court, and this was before the retirement party invites got sent out. In several rulings, the Supreme Court handed down decisions on major social and policy issues. I don’t want to rehash all the writing that’s been done on this, so here is a summary of the rulings:

Public sector unions can no longer require union dues from public employees who are not union members.

The court struck down a California law requiring crisis pregnancy centers to advertise abortion services at other locations (crisis pregnancy centers operate as an alternative to abortion).

States can levy state sales taxes on e-commerce and online purchases, which may be a boon to state coffers, but also to a raft of new regulations.

And finally the Court upheld the Trump administration’s so-called travel ban, which prevents the entry of persons into the United from certain countries deemed security threats.

With all these rulings, I’ve noted that much of the reportage has been on looking at the political ramifications of these rulings without really considering the Constitutional parameters in which these rulings occur.

I am concerned that this is contributing to a certain understanding of the American political system where the executive and judiciary branches are perceived as having almost unlimited power to make and interpret the law while Congress is a do-nothing third wheel. It views power as residing in persons, not the law.

Additionally, the tendency to view the Supreme Court in strictly partisan terms is unhealthy in that it does not seem to assist in constructing any kind of agreed upon platform on which policy and governance decision can be made. Court rulings put limits on the levers of power, which should lead to more pragmatic, creative, and yes, bipartisan problem solving.

There goes the swing vote

And I thought immigration was whipping everyone into a hysteria. Placing immigration on the back burner was the announcement this week that 83-year old Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy would be retiring in July.

Kennedy developed a reputation as the swing voter on the otherwise balanced Court and his retirement in the midst of a Trump presidency raises more than concerns, it's raising alarm bells on the left side of the political aisle. Fears seem to center mostly around the potential overturning of 1973 Roe v Wade decision on abortion, but that, of course, is largely going to depend on what cases come before the Court and who Trump nominates out of a list of 25 candidates.

The unfortunate thing about the retirement of Kennedy, who made a substantial domestic and global impact in his 30-year tenure, is that he's getting mixed up in the hyperbolic partisan wrangling. That's not to say that the political implications are unimportant, they are, and Democrats particularly feel it.

However, it would do an injustice to the man's career to make it all about the partisan politics. And while I'm on the subject of partisan politics, it might be helpful to know that some initial research seems to be indicating that Democrats and Republicans are assuming the worst of each other to the point where they don't really understand one another. In fact, the caricatures are so far off base, they’re not even realistic anymore.

Ocasio-Cortez who?

Quick side note on the ongoing primary elections. In a shocking upset reminiscent of Tea Party upsets in 2010, a self-proclaimed millennial democratic socialist just upset a sitting Democrat Congressman in New York City. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be one of the youngest members in the Congressional elections in November and is already becoming something of a media darling. Her rise is the latest chapter in the oft underreported schism between Democratic party Old Guard and the rising socialist democratic wing in the Democratic party.

From the halls of Montezuma to the Dagobah System...

Last week, Donald Trump announced that he was directing the Department of Defense to start the development of a space force as a separate branch of the military. Critics immediately noted that this could start a arms race in space, but Todd Harrison at the Center for Strategic and International Studies notes that there are some compelling reasons to create a separate space force.

Those reasons just aren’t as awesome as people’s imaginations, which are a far more grand and explosive. Admittedly, a lot of the criticism seems to stem more from people's visions of what a space force implies, which, let's face it, is largely set in 1980s kids cartoons.

Turkey elections: Erdo-won

Sunday saw the election or rather reelection of Recep Erdogan as Turkey's president, but only narrowly. Erdogan won just 53% of the vote in what was considered a mixed bag of an election.

Despite the triumph of reelection, Erdogan still faces major headwinds in the Turkish economy, balancing relations with Russia and the United States, and ongoing international opprobrium as he establishes his status as one of the world's leading strong men.

The rise and entrenchment of strongmen governments like Putin in Russia or Erdogan in Turkey, and the rise of nativist eurosceptic parties in Europe has some wondering if the nation state is fading?

Immigration followup

President Trump signed an executive order keeping families together after illegal border crossings, but the immigration debate is far from over. Despite violent debate across the political spectrum on the status of immigrants there has, unfortunately, been little analysis done on the actual problems that are sending people fleeing from Central American countries.

Especially with elections happening in Mexico this week, the instability and violence in that particular country underscores the high levels of political violence throughout the region. And America is not the only country that that these immigrants are heading too. It's becoming a situation where economic and political instability is creating a negative feedback loop that's making life unsustainable for people.

So, policy solutions need to look beyond border control and engage with foreign policy and trade policy. The American Enterprise Institute suggest that free trade zones in Central America could help address the brain drain by creating new economic opportunities. However, that solution requires a degree of political stability the region does not seem to currently possess.

Eye on the Trade War

As the trade war with China heats up, a lot of attention is now being given to the Chinese economy, which some financial observers view as being on the teetering point of panic.

A trade war could push China over the edge to taking more desperate measures, something the Council on Foreign Relations is thinking about. CFR considers what would happen to the national and global economy if China started selling of its treasury portfolio as a cash raising measure.

Simmering conflicts and truce in Afghanistan

Meanwhile, in the world of conflict, a ceasefire in Syria is breaking down ahead US-Russia talks, but good news in Afghanistan! The ceasefire there continues to hold, leaving renewed hope of a peaceful settlement between the Taliban and the central government.