Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, June 22, 2018

The Weekly Brief - June 22, 2018

It now has a name: Democratic Distress

Over the course of this year I've shared many articles tracking threats to democracy in the United States and the broader Western world. The major concern is that in a world where the US president has little respect for international norms and institutions global democracy will suffer.

That conversation has been given a renewed boost by a sizable study at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace that has given those concerns a name: Democratic distress. It’s a term that I think you'll be hearing more of as people try to discuss the effect of certain political trends in the western world.

One of the test cases of democratic distress and where it could lead is the Turkish election that's coming up and is expected to be fairly rampant with corruption. Another sign of democratic distress, although not limited to democracy, is a Pew Research survey that has found global restrictions on religion have gone up since 2016.

However, lest we get too concerned about democratic distress and what it means, War on the Rocks reminds us that the liberal order that so many seem to be concerned about is not a fixed institution and that it is somewhat fragile by definition, so flux and change is part of that same international order. The question, then, is one the nature of and limits of change.

Immigration and family separation

Debate over immigration policy went viral over the last couple of weeks with increased reportage on a federal policy of family separations at border crossings and ICE detention centers.

The American populace is justifiably angry about such an insensitive enforcement of policy, they largely support legal status for children brought to the United States illegally, but much of the debate over immigration policy fails to really consider the scale of the migration problem.

Though the Trump administration and its supporters have largely focused on the idea of strict, zero tolerance law enforcement, others have criticized the mode of enforcement as being unjust or dehumanizing. But that's largely where the debate has started and stopped: on the nature of the law enforcement.

Relatively few sources, and most of them coming from the conservative blogosphere and news outlets, note that a reason the law enforcement looks the way it does is because of flaws in existing legislation; and the failure of immigration legislation and policy to adjust to changes in the immigration flows to the United States.

So while President Trump eventually responded to the controversy by signing an executive order to end family separations, that doesn't mean the problem is fixed. In fact it is far from fixed. Unfortunately, current media discussions and news reporting is not covering those other more complicated elements of forming comprehensive immigration reform policies.

Interestingly, one of the places that I got the most balanced overview of just what is going on at the border and the laws on the books that are affecting it came from the religious website The Gospel Coalition.

Germany’s migration debate

America isn't the only country dealing with an immigration debate. Germany is also facing an ongoing discussion over its immigration policies that have become the Achilles heel for Chancellor Angela Merkel. Der Spiegel reports this issue is a blindspot for Merkel as she tries to hold her very weak governing coalition together.

Pew Research notes that while there is great variety of opinion among Europeans regarding migrants, the uptick in anti-immigrant sentiment is noticeable, especially in countries with large migration inflows, countries like Germany.

Fallout: Singapore DLC

With the release of Bethesda Games newest edition of its iconic Fallout franchise, I couldn’t help the gaming reference.

The summit might be over, but the sticky details still need to be ironed out as the Carnegie for International Peace reminds us that North Korea is still a nuclear threat. So this means that attention must now be given to the lay of the diplomatic landscape post Singapore.

One of the most significant and immediate changes is the halt of US-South Korea joint military exercises. Though this might seem to be something that would weaken US-South Korean ties, it may actually help build South Korean relations with Japan.

And while the summit has come in for its share of criticism, Brookings Institute offers some insight into what the game could look like going forward, arguing that we shouldn't be dismissive of the results small though they at first appear.

China’s economy slowing?

With the North Korea summit concluded and many people suggesting that China was the big winner, the real question about China, going forward, is not its diplomatic chops or its military presence in the South China Sea, but its economy. Another round of US tariffs stoking trade war talks could actually have a negative impact on economic growth.

These tariffs are hitting as the Chinese economy is cooling, which is prompting the central bank to ease lending restrictions. Why would China do such a thing? Well according to Asia Times, China has seen a record number of corporate defaults this year.

Secondly, Asia as a whole has been seeing a foreign investor flight of a scale not seen since 2008. China’s social policy may also be playing a role as its social credit system begins to limit the movement of people and goods.

So China actually has some economic headwinds to work against. Strategically and diplomatically, though, America still has its own choices to make.

Israel winning with diplomatic small ball

Attention has been focused on America's Asia diplomacy, but the Middle East has not stayed silent. Most notably, Israel has been working a strong diplomatic game to limit Iranian influence in Syria and to isolate Syria from some of its larger foreign supporters, most notably Russia. This may have contributed to Syrian president Bashar al-Assad publicly stating his openness to the presence of Iranian military bases in Syria as there seems to now be limits on Russian military involvement.

Though the presence of Iranian bases may raise concerns over Iranian-Israeli conflict, southern Syria is a very sensitive region that most players would seek to avoid conflict in. Regional politics isn't the only place where Israel seems to be scoring diplomatic victories. The Council on Foreign Relations offers two articles on subtle but significant changes in UN diplomacy that indicate cracks in the anti-Israeli bloc in that body.

The week in war

Finally, a super interesting article to tie up the week. Similar to what I try to do here on the Weekly Brief, the Council on Foreign Relations has a weekly post that gives you an overview of intra and inter-state conflict in the past read. Super helpful read.