Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, June 1, 2018
The Weekly Brief - June 1, 2018
The real “Pacific Rim”
The on-again-off-again rhetoric of a trade war with China highlights more than just America's East Asia strategy. It underscores the increasing importance of what has become known as the Indo-Pacific region.
This region stretches from the east coast of Africa to the archipelagos of Southeast Asia. in this region, China, America, and India vie for dominance in what is becoming the great geopolitical stage of the 21st Century. While strategic thought is understandably focused on American-Chinese relations and East Asia, it would be a mistake to overlook the politics and promise of Africa.
Italeave? (stole that one from my sister)
The European Union got another shock this last week with the sweeping electoral victories of anti-EU parties in parliamentary elections. These groups, largely unknown to outsiders now hold the future of the European Union in their hands.
Of course, it might be overstating it a bit to put it that way, but after Brexit the central EU leadership cannot afford another large economy exiting the bloc. This creates all sorts of confusion over just how italy will relate to the rest of Europe going forward and the rest of the world in general.
While the European leadership puts a brave face on it some are more skeptical on the future of the united Europe project.
Iran update
Post US withdrawal from the Iran deal, most observers remain skeptical of any real strategy the Trump administration has for reentering any kind of negotiation or establishing any meaningful sanctions regime on its own.
Skepticism notwithstanding, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo gave a speech last week where he outlined what could be called the beginnings of a strategy or at least the bargaining position of the United States vis a vis Iran.
Pompeo wasn't the only one setting conditions. Iranian leaders also made their own conditions, but not directed at the United States. Rather, conditions were set for Europe outlining what Europeans need to do to stay in the deal.
The question arises, why would Iran even want to stay in the deal when America is giving them an exit? The American Enterprise Institute suggests one reason may be because the Iranian regime is weaker than it appears.
Back in the summit again
In the on again off again drama of summit diplomacy between the United States and North Korea the question of the last week was whether it's on or off? After a letter from Trump signaling the cancellation of the summit, it appears to now to be back on the schedule.
While most Americans see this as flip-flopping or confusion or lack of strategy, the diplomatic dance that has characterized the run-up to a summit has made for some interesting analysis in terms of cultural distinctives in communication.
Democracy
Tuesday is another round of primaries in the run-up to the midterm elections in the United States. In the general angst following the 2016 elections, many proposals are being floated about how to fix America’s electoral system. David Brooks makes a particularly interesting case for ranked-choice voting and multi-member districts. But it's not just the United States that's anticipating elections in the Western Hemisphere.
South America has also seen many elections over the last couple of weeks with Brazil being next. It is the latest country to be questioning its democracy and generally feeling skeptical about its future. In Europe, another round of elections raises the question of ongoing Russian interference.
Many remain skeptical that the West is ready for Russian interference and the new technologies that may be used to interfere in elections. Technology also plays a role in questions surrounding America's electoral system. Even though the 2016 election gave rise to much skepticism 538 notes that the polling systems are still largely accurate despite the recent bad press.
AUMF 2.0
We talked about an updated authorized use of military force (AUMF) document in past editions of this newsletter, so this is a quick note to update readers on the proposed AUMF currently before the Senate: You can read the document on the Lawfare blog.