Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, May 18, 2018
The Weekly Brief - May 18, 2018
JCPOA Fallout Week 1
The Talking Heads have taken over in the immediate aftermath of the US withdrawal from the JCPOA, or Iran Deal if you prefer. As is typical in a polarized political environment, opinion has come down on one of two sides. Either you disagree with the decision and believe Trump made a strategically flawed even “lousy” decision in withdrawing America from the deal.
OR you see the decision as a strong new direction for American foreign policy that does not tolerate thuggish regimes who continue to manipulate the international system. Depending on who you ask, you get a very different picture of what the world will look like as a result of this decision.
Former Obama administration staffers were out in force trying to save it but that certainly is not the only story being told. To get a better sense of all the potential outcomes and reactions to this decision I decided to dedicate this newsletter to doing a quick run around the world to gauge reaction.
US and Europe
Establishment opinion that disagrees with Trump's decision to withdraw from the deal largely focuses on the effect this decision will have on our European allies. The possibility of the US placing fresh sanctions on Iran could indeed deeply impact European economies which have business deals with Iran on the table. And while certain pundits look to Europe to help preserve the deal, this seems an unlikely outcome.
At the end of the day, however, Europe has more challenges than just Iran. Russia looms large and, for the most part, has been contained by a united Europe. Rand Corp recognizes that Europe's collective defense policy is moving forward. Of course, the global reach of Europe is still limited despite the EU's gargantuan combined economy. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argues that this will continue to be the case until Merkel-led Germany takes a more activist approach to foreign policy.
Bottom line: America's withdrawal from the Iran deal seems to be creating a rupture for Europe-US relations, but there are more pressing issues that require US-European cooperation.
US and Israel
As Israel celebrates its 70th birthday and the move of the US Embassy to Jerusalem the country also was addressing fresh international condemnation for alleged human rights abuses in the wake of confrontations with Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip. As Iran's main target in the Middle East, Israel stands to lose the most from a revamped or renewed Iran nuclear program.
Surprisingly, however, Israel seems at ease with America's withdrawal from the deal. It could be because Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been able to exercise a degree of influence vis a vis Iran on the world's two most powerful militaries - the US and Russia. Asia Times reports that Russia withdrew delivery of missiles to Syria after Netanyahu's visit to Moscow last week. This indicates an Israeli ability to triangulate cooperation with America and Russia as a way of isolating Iran.
Bottom line: Israel doesn't seem to be too bothered by America's withdrawal from the deal.
US and the Rest
For other friends and allies around the world, US withdrawal from the Iran deal poses additional complications. Turkey's ongoing military intervention in Syria faces fresh complications as it seeks to cooperate with Russia and Iran, yet is an ally of the United States which is actively seeking to antagonize Iran.
For its part, India must consider alternative fuel lines if fresh sanctions were to cut its supply of oil from Iran. Lawfare notes, however, that India is unlikely to jeopardize continued cooperation with the United States for Iranian oil.
China indeed seems to be the country that stands to benefit the most from the situation, but this will largely depend on the European response as well. Certainly, if America, Europe, and Russia all agreed to put sanctions back on Iran, then China will face a critical choice about who they're willing to support.
Saudi Arabia, who I noted in last week's newsletter was no friend of the deal, also has other things to give its attention to like a renewed and re-branded Al-Qaeda that is returning to its roots in contesting the legitimacy of the Saudi monarchy.
Bottom line: For many countries around the world, American withdrawal from the Iran deal appears to be something of an inconvenience but not necessarily a moment of existential angst. US withdrawal from the Iran deal is significant, but it may not be Most Significant for most countries.
US and Itself
Of course, you wouldn't exactly get that sense of perspective and priority by looking at the polarized reporting surrounding Iran. Conor Friedersdorf at the Atlantic argues that the polarizing rhetoric that has come to characterize American politics is developing its own negative feedback loop, which is contributing to the dominance of extreme voices on the right and the left.
This will be incredibly interesting to watch as the 2018 midterm elections develop. In an initial round of primaries this last week, more progressive candidates seemed to fare pretty well in Democratic primaries which indicates the emergence of a Tea Party-esque wing in the Democratic Party.
However, that might not translate into quite the Congressional control Democrats are hoping for as Politico reports the decreasing likelihood of Democrats retaking the Senate. More conservative media outlets also note that the support for Trump's agenda continues to rise among traditionally reliable Democratic voting blocs like the African American community.